Transit City Plan

[BurlOak]

Minimum of 8-month shut-down. After this conversion was approved, the TTC performed additional study and found it was going to be closer to a 2 year shut-down.

I thought it was "the TTC performed an additional biased study to ensure that LRT would be more favourable and found it was going to be closer to a 2 year shut-down".

 

[rbt]

I thought it was "the TTC performed an additional biased study to ensure that LRT would be more favourable and found it was going to be closer to a 2 year shut-down".

I suppose it depends on who you ask.

If you carefully read the original Soberman report the SRT numbers were "over ..." and the LRT numbers were "up to ...". So, SRT was presented as a best-case scenario and the LRT were presented as a worst-case scenario. These numbers did not consider an extension of any type. It's worth noting that Soberman was one of the creators of the SRT in the first place and seemed to be publicly pushing for the subway option; not SRT or LRT.

In the additional study conducted by TTC staff (not Soberman) found that both options were essentially the same. SRT was indeed larger than the presented figure and LRT was indeed lower than the presented figure; just as the wording of the Soberman report indicated may be the case.

An extension pushed favour to LRT.

I can't speak to the methodology used in the additional studies because I don't have a copy of them; but the original Soberman report did not use unbiased wording and presentation although it was technically correct.

 

[adeel]

Eglinton isn't really the problem, Sheppard is. It seems that for the past 2 (almost 3) decades politicians have had this fetish with Sheppard. First it was Lastman and his subway idea. Then it was Miller & Co. with the Sheppard East LRT. Neither of which are really warranted, based on the actual and projected volumes. More importantly, they were never, and still aren't, transit priorities for this city. Why Sheppard East was pushed to the top of the heap for Transit City I'll never know, but I suspect it had very little to do with the whopping 3,100 pphpd it was projected to carry.

If Transit City was a DRL, a replacement of the SRT with a Bloor-Danforth Subway extension, an Eglinton Crosstown (be it subway, ICTS, or LRT), and BRT along Sheppard East and Finch East & West, it would have been a perfectly sensible plan that would have gotten a lot of support. It would have had something for everyone. Alas, the "LRTs for all" approach irked many, and it was countered fiercely by the Ford's "subways for all" approach. And now we have a complete cluster**k at City Hall, and in public opinion.

The Stintz Plan, and then One City, were perfectly reasonable compromises. But by the time they came to light, the forum had already been so poisoned by the two extreme positions that a rational compromise wasn't what anybody (on either side) wanted to hear.

/rant off

One thing I don't get is the provinces inflexibility on the SRT portion of eglinton LRT...when onecity was proposed with BD extension and Eglinton LRT to Kennedy, it was rejected out of hand. I can understand not wanting to redo the entire line, but it seems that they won't be getting to that portion of eglinton for years to come, so why not at least TALK about it. I really feel like extending BD subway would get whoever does it Scarb votes b/c it does get the elusive subway into Scarborough.

Nothing wrong with a higher order of transit on Eglinton. It was just wrong of Mayor Miller and Adam Giambrone making it the centrepiece of Transit City while totally ignoring a DRL.

They didn't totally ignore it. The current DRL study started when Miller was mayor. Giambrone talked more than once about having to start building the DRL around 2018 or so after Transit City was finished. I doubt very much it will start as soon as Giambrone had advocated for.

This is more of what I want to know about. Miller and Giambrone were pretty transit interested and savvy, and yet neither pushed for DRL ahead of eglinton? and then they pushed Sheppard LRT to the front of the pack for completion (resulting in cancel fees now I think since work hasn't been done - cant recall exactly) rather than finch even.

Danforth subway extension to STC will cost about $500 million more than the amount currently allocated to the SRT conversion.

Extending the subway further, to Sheppard / McCowan, will cost additional $700 million.

So, if we want the Danforth subway extension and do not want it to compete for future funding with DRL, the only practical option is to re-purpose all funds from Sheppard East LRT to Danforth subway. The subway will be built, but the Sheppard corridor will not get any improvements in this round; not even BRT.

And I suspect that such option would get a majority vote in a popular ballot in Scarborough; although the benefits would be spread un-evenly and some areas would lose out compared to the current plan.

I'm ok with that.

No, extending the subway to Sheppard & McCowan is significantly more expensive. There is no option to transfer money from Sheppard LRT to this project; politics blocks it.

