On the contrary, I'd say the Liberals would be open to cutting RO station because they know they'll never win Thornhill anyway.
First of all, I assure you the Liberal campaign strategists don't look at this the way you do.
The riding was Liberal for a long time (until 2007), and especially on the east side of Yonge Street.
Also, the PC incumbent isn't running again.
Also, the Yonge extension was a McGuinty project before Ford took over (and then changed the alignment to go under Royal Orchard for his developer cronies, if you listen to the local rhetoric).
If you think that the Liberals can't win, or more to the point, that they would be so suicidal that they would cut themselves off at the knees and not even try in an inner-905 riding that is next door to the party leader's riding - the party leader who used to be Transportaiton Minister - with these circumstances...well, I don't know why they'd even run in an election at all. Might as well just agree to grant Ford another four years.
(None of which is to say I think the Libs will take Thornhill but, holy cow, you'd have to be the worst campaign strategist on earth to not even try.)
Given how much they've done to appease locals, I don't know if they'll be upzoning the area enough for TOD to pay for the station.
Well, first, go tell the locals they've been appeased and see if they agree. But more to the point, we're now talking about two things: TOC and TOD.
TOC is, how much $ is the Province getting from working with developers at the station sites themselves.
The second question is how much intensification will a new station bring, more generally, to the Royal Orchard area.
In terms of TOC, Royal Orchard has that one big plaza and there's a couple of other small sites given that the new alignment actually moved the station box a bit south (and quite a bit underground). In terms of TOD, someone else posted this way back somewhere but Markham undertook a study, hoping to justify the Royal Orchard station, in which they looked at this very thing.
Here it is:
And here's a pic of how they see maximizing Royal Orchard...
So, you're quite right they'er not going far into the neighbourhood at all. And they say they can achive subway-level desnities nonetheless. As I said, I'm not totally sure I buy that (for one, there's pretty limited development potential on the Vaughan side of Yonge) but we should still be clear on where the Province is going to stick its nose in and upzone (only the immediate station site) and then how far Markham is willing to go to facilitate density around the station (somehwat...but not tooooo much).