Transit City Plan

[nfitz]

For example, if you're halfway between Eglinton and Lawrence, are you going to take the bus up to Lawrence, or the bus down to Eglinton? Before, the split was probably close to 50/50 (depending on time of day, destination, etc). That split is going to drastically change if there's an underground LRT along Eglinton. That will in turn affect ridership on adjacent parallel routes.

If that were true, we should see a drop in ridership on York Mills and Finch East since the Sheppard subway has opened. I don't think this has happened.

 

[gweed123]

If that were true, we should see a drop in ridership on York Mills and Finch East since the Sheppard subway has opened. I don't think this has happened.

I hasn't happened because the Sheppard Stubway is just that: a stub. It doesn't cover nearly enough area to be an effective 'suction force' from adjacent routes.

 

[kEiThZ]

If that were true, we should see a drop in ridership on York Mills and Finch East since the Sheppard subway has opened. I don't think this has happened.

Except that Sheppard doesn't go far enough to really make that much of a difference. If I get on the bus at Morningside Heights (and I've done this trip often), what benefit is there to me to transfer at Don Mills to transfer again at Don Mills station? Look at Google transit and work it out. You don't save any time by doing that. The further east the subway goes the more diverting to it makes sense.

As rough math, taking into account the 5.5 km length of Sheppard and the difference in speeds (17kph for bus vs. 30kph for subway), that's a 9 minute difference to cover the same distance. However, you are tacking on two extra transfers, Finch to Don Mills and Don Mills bus to Sheppard subway. I'd say that's pretty much a wash for saving time and you have the added discomfort of transferring twice before you get to Yonge.

Now with the LRT, there's a few things to take into account. I don't think it's quite as simple as gweed says. The LRT won't be as fast as the subway. But it will be faster than the bus. Let's use my example above. But we'll start at Neilson and Finch for simplicity's sake:

1) 2.2 km on the Neilson bus down to Sheppard. 10.8 km on Sheppard LRT to Don Mills. 5.5 km on Sheppard subway.
2) 16 km on Finch bus to Yonge. 2 km down to Sheppard.

Using 17kph for the bus and 30kph for the subway and 23kph for the LRT:
1) 47 mins with two transfers. (and another transfer if you are actually getting on Yonge line).
2) 60 mins with one transfer.

Dependings on how long those transfers take that 13 mins in savings will really be significantly less than advertised (with the added inconvenience of extra transfers). Not worthwile unless you are bound for a destination on Sheppard itself.

But here's where the service issue comes in. Once the LRT is extended and crosses every major avenue, it becomes advantageous to get to the LRT if you are due for a destination on Sheppard. So from Neilson and Finch to get to Kennedy and Sheppard, whereas today I would go west on Finch and south on Kennedy, it might now make more sense to go south on Neilson and west on Sheppard, since I am incurring the same amount of transfers. When this happens, what's there to stop the TTC from cutting back service of Finch? Which might actually be a valid tactic to drive ridership on the SELRT.

This is why I'm kind of with Scarberian on this one. The most bang for the buck comes from vastly improving bus service. Curbside bus lanes, signal priority, artics or double deckers, maybe even some changes on stop placements. We could do that on every major avenue in Toronto. How much difference would that make? I'd give up a Sheppard subway extension for that.

 

[Calrissian]

Not sure if this was caught and posted yet, but looks like TTC has removed any referrence to Transit City on their website, except when you do a search for it and then it displays a notice: "Mayor Ford has requested that the TTC develop a new transit plan consistent with his platform. Work on a new plan is underway. For more info on the current plan see the Metrolinx website at http://www.metrolinx.com"

https://www3.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Projects_and_initiatives/Transit_city/index.jsp

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

transit city is dead. sheppard subway extension is the new priority. eglinton takes second place to sheppard.

 

[Paleo]

I don't think you really get the difference between density and concentration. "Density" means little if you're calculating it using neighbourhoods filled solid with compact housing that stretches beyond walking distance of whatever point you're focusing on. How many acres of parking lots and fields make up the density figures you're using for a spot like STC? Does it include employment? Does it include shoppers? The mall is one of the biggest transit trip generators in the entire city, regardless what drum118 says. After large office clusters, malls are the most important things to serve with transit. One mall at a transit station is worth a truly astounding number of residents, an entire college or university, or a massive employment area (well, the mall is an employment area). STC may not yet be dense, but is clearly concentrated.

Where do people get this idea that malls are huge transit trip generators? The number of trips to the mall pales in comparison to work and (a distant second) school. That's probably why basing transit expansion around getting to malls is doomed for failure.

How many workers do you think are at a large mall at any given time? 500? 1000 tops? How many people are milling around in malls during work or school hours? How hard do you think a few thousand people are going to be stressing a massive subway when people are going to the mall in evenings or weekend? Oh yeah, really needed there.

 

[kEiThZ]

The problem here is that people look at STC as a mall. The mall is only one component of it. There's a lot of employment, government services and residences AROUND that mall. That's what you're aiming to serve. The mall itself is rather secondary to the goal.

 

[SimonP]

There are about 13,000 jobs and 12,000 residents in the area around STC. That's a good number, but one that could be served by a couple LRT lines, or an extension of the Bloor-Danforth line.

In other news, Karen Stintz is making some positive statements in the Globe:

Along the way, half the Transit City plan morphed into the regional plan. It became unclear for people what exactly was being invested in. We’re taking this time, six weeks, to see if that regional transportation plan can be adjusted to meet [Mr. Ford’s] campaign commitments.