Conservative majority: Sheppard LRT is canned and funds go against the deficit/debt. No funded replacement is proposed; so there is no money to transfer. DRL might be funded (depends on whether the banks and developers will call in favours to get it). Most transportation money will go to a few highway improvements and GO extensions into new territory.

NDP majority: LRTs continue on track as proposed and DRL will almost certainly be funded. Most new transit money will go into operating subsidies rather than capital (they ran on that in the last election at least).

Liberal majority: Depends largely on the new leader but continuing what has been started is most likely. They really need results at this point and changing plans again isn't going to help them politically at all. Most of their current scandals are related to not committing to the project and being wishy-washy with them. Any new funds would be to a DRL + Yonge Extension combination and Mississauga; not Danforth.



Actual Options somewhat on the table:
1) Danforth extension: Costs $500M extra and stops at SCC. Bus service would be run between Sheppard and SCC. Sheppard LRT, if built, would not intersect the Danforth extension. I expect Toronto will need to fund the $500M gap from general revenues (property tax, land transfer tax, etc.) and fund the EA and upfront.

2) SRT converstion/upgrade option as LRT (ALRT costs more) would stop at Sheppard and would intersect with the Sheppard LRT.


It's pretty much a guarantee that all options involve an SRT closure at this point simply because of the age of the SRT components.

All funds for Sheppard are $950 million. I thought the quoted number for added cost of the subway option vs the SRT extension + refurb was $600 million, which would leave $350 million left over for Sheppard. That would be enough to build a pretty decent BRT. Or are my numbers with respect to the subway extension off?

And based on that, you could keep the $300 million of Fed dollars on Sheppard for the BRT, so that it isn't being shifted elsewhere. The Provincial dollars I suspect are much more easily moved.

And even if the extension ends up being more than $650 million more, couldn't the city just chip in the rest?

 

[nhui06]

All funds for Sheppard are $950 million. I thought the quoted number for added cost of the subway option vs the SRT extension + refurb was $600 million, which would leave $350 million left over for Sheppard. That would be enough to build a pretty decent BRT. Or are my numbers with respect to the subway extension off?

And based on that, you could keep the $300 million of Fed dollars on Sheppard for the BRT, so that it isn't being shifted elsewhere. The Provincial dollars I suspect are much more easily moved.

And even if the extension ends up being more than $650 million more, couldn't the city just chip in the rest?

I am perfectly fine with a BRT on Sheppard. I have lived there for over 20 years, and while there have been some condo development near Kennedy and Sheppard (and some starting on Pharmacy), there really is no need for a subway or a LRT on our street. Sure it gets a little bit busy during rush hour (but which part of Toronto doesn't?) They should get those VIVA long buses though for the BRT. Divert the savings towards extending the Subway up to STC (or preferably Sheppard) and contribute to the DRL.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Metrolinx agreement with city could change future of light rail lines

This article is from insidetoronto.com at this link:

City Centre Mirror by David Nickle

The long-awaited master agreement between the City of Toronto and Metrolinx for the construction of new light rail lines could be derailed when it comes to Toronto Council next week, over provisions that could leave the door open to reductions in the number of stations and the configuration of the lines.

The agreement is the final nuts-and-bolts protocol for the way the provincial transit infrastructure agency will interact with both the Toronto Transit Commission and the City of Toronto.

The arrangement sets out funding agreements and traffic management controls, and also sets out key governance protocols.

The protocols leave control of much of the work – including land use planning – ultimately in the hands of the Metrolinx board. While Metrolinx will endeavour to obtain all the necessary permits and approvals and undergo a process similar to the city’s site plan approval, the report on the agreement states “in the event of a dispute Metrolinx has the final approval authority over its assets.â€

And ultimately, if Metrolinx decides on a scope change for the $8.4 billion in new transit lines, Metrolinx has the authority to do so unilaterally.

Parkdale-High Park Councillor Gord Perks said that could be a deal-breaker for a significant number of councillors.

“The Master Agreement contains a provision that allows Metrolinx to remove stations and stops at their sole discretion,†said Perks. “That is a potential disaster for Torontonians – it could well turn the line into a suburban commuter line that would provide no service along Eglinton. We would have to run both the light rail line and have buses going every 30 seconds on Eglinton as well.â€

Perks said Thursday that councillors were debating among themselves how to deal with the agreement, which also ensures the Toronto Transit Commission would be the one to operate the Metrolinx-owned lines.

