Richmond Hill Yonge Line 1 North Subway Extension | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx

[allengeorge]

Now that's interesting, where have you come across this info? I don't think this document has stated where the money is coming from.

It’s right after the highlighted section in the tweet.

“While this expanded and improved scope will increase the project’s current budget, we are not seeking additional funding from the Region to invest. Instead, the Province will take on sole funding for the incremental project scope…”

 

[allengeorge]

Royal Orchard already has at least one prime development site they can leverage, so maybe that's why it's confirmed (along with the politics of appeasing residents) but Cummer already has active developments so it may be harder to find a nice spot from which to leverage funding.

Since I like making wagers for internet points around York Region transit matters on this forum I’ll make a two-fer here

1. We will not see a substantial TOC around Royal Orchard
2. The TOC that ends up happening will not pay for the cost of the station

Timelines matter: so I’ll say the next 7 years?

EDIT: Here’s why: the Province/Region seem to be acutely tuned to voters in that area, and the voters there do not want increased density. Both sides will find a way to avoid pissing off people.

 

[Streety McCarface]

It’s right after the highlighted section in the tweet.

“While this expanded and improved scope will increase the project’s current budget, we are not seeking additional funding from the Region to invest. Instead, the Province will take on sole funding for the incremental project scope…”

They are taking in TOC proceeds though. Not sure if it's nearly enough to justify the cost of this station, unless the designers have come up with some big brain solution to that disaster of a station.

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

Since I like making wagers for internet points around York Region transit matters on this forum I’ll make a two-fer here

1. We will not see a substantial TOC around Royal Orchard
2. The TOC that ends up happening will not offset the cost of the station

Timelines matter: so I’ll say the next 7 years?

EDIT: Here’s why: the Province/Region seem to be acutely tuned to voters in that area, and the voters there do not want increased density. Both sides will find a way to avoid pissing off people.

You're assuming TOC is on a site-by-site basis, for which there's no particular evidence. If the TOC is for the YNSE project as a whole, look at the Bridge and High Tech plans (and who knows what's happening at Clark and Steeles) and tell me they can't find enough nickles and dimes for Royal Orchard.

(To be clear: I'm not a fan of the station and it's clearly political that it's getting built. But TOC gives them a nice funding pool to take care of problems like this.)

It’s right after the highlighted section in the tweet.

“While this expanded and improved scope will increase the project’s current budget, we are not seeking additional funding from the Region to invest. Instead, the Province will take on sole funding for the incremental project scope…”

And it's weird you omitted the part right after that which clearly explains that "The Province" does not mean tax dollars.

 

[allengeorge]

And it's weird you omitted the part right after that which clearly explains that "The Province" does not mean tax dollars.

I omitted it because I was responding to a question about whether the Region or the Province would pay for it. The quote clearly states that the Province will.

Now, the Province may choose to try and “offset” (offset does not mean fully pay for) the additional costs after the fact via TOC - but it’s not asking for anything if the TOC cannot deliver the additional funds in full.

In fact - you’re making an unproven assumption that the TOC can fully pay for the cost of the station. I find that intriguing, since to date we actually haven’t seen any numbers on what a TOC in Ontario can deliver in terms of funds.

 

[allengeorge]

You're assuming TOC is on a site-by-site basis, for which there's no particular evidence. If the TOC is for the YNSE project as a whole, look at the Bridge and High Tech plans (and who knows what's happening at Clark and Steeles) and tell me they can't find enough nickles and dimes for Royal Orchard.

If we can include any TOC on the line towards covering for the Royal Orchard Station, I fail to see why Cummer should cover its costs through active developments around it alone, as you stated earlier.

 

[H4F33Z]

York Region/Richmond Hill: We want the subway extended here!!

Province: Okay, here's your subway alignment

Thornhill: No, not there

Prov: Okay, we changed it, now it's here, so it's less impactful.

Thornhill: Okay, but we still want it on Yonge, and we also want an extra station.

Prov: This is already pretty expensive, so we'll just give you a station.

Thornhill: Yay, the station is nice, but we don't want the development and we still don't like the alignment.

Prov: How do you think we'll cover the cost of all of this?

Thornhill:



I just want to kick and scream at all these rich NIMBYs. they're literally getting everything they wanted, and they still have the audacity to complain.

 

[ARG1]

I omitted it because I was responding to a question about whether the Region or the Province would pay for it. The quote clearly states that the Province will.

Now, the Province may choose to try and “offset” (offset does not mean fully pay for) the additional costs after the fact via TOC - but it’s not asking for anything if the TOC cannot deliver the additional funds in full.

