TTC: Flexity Streetcars Testing & Delivery (Bombardier)

[pstogios]

Realistically I don't see Spadina being fully converted until we have at least 17 in service, which provides for 2 on 509 and 2 for training/as spares. So, 4418 is my estimate.

Yes of course, we have to account for the black hole of training whereby too many streetcars are taken out of service perpetually.

Honestly we are so far away from full conversion of Spadina. There are only 4 on 510 and 3 on 509 right now. It's like we're way back in April or something. This is what I mean -- TTC gets new streetcars (one step forward) but takes another one or two out of service (one step back) for some stupid reason.

How can we even think about full conversion of 510 right now?

 

[nfitz]

Holy cow. Ridership grew 33% since 2009!? That's crazy growth.

And 53% since 2005. I hadn't actually realised how much streetcar usage had increased until I looked at the numbers.

I know there were growth assumptions built into the 204 Flexities - but I don't think that they were anywhere close to a 50% ridership increase before they even arrived. Even now, I start to question it, and went back to the data. 42.8 million a year in 2005, increasing to 65.4 million in 2014.

I think some have questioned why they need to add 60 more cars (29% increase) so soon. Because ridership is up 53% since they chose 204 cars.

I've been convinced for a while that there's a lot of latent demand that is unmet because lack of capacity and poor service. If they fix both these issues (which isn't reflected in even the 2014 data) then it could be interesting.

I wonder how much of the growth is from the NextVehicle data. I know I'm much more likely to choose to take the streetcar other subway now - streetcar is only slightly faster, but you are totally messed up if there's a 20-minute gap. But with the NextVehicle information, you know that it's coming - and you know when it's worthwhile taking a different route, or using a less convenient route along the subway. There was a huge jump in ridership in 2006 and then in 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2014. Not sure what caused 2006 ... but I wonder if the more recent ones were influenced by better predictability.

 

[nfitz]

Honestly we are so far away from full conversion of Spadina. There are only 4 on 510 and 3 on 509 right now. It's like we're way back in April or something.

Only 7 streetcars in service (I'm seeing the same. But we only have 9. 2 out of 9 not in service is the prescribed spare level.

In April they only had 5 cars - I doubt you saw 7 in service!

I think you need to temper your expectations a bit. 7 out of 9 is probably better than it's going to be many days, between training, and getting some cars over to Leslie to start testing out all the track and equipment, and accidents, maintenance, etc.

 

[pstogios]

I think you need to temper your expectations a bit.

Yes this is very true. I should ignore his thread for 6 months and then check in again. Maybe then we'll have 510 converted. It feels like it's going to take that long. Don't tell me BBD will meet their 1 streetcar/week commitment - that's a commitment worth as much as the piece of paper it was written on.

 

[EastYorkTTCFan]

Yes this is very true. I should ignore his thread for 6 months and then check in again. Maybe then we'll have 510 converted. It feels like it's going to take that long. Don't tell me BBD will meet their 1 streetcar/week commitment - that's a commitment worth as much as the piece of paper it was written on.

and you know this becuase you work for them or something?

 

[drum118]

I said in 2005 when we started this process that ridership demand will out strip the 204 cars once they are on line as they will open up an area that is under-serve now which is the strollers, bikes and most of all, the accessibility community let alone the elderly. One reason I push for the 1:1.

Not only the under server market, but riders who gave up trying to use the existing fleet as well all the new residents who are out stripping the supply and demand for the new cars. There more pent up demand out there for service even with the 264 cars, that they are not going to be able to handle the increase demands come 2018 or when every.

I can't believe people getting into knot if all cars are line or not. Sit back and have a cold one as it will not be until 2016 before any line is 100% new cars, if then.

The King line needs to be 100% pan ready before we get pans into operation. Then look for the big eyes on people seeing these pans in operation for the first time.

 

[EastYorkTTCFan]

I said in 2005 when we started this process that ridership demand will out strip the 204 cars once they are on line as they will open up an area that is under-serve now which is the strollers, bikes and most of all, the accessibility community let alone the elderly. One reason I push for the 1:1.

Not only the under server market, but riders who gave up trying to use the existing fleet as well all the new residents who are out stripping the supply and demand for the new cars. There more pent up demand out there for service even with the 264 cars, that they are not going to be able to handle the increase demands come 2018 or when every.

I can't believe people getting into knot if all cars are line or not. Sit back and have a cold one as it will not be until 2016 before any line is 100% new cars, if then.

The King line needs to be 100% pan ready before we get pans into operation. Then look for the big eyes on people seeing these pans in operation for the first time.

I agree with everything you just said. I kind of get excited every time I see a new one is on it;s way and then when it gets in service it's like christmas morning when your a kid. I'm actually kind of excited to see one with the pan up in service and can't believe it will be the end of the trolley pole in Toronto. Although wasn't there at some point where they were going to do it when they were bring the CLRV's and ALRVs on line?

 

[georgevicbell]

My understanding is that the 60 extra would essentially max out the existing and new barns/carhouses...is that correct? I'm wondering if 60 is going to be enough...given that they would be arriving 4-6 years from now especially if some of them get eaten up by eastern waterfront and any other minor expansions that happen in that time (I'm thinking eliminating or moving any short-turns). We could easily be talking another 20-30% ridership especially given that there is already a plan to retain some of the existing fleet (which will need to be replaced eventually). If there are any additional road-pricing schemes or increased construction on highways it may push the numbers higher than that.