“At this point, my inclination is to ask the City Manager not to sign this agreement and go back to the province and have this very dangerous provision removed,†said Perks.

The changes identified in the report include the number of stations, but also how much or little of the lines are eventually above ground or underground, and the distance between stations.

The agreement covers several projects: the Eglinton-Scarborough Ccrosstown LRT, the Scarborough RT, the Finch West LRT and the Sheppard LRT.

 

[BurlOak]

Danforth subway extension to STC will cost about $500 million more than the amount currently allocated to the SRT conversion.

Extending the subway further, to Sheppard / McCowan, will cost additional $700 million.

So, if we want the Danforth subway extension and do not want it to compete for future funding with DRL, the only practical option is to re-purpose all funds from Sheppard East LRT to Danforth subway. The subway will be built, but the Sheppard corridor will not get any improvements in this round; not even BRT.

And I suspect that such option would get a majority vote in a popular ballot in Scarborough; although the benefits would be spread un-evenly and some areas would lose out compared to the current plan.

I think if you show Scarborough an elevated Eglinton running through with the SRT - they would also support that. You would still have over $0.5B left over to do BRT on Sheppard or as a start for the DRL. If you show them this Eglinton/SRT connecting Malvern directly with the DRL, Yonge and Spadina line, they will definately support it.

 

[drum118]

I am perfectly fine with a BRT on Sheppard. I have lived there for over 20 years, and while there have been some condo development near Kennedy and Sheppard (and some starting on Pharmacy), there really is no need for a subway or a LRT on our street. Sure it gets a little bit busy during rush hour (but which part of Toronto doesn't?) They should get those VIVA long buses though for the BRT. Divert the savings towards extending the Subway up to STC (or preferably Sheppard) and contribute to the DRL.

There is a business case that support BRT east of Kennedy Rd as far as Port Union GO Station.

There is a Business case that support LRT west of Kennedy Rd to Weston Rd.

There is no business case to support subway on Sheppard to Kennedy Rd let alone to STC.

At present Time, only about 25,000 people use the Sheppard Subway 5 days a week with less than haft on the weekend.

Do the math and figure how many people are carry per km for the subway and then to Kennedy Rd. Then figure the cost per km to operate the line and what it cost riders per km to ride a subway.

If you break the line down as cost per hour as: $115 per bus, $185 LRT and $325 Subway, you will see LRT/Streetcars cost less per km per rider than the other 2. Data by the USA APT will show this.

We need subways, but they have to be where they will do the most good as well costing less to operate them. I stand by my opposition for the Sheppard line as it will be a drain on everyone and only benefit a few as there is no business case to support it in the first place.

The DRL needs to happen from Queen to Steeles first with 3 option routes to the city core that not south of King St.

The BD should be extended to STC regardless of the extra cost as there are more riders will to ride the subway than the current SRT which cannot carry them now. It also save rides 5-10 minutes that is lost doing the transfer at Kennedy Station today.

One thing people need to be careful is on the number of riders trips carry per year by TTC or any transit system being used. Those numbers sound great, but how many people are really using transit on a daily? I can skew that number real bad to the point I may have done 10 trips during the day and may used 15 transfer on a day pass. I have done 48 trips on a weekly pass with double or triple the transfers to do those trips.

Until you have true ridership numbers using a smart card, then you will know how many people use the system daily, numbers of transfer they do as well how/where they travel. Then and only then can you say x business case is wrong.

I use Sheppard monthly and I see the various types of ridership, as well doing ridership count to say the subway fails the mean test case for having one.

Its time for the city to invest more in transit, as there is no more road capacity to carry the future 1-2 million residents in the coming years.

 

[ssiguy2]

I've never thought a Sheppard ext to STC would be money well spent. If they are going to extend Sheppard they should do the Yonge to Spadina ext first. It would faster, easier, and much cheaper to build and the line will certainly become more popular when the Spadina ext opens.

If Metrolinx control means fewer stations then all the better. All of the TC lines have far too many stations especially Finch and Sheppard which is not going to be near as fast or flexible as a semi-express bus like the BLine. Really, a rapid transit lines that stop every 2 to 3 blocks in suburbia??? The lines should AVERAGE about 1 stop per km and no more.

