You know, Gweed123, I really like where you're coming from after looking over your Move Toronto plan. It does make sense.
Thank you, haha. I was hoping that by showing it on a map, it would be clearer than just typing it out. Seeing the lines and how they connect vs just visualizing them, sometimes something can get lost in translation.
I'm curious, however, on why you propose to change all of the proposed LRT routes to BRT? Is it to save money by cutting capacity? Is it because you think it's a more efficient model? Why do you feel (an assumption, of course) that a LRT network and a BRT cannot function in unison.
It's a combination of all 3. I feel that for a lot of these suburban routes, BRT is less expensive to build, can be built in stages as opposed to 1 shot (further reducing the capital expenditures), and is more tailored to the capacity that is actually needed. A lot of the proposed suburban LRT lines will be built with a pretty substantial excess of capacity, something that won't be needed for a long time. And that's even assuming the setup of the network stays the same.
One of the things that I tried to really do with MoTo is reduce peak hour riderships by creating multiple perpendicular transfer points along each of the lines. The idea is that 1 seat that turns over 3 times is more effective than 3 seats that turn over once. When you look at the Sheppard East LRT, the way it was designed is basically as a long-haul feeder line for the Sheppard Subway. Someone who got on at Morningside was likely to stay on all the way to Sheppard. But with the Sheppard East BRT proposal, they're just as likely to get off at McCowan and transfer onto the B-D subway. This means that person's seat is now open for someone to get on at Kennedy. Increase in net capacity by increasing turnover.
And I do still do favour having an LRT along Eglinton, and while not shown (because it's long term) the WWLRT, with a branch of it going down the Queensway as well, and the Hurontario LRT. I think those are places where the design of the neighbourhood, coupled with the predicted ridership, truly warrants LRT.
The thing about North York, Etobicoke and Scarborough.. Is they're losing a lot of their potential growth to other areas in the GTA. The real reason why Transit City came before the Downtown Relief line is because North York, Etobicoke and Scarborough is where most of the city's residents live. Not only that, but they are suffering because they're losing potential office space to areas in the 905 and outside of the city. And that's not all, these areas are stuck in a transitional space between suburb and city, and they do not have the infrastructure to support attracting business in a significant way.
A network of LRT would offer a level of connectivity that would be able to encourage increased development - especially in Scarborough. A BRT would be unable to create the perceptions and realities of connectivity that drives businesses and developers to identify an area as desirable. While a subway would cost too much to build and operate.
The true fact is that Downtown Toronto, the Former City of Toronto, has already seen a transformation due to the effects of Light Rail over multiple generations. While extra transit capacity is still desperately needed Downtown, the market has responded by condo construction, which I believe is partly fuelled by a chronically underbuilt transportation network.
This fact has not been so kind to North York, Etobicoke, and Scarborough. The truth is that the significance of their future actually depends on a strong transit network, one that BRT can be a part of, but cannot do alone.
I do agree that there is a problem when it comes to attracting growth to the outer 416, but I don't think that LRT is necessarily the solution. I think the solution is any type of rapid transit that gets people in and out quickly. This can be BRT, LRT, Subway, or GO REX. Like I've said before, people value speed and reliability most. If the service is quick and reliable, they'll take it.
What our network really needs though is layers. GO REX for high capacity, medium frequency, long haul trips. Subways for high capacity, high frequency, medium haul trips. LRTs for medium capacity, high frequency, medium-short haul trips. BRTs for medium-low capacity, high frequency, short haul trips to the nearest GO REX or subway station.
The BRT lines as I'm proposing them are not meant as long haul commuting options, but rather has high frequency, medium-low capacity feeder routes to quickly and reliably bring people to the closest higher order transit station (by that I mean GO REX or Subway). They may seem like really long lines on the map, but the reality is, for most trips, they're really a string of shorter lines leading from local areas to the nearest station.
And I think that BRT will attract development. Why? Because that development is already happening to a certain extent in the outer 416, it's just happening in really random places. By putting in these BRT lines, it will give focus points for the development.
One of the advantages to doing BRT in the suburbs as well is the ability to create multiple bus routes that use BRT lanes for a portion of their trip. This allows the bus routes to be more accurately tailored to trip patterns, because it's so much more flexible. With LRT, the corridor and the routes are basically the same thing. But with BRT, the corridor and the routes can be completely independent from one another.
For example: there can be a bus route that runs along Warden north that hits the employment cluster in Markham, several density nodes along Warden, and then use the Sheppard East BRT lanes to either feed into Don Mills Station or Sheppard-McCowan Station. If there was an LRT on Sheppard, there would be an added transfer in there, but with BRT, that bus route can share the BRT lanes and travel just as quickly as the actual Sheppard BRT route for that portion of the trip, or even run express once it hits Sheppard. The net difference in bus + LRT vs bus + bus in BRT lanes is potentially hugely in favour of the latter, if the route is designed properly.