Tory should be getting out in front of road pricing and saying if the tolls are going to be implemented this is what needs to be in place before it happens...X number of extra streetcars, X number of extra buses, X number of extra Go Trains/busses and the city gets X% of the profit. Any plan to do it will need to have a large lead time to get these items in place.

 

[drum118]

My understanding is that the 60 extra would essentially max out the existing and new barns/carhouses...is that correct? I'm wondering if 60 is going to be enough...given that they would be arriving 4-6 years from now especially if some of them get eaten up by eastern waterfront and any other minor expansions that happen in that time (I'm thinking eliminating or moving any short-turns). We could easily be talking another 20-30% ridership especially given that there is already a plan to retain some of the existing fleet (which will need to be replaced eventually). If there are any additional road-pricing schemes or increased construction on highways it may push the numbers higher than that.

Tory should be getting out in front of road pricing and saying if the tolls are going to be implemented this is what needs to be in place before it happens...X number of extra streetcars, X number of extra buses, X number of extra Go Trains/busses and the city gets X% of the profit. Any plan to do it will need to have a large lead time to get these items in place.

264 is not enough cars that will be needed even before the Portlands every gets built. We need another carhouse. It maybe in 2005 where I was calling for close to 600 cars city wide to be used on lines that were to become part of Transit City as well going out into the 905. If we every get off our asses and start building more lines and extending them, we will by pass 600 very easy. We got just over 400 now in the works.

I would put a toll of $2.50 per trip to use the parking lot highways and it will reduce some traffic, but not much since some drivers will use bypass road with longer travel time. It could be up and running by 2018 very easy.

 

[Napoleon]

Holy cow. Ridership grew 33% since 2009!? That's crazy growth.

Not surprised. Just step outside in the downtown core and look around: cranes, cranes, and more cranes. Or you can flip forums on this site and read about glass-box condo after glass-box condo. By and large people without cars are buying these places in the urban core and adding hugely to the transportation demand. And since Toronto doesn't actually have an urban planning process (I know I'm being a difficult outsider who moved to Toronto, but it really is a bad process), infrastructure is left to play catch-up.

 

[Edward Skira]

And 53% since 2005. I hadn't actually realised how much streetcar usage had increased until I looked at the numbers.

Look at the massive population growth downtown especially west along King/Lakeshore. More people, especially more people without cars, means more transit usage. Wait until the Canary District opens basically all at one time.

 

[nfitz]

Still, I'd always assumed that replacing the 196 15-metre cars and 52 23-metre cars with 204 30-metre cars was a massive increase in capacity (though a little loss of flexibility at peak). However (assuming the same capacity per length) it only represents a 48% increase in capacity. However since this decision was made in 2006, we've already seen a 53% passenger increase.

So we are already to the point that even when fully implemented, the new streetcars are going to be fuller than the old ones were when this thread started.

The additional 60 cars turns the 48% capacity increase to a 91% capacity increase from the old streetcars. Instead retaining 30 ALRVs would be a 65% capacity increase. If it's really 40 ALRVs then a 70% capacity increase.

Perhaps the only thing that saves us from needing yet another increase after the 60, is if the DRL opens, and reduces demand for 504 somewhat. Still it's easy to see that we'll need 264+DRL by the 2030s.

Yes this is very true. I should ignore his thread for 6 months and then check in again.

8 of 9 in service right now; all except 4406. I'm surprised that only 4401 and 4406 would be elsewhere.

 

[AlbertHWagstaff]

Still, I'd always assumed that replacing the 196 15-metre cars and 52 23-metre cars with 204 30-metre cars was a massive increase in capacity (though a little loss of flexibility at peak). However (assuming the same capacity per length) it only represents a 48% increase in capacity. However since this decision was made in 2006, we've already seen a 53% passenger increase.

So we are already to the point that even when fully implemented, the new streetcars are going to be fuller than the old ones were when this thread started.

The additional 60 cars turns the 48% capacity increase to a 91% capacity increase from the old streetcars. Instead retaining 30 ALRVs would be a 65% capacity increase. If it's really 40 ALRVs then a 70% capacity increase.

Perhaps the only thing that saves us from needing yet another increase after the 60, is if the DRL opens, and reduces demand for 504 somewhat. Still it's easy to see that we'll need 264+DRL by the 2030s.

8 of 9 in service right now; all except 4406. I'm surprised that only 4401 and 4406 would be elsewhere.

With four ALRVs out of service this morning, they need everything they can to be out on the road!

 

[georgevicbell]

264 is not enough cars that will be needed even before the Portlands every gets built. We need another carhouse. It maybe in 2005 where I was calling for close to 600 cars city wide to be used on lines that were to become part of Transit City as well going out into the 905. If we every get off our asses and start building more lines and extending them, we will by pass 600 very easy. We got just over 400 now in the works.

I would put a toll of $2.50 per trip to use the parking lot highways and it will reduce some traffic, but not much since some drivers will use bypass road with longer travel time. It could be up and running by 2018 very easy.

The question then is where could a new carhouse go? Is there any opportunity for expansion at the new one or are we looking at a new site? What were the backup sites for the current one?

 

[innsertnamehere]

The Leslie barns from my understanding means that there will be a ton of extra storage around the system, even if we do the extra 60 cars.