 

[GenerationW]

This is more of what I want to know about. Miller and Giambrone were pretty transit interested and savvy, and yet neither pushed for DRL ahead of eglinton? and then they pushed Sheppard LRT to the front of the pack for completion (resulting in cancel fees now I think since work hasn't been done - cant recall exactly) rather than finch even.

The DRL was basically a non-issue for Council until recently. In 2007-08, Transit City and other regional projects started to get funding by Queen's Park, while others vied for attention. York Region decided to get on board by pushing for a Yonge extension, which quickly progressed to an E.A. and community meetings co-sponsored by York and the TTC. It seemed throughout 2008 that Yonge might actually get the green light, so Toronto Council countered by ordering up a DRL study and requesting that no Yonge extension occur unless a DRL was built first, or at least at the same time. However, the financial crisis and subsequent recession changed things. Budget tightening forced Transit City's funding to be reduced from $12 to $8 billion in 2009, and soon after it became apparent that Yonge would not happen for many years. So the DRL moved to the background after its brief time in the spotlight. (Going by memory so my timelines may be off.)

Regarding Sheppard, Miller lobbied hard for a Sheppard subway extension in his first term, but was unable to overcome the combined support of Queen's Park, Ottawa, and York Region for Spadina. So with transit on Sheppard ingrained in the public consciousness, I imagine they felt it pretty much had to be part of Transit City. Eglinton's appeal was even stronger due to Harris halting construction of the Eglinton subway in the 90's.

As for why the DRL, the project most people agree is Toronto's #1 local transit priority, was not part of Transit City debut in 2007, one can only speculate. Either those studies apparently used by Miller and Giambrone to develop TC concluded the DRL was low priority/no priority, or they made the political choice to leave out the DRL altogether from the next 10-15 years of transit expansion. So the studies were either substandard, or ignored. Or non-existent. In any case, the DRL was not on their radar during a period when the City was given billions to spend freely on transit, a situation which may never happen again.

Can't argue that Miller and Giambrone were not transit interested, but Transit City, or what remains of it, is still being hotly debated 5 1/2 years after it was unveiled, and we still aren't completely sure what will end up being built other than Eglinton, or at least the underground portion of Eglinton. And it's more than just Ford objecting to TC and yelling like a maniac for subways. All of Council is pushing and pulling in different directions. Not exactly evidence of a positive legacy.

 

[Rainforest]

I think if you show Scarborough an elevated Eglinton running through with the SRT - they would also support that. You would still have over $0.5B left over to do BRT on Sheppard or as a start for the DRL. If you show them this Eglinton/SRT connecting Malvern directly with the DRL, Yonge and Spadina line, they will definately support it.

Not sure about this calculation; you would need to upgrade 9 km of Eglinton East from surface to elevated for $500 - $600 million and that might not be doable.

 

[Rainforest]

If you break the line down as cost per hour as: $115 per bus, $185 LRT and $325 Subway, you will see LRT/Streetcars cost less per km per rider than the other 2. Data by the USA APT will show this.

Looks like the cost effectiveness depends on the ridership volume.

From your numbers, LRT / Streetcar is more expensive the bus if it carries less than 1.5 times the capacity limit of the bus. It if it carries more than that, it becomes cheaper per rider.

Likewise, subway is more expensive than LRT if it carries less than 2 times the LRT's capacity limit, and more expensive than the bus if it carries less than 3 times the capacity limit of the bus. If a subway carries more than 2x of LRT limit and more than 3x of bus limit, it becomes the cheapest per rider.

 

[Rainforest]

All funds for Sheppard are $950 million. I thought the quoted number for added cost of the subway option vs the SRT extension + refurb was $600 million, which would leave $350 million left over for Sheppard. That would be enough to build a pretty decent BRT. Or are my numbers with respect to the subway extension off?

And based on that, you could keep the $300 million of Fed dollars on Sheppard for the BRT, so that it isn't being shifted elsewhere. The Provincial dollars I suspect are much more easily moved.

And even if the extension ends up being more than $650 million more, couldn't the city just chip in the rest?

My understanding is that just the subway to STC will cost about $500 million more than the whole amount allocated for the SRT project. Getting the subway from STC to Sheppard / McCowan will cost additional $700 million.