But its important because whether or not tax money is going into this is actually the big question behind this. The initial question is "is this coming out of the pockets of York Region residents or Ontarionians?". If the answer is developers building condos, then it really doesn't matter if the intermediary is the province or the region. Actually, when I was suggesting that the region was paying for it, I was assuming that they were paying for it based off the money they were getting from the developers, but if the middleman here is the province instead - it becomes a purely academic distinction.

In fact - you’re making an unproven assumption that the TOC can fully pay for the cost of the station. I find that intriguing, since to date we actually haven’t seen any numbers on what a TOC in Ontario can deliver in terms of funds.

The only unproven assumption is the competence of the province in making this work, not the question of whether it theoretically can work. It can work, and that has been proven over 100 years ago, and continues to be proven in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Paying for subways by massively intensifying is a construction and financial tactic that is about as old as the concept of subways themselves. Moscow's entire business plan with all of their new metro lines is have them mostly payed for by the developers that are turning rural villages into massive high rise clusters, and while a lot can be said about political corruption that is resulting in this business plan, it does at the very least show that it works, and it works well.

 

[allengeorge]

The only unproven assumption is the competence of the province in making this work, not the question of whether it theoretically can work

I thought my statement made that very clear: I specifically point out that we have no numbers for TOCs in Ontario. It’s right there in the sentence of mine you quoted.

At no point do I dispute the general idea of TOCs.

 

[ARG1]

I thought my statement made that very clear: I specifically point out that we have no numbers for TOCs in Ontario.

Well its hard to show numbers when the plans are still being developed. That being said, as I always with these types of questions, what is your reasoning for assuming that Toronto - or I guess Ontario Exceptionalism applies in this case? The only thing I can think of is maybe our much higher construction costs for our subways compared to other countries, but likewise housing costs in Toronto are ballooning out of control, and for the time being the money we can make from developers is quite high.

 

[allengeorge]

But its important because whether or not tax money is going into this is actually the big question behind this. The initial question is "is this coming out of the pockets of York Region residents or Ontarionians?". If the answer is developers building condos, then it really doesn't matter if the intermediary is the province or the region. Actually, when I was suggesting that the region was paying for it, I was assuming that they were paying for it based off the money they were getting from the developers, but if the middleman here is the province instead - it becomes a purely academic distinction.

Let’s be clear here: the money is coming out of the pockets of Ontarians. The province hopes that TOCs can offset some or all of that - but no one can guarantee anything (obviously).

 

[allengeorge]

That being said, as I always with these types of questions, what is your reasoning for assuming that Toronto - or I guess Ontario Exceptionalism applies in this case?

NIMBYism, political culture that avoids risk taking and upsetting voters, high material and labour cost for developers, long planning timelines that also increase costs for developers…

 

[ARG1]

NIMBYism, political culture that avoids risk taking and upsetting voters, high material and labour cost for developers, long planning timelines that also increase costs for developers…

> NIMBYism

Ah yes, plenty of residents that have enough of a stake to complain about this.

The thing is, we sort of already have proven that TOD works. Look at stations like Maple, VMC, Mimico, and Burlington. We are building massive clusters around rail stations. Even near RHC, there have been a ton of midrises and highrises built along Yonge Street over the past 5 or so years, mainly spurred by the Yonge Street Rapidway. The question isn't "can we build it", the question is "how much money can we actually get out of TOCs, and how much would still need to be offset by taxes?", and well, most countries are able to mostly offset the costs from TOD no problem. Heck Vancouver was able to fully fund an infill station on the Canada Line entirely on developer money, and the entirety of the REM is based off the Caisse making a profit off of selling off land to developers. In short, this isn't even a foreign concept in Canada.

 

[allengeorge]

The question isn't "can we build it", the question is "how much money can we actually get out of TOCs, and how much would still need to be offset by taxes?".

Yes - which was my original point. It’s you who took in a different direction

First asking why I was disputing whether TOCs would work in general (I didn’t) and then, whether it could work in Ontario (again, I didn’t - simply questioned how we could make claims that it could pay for Royal Orchard without knowing any numbers - either for the cost of the station, or how much the province got for any TOC it initiated to date. Or, even more basic: which TOCs will be used to offset the cost of Royal Orchard; all of them across the line, or one at Royal Orchard itself.)

 

[ARG1]

Yes - which was my original point. It’s you who took in a different direction

First asking why I was disputing whether TOCs would work in general (I didn’t) and then, whether it could work in Ontario (again, I didn’t - simply questioned how we could make claims that it could pay for Royal Orchard without knowing any numbers - either for the cost of the station, or how much the province got for any TOC it initiated to date.)

Well I can say the same to you. My question was what makes you think we can't generate the necessary funds out of TOCs?