In fact, the Eglinton line is already an underground LRT, so there’s no need to review that piece of it.

 

[Asterix]

In other news, Karen Stintz is making some positive statements in the Globe:

"Along the way, half the Transit City plan morphed into the regional plan. It became unclear for people what exactly was being invested in. We’re taking this time, six weeks, to see if that regional transportation plan can be adjusted to meet [Mr. Ford’s] campaign commitments.

In fact, the Eglinton line is already an underground LRT, so there’s no need to review that piece of it."

And if the regional transportation plan can't be adjusted to meet [Mr. Ford's] campaign commitments (especially since a large chunk of the available money is going to the underground portion of Eglinton)?

That interview gives a whole lot of non-answers to the real questions folks here have. What she seems to be saying is that due to campaign promises made without a thorough understanding of transit and the city and an apparent desire not to be flexible, we are going to be spending years back in the planning and discussing stages without actually building much in the way of new transit services.

 

[rbt]

And if the regional transportation plan can't be adjusted to meet [Mr. Ford's] campaign commitments (especially since a large chunk of the available money is going to the underground portion of Eglinton)?

That interview gives a whole lot of non-answers to the real questions folks here have. What she seems to be saying is that due to campaign promises made without a thorough understanding of transit and the city and an apparent desire not to be flexible, we are going to be spending years back in the planning and discussing stages without actually building much in the way of new transit services.

It doesn't really matter. Hudak is the wild card. If elected with an majority government on a mandate to tackle the deficit, he's not going to leave anything which isn't already tendered on the table.

Eliminating the gas tax and a few other transfers will cause TTC fares to go up 30% (thus ridership pressures aren't an issue anymore) and that will be that.

Pressures on the SRT will either make that Hudaks only funded project immediately before the 2015 election OR it will be converted to a busway on the cities dime because Ford says it's all we can afford.

 

[gweed123]

It doesn't really matter. Hudak is the wild card. If elected with an majority government on a mandate to tackle the deficit, he's not going to leave anything which isn't already tendered on the table.

Eliminating the gas tax and a few other transfers will cause TTC fares to go up 30% (thus ridership pressures aren't an issue anymore) and that will be that.

Pressures on the SRT will either make that Hudaks only funded project immediately before the 2015 election OR it will be converted to a busway on the cities dime because Ford says it's all we can afford.

By next year, there will be even more contracts tendered for TC projects (assuming a decent percentage of them stay on the table after the TTC is done revamping it to suit Ford), making it even more difficult for the province to come in and cancel it. I personally hope the contrators set outrageous cancellation fees for a lot of these projects, just to deter a government from coming in and wiping the slate clean. If I were McGuinty and Metrolinx, I'd be pushing as hard as I could to get these projects near or past the point of no-return (or at least no-return without a significant penalty). I really hate to use this analogy, but it's kinda like an abortion. How far along does it have to be before people start screaming murder? Everyone has their own opinion on what that point is, but there has to be a point where the majority of the public will believe that it's not worth cancelling the projects, and that it should just be better to see them through.

 

[The Mad Navigator]

By next year, there will be even more contracts tendered for TC projects (assuming a decent percentage of them stay on the table after the TTC is done revamping it to suit Ford), making it even more difficult for the province to come in and cancel it. I personally hope the contrators set outrageous cancellation fees for a lot of these projects, just to deter a government from coming in and wiping the slate clean. If I were McGuinty and Metrolinx, I'd be pushing as hard as I could to get these projects near or past the point of no-return (or at least no-return without a significant penalty). I really hate to use this analogy, but it's kinda like an abortion. How far along does it have to be before people start screaming murder? Everyone has their own opinion on what that point is, but there has to be a point where the majority of the public will believe that it's not worth cancelling the projects, and that it should just be better to see them through.

Absolutely agree here.

Though, I feel McGuinty's waning support of transit infrastructure expansion has been evident lately, possibly to appease rural voters? At least that's the impression I got from his meeting with Ford.....

 

[gweed123]

Absolutely agree here.

Though, I feel McGuinty's waning support of transit infrastructure expansion has been evident lately, possibly to appease rural voters? At least that's the impression I got from his meeting with Ford.....

Not so much rural as it is suburban. The rural vote in Ontario doesn't really count for much. I think it's mainly trying to appeal to the "I think the HST is the devil even though I won't complain about the rebate cheque I just got" crowd. He needs to make himself look like less of a moneygrabber in their eyes. By being less of a cheerleader for transit, he can quietly shed that "tax and spend!" image that has been built of him by suburban voters.

 

[rbt]

By next year, there will be even more contracts tendered for TC projects (assuming a decent percentage of them stay on the table after the TTC is done revamping it to suit Ford)

It depends on what revamping includes. It wouldn't be hard to trigger the requirement for an EA amendment (6 months) or a years worth of engineering (Sheppard subway to Vic Park).

 

[gweed123]

It depends on what revamping includes. It wouldn't be hard to trigger the requirement for an EA amendment (6 months) or a years worth of engineering (Sheppard subway to Vic Park).

But running BRT in-median from Agincourt to Morningside instead of running LRT in-median likely would not require a new EA. Future upgrade to LRT would require minimal costs if demand required it, and the subway extension to VP would not be a prerequisite to the BRT opening. If all you're doing is not laying down the tracks and laying down asphalt instead, I would imagine this would not be significant enough of a change to trigger a new EA.