 

[Rainforest]

No, extending the subway to Sheppard & McCowan is significantly more expensive. There is no option to transfer money from Sheppard LRT to this project; politics blocks it.

Conservative majority: Sheppard LRT is canned and funds go against the deficit/debt. No funded replacement is proposed; so there is no money to transfer. DRL might be funded (depends on whether the banks and developers will call in favours to get it). Most transportation money will go to a few highway improvements and GO extensions into new territory.

NDP majority: LRTs continue on track as proposed and DRL will almost certainly be funded. Most new transit money will go into operating subsidies rather than capital (they ran on that in the last election at least).

Liberal majority: Depends largely on the new leader but continuing what has been started is most likely. They really need results at this point and changing plans again isn't going to help them politically at all. Most of their current scandals are related to not committing to the project and being wishy-washy with them. Any new funds would be to a DRL + Yonge Extension combination and Mississauga; not Danforth.

Actual Options somewhat on the table:
1) Danforth extension: Costs $500M extra and stops at SCC. Bus service would be run between Sheppard and SCC. Sheppard LRT, if built, would not intersect the Danforth extension. I expect Toronto will need to fund the $500M gap from general revenues (property tax, land transfer tax, etc.) and fund the EA and upfront.

2) SRT converstion/upgrade option as LRT (ALRT costs more) would stop at Sheppard and would intersect with the Sheppard LRT.

I agree only with your predictions for the "Conservative majority" case.

The position of NDP or Liberals is not so obvious. NDP generally supports light rail, but they might make an exception for Scarborough if supporting a subway there gives them more votes for the same investment. Likewise, a new Liberal leader might want to differ from McGuinty in some respects. A partial revision of Transit City might be one of his / her options if it brings in more votes.

The next Mayor of Toronto will have some say in the matter, too. Mr. Ford had a lot of influence after he was elected. He lost his clout after he mismanaged the transit file to the point where his own Council rebelled against him, but the next mayor is not likely to repeat the same mistake.

At the same time, I see 3 other significant factors that work against Danforth subway extension:

1. Metrolinx wants to combine SRT with Eglinton using ART technology. The Danforth subway extension will not only preclude ART between Kennedy and STC, but will greatly weaken the case for switching Eglinton from LRT to ART. Therefore, Metrolinx is likely to work against Danforth subway extension behind the curtains.

2. Both Metrolinx and the MTO might be concerned about the possible cost overruns if they commit to subway in this corridor. For the SLRT, the detailed design exists already and hence any cost surprises are less likely. But for the subway, only ballpark estimates are available. If they publicly commit to subway, start detailed design, and then it turns out to cost more than expected they will be in hot water again.

3. Various politicians and groups push for two subway extensions into Scarborough at the same time, actually reducing the chance that even one of those extensions can get built. The City clearly cannot afford both extensions in the foreseeable future. Even if the majority of Scarborough residents prefers the money allocated for Scarborough to be spend on a subway, not choosing a clear priority out of the two extensions tempts those in charge to keep it simple and stick to the LRT solution.

 

[gweed123]

My understanding is that just the subway to STC will cost about $500 million more than the whole amount allocated for the SRT project. Getting the subway from STC to Sheppard / McCowan will cost additional $700 million.

Which means, assuming that the $300 million in federal funding needs to remain on Sheppard, that the City would need to pitch in an additional $50 million to make the B-D extension to Sheppard & McCowan work ($950 - $300 = $650). I'd say that's pretty doable. In a lot of these projects, $50 million is a rounding error.

 

[W. K. Lis]

In this article, from www.capitalnewyork.com at this link, it mentioned Mayor Michael Bloomberg from New York City (too bad its not a "world class city") and the following:

Bloomberg today said drivers' claim to the city's streets is unfounded.

"The streets are there to transport people," he said. "They're not there necessarily for cars, they're to transport people, and there's lots of different ways of transporting people," he said. "In fact, one of the original ways was walking."

He also criticized the state for failing to adequately support the city's mass transit system, on which the both the city's and state's economy relies.

"The economics of this city are very dependent on the transportation system," he said.

"We built a brand new subway that will be open in another year," he added, referring to the 7 train, which the city is funding using a form of tax-increment financing. "Our state refused to give us any money to build a new subway line, and we said, 'Well, screw you.'"