Richmond Hill Yonge Line 1 North Subway Extension | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx

[Forgotten]

York wants this White Elephant so developers can cover its $2B debit considering very little can be built between Steeles and 407 to cover the cost of the line in the first place as well the debit.

This is the ugly truth. York is desperate for another fix of development fees because the city has been mismanaged for decades. They are literally drowning in massive bath tubs full of debt. That is why they want QP and Ottawa to pay for it all. They need a hero to pay to keep the party going for a few more years until the inevitable crash.

 

[Amare]

What do you have to refute it other than your psychological evaluation?

Since you're interested in being York Regions pushboy, let's go through the Metrolinx report shall we:

The report states (and i'm paraphrasing): The Yonge Subway is currently operating ~11% over-capacity and despite ongoing initiatives which would provide some measure of relief (ie: ATC, the Spadina extension, and Smartrack), ridership is expected to reach capacity in 15 years.

-This implies that the Yonge subway will be at capacity by the time any kind of extension of the Yonge line is built​

The report states (paraphrasing once again): GO RER would not significantly alleviate congestion on the Yonge line, thus providing a marginal offsetting effect on the Yonge line

-This implies that GO RER and the DRL are two different beasts. The former would not have as big as a relieving effect as the latter. However this can change depending on the price structure of GO RER.​

The report states: A full-length relief line is the most effective long-term solution to relieve congestion on the Yonge line

-This implies that the DRL would be the project which would allow enough relief to allow for additional capacity to be brought into the Yonge line (ie: Yonge line extension)​

The report states: ATC, the Spadina extension, and GO RER will be enough to meet 15 year demand.

-This implies that these 3 projects will provide sufficient capacity up until the Yonge line reaches capacity again in 2031. Issue is, no one knows exactly when GO RER will be operating (it can be 2021, 2025,2027, etc...) we cant say for sure. ATC and the Spadina extension alone wont provide sufficient capacity for a Yonge line extension to
be built.​

Thus in sum, the currently funded projects will be sufficient to meet capacity for the next 15 years. The Yonge extension would be operating AFTER 2031 in all likelihood, and by that time the Yonge line will be operating over capacity once again. I well aware of what the Metrolinx report stated, but you seem to be interpreting it in a way where the Yonge extension can proceed with no issues whatsoever.

Here is a chart if my explanation wasnt good enough for you:

​

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Thus in sum, the currently funded projects will be sufficient to meet capacity for the next 15 years. The Yonge extension would be operating AFTER 2031 in all likelihood, and by that time the Yonge line will be operating over capacity once again. I well aware of what the Metrolinx report stated, but you seem to be interpreting it in a way where the Yonge extension can proceed with no issues whatsoever.

Exactly. And if you take a look at the most recent modelling using our new software, you'll see that our current relief plans, which is SmartTrack, RER, Relief Line (to Danforth), Spadina Extension, ATO and Toronto Rockets we will be only 400 people per hour below capacity of the line. Yes, that's four-hundred (not a typo), which represents approximately 2 cars on a single Toronto Rocket train. All of our official relief plans are not enough to adequately relieve Yonge. We need to put in place more relief measures before we can discuss Yonge North.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

If anyone truly believes the TTC can achieve 36,000 pphpd by 2021 with ATC and Rocket, and then predicate their analysis with this assumption they are really, really out to lunch - plus the estimated volume to capacity ratio is 96% - I feel almost impolite to ask them what their error bars are.

AoD

I don't trust the ATO capacity projections at all.

1) Over the years, we've seen the projected ATO capacity decrease from about 39,000 pphpd down to 36,000 pphpd. I won't be surprised if the anticipated capacity decreases further.
2) As the subway gets more crowded, we've observed that the real world capacity of Line 1 becomes increasingly erratic from day-to-day. This is because the most volatile component of any transportation system are the humans (passengers). The more passengers you squeeze onto the same line, the amount of line disruptions (passenger alarms, suicides, track fires from trash, etc...) also increase. I was talking to a planner about his, and he did confirm that Line 1's capacity varies dramatically day-to-day because of these disruptions, and that we need to stop trying to fit more people on this line. So while Line 1's theoretical capacity might be 36,000 pphpd, don't be surprised if we loose 3 to 6k pphpd several times a week because of disruptions.
3) Dwell times at Bloor-Yonge Station reducing headway will be an issue. Poor passenger flows at that station can be a further constraint on capacity.

 

[georgevicbell]

Tory needs to do what Ford did with the scarborough subway....get a funding mechanism through council...Ford didn't have a plan, he just started collecting money....starting with a small amount and increasing every year...for 20-30 years.

The city should as part of this funding mechanism propose the following options.

1. Small J - DRL Slow - paid for and built entirely by Toronto over a period of 20-30 years
2. Small J - DRL Fast - paid for and built by Toronto and Province or Feds over a period of 8-10 years
3. Big J - DRL Fast - paid for and built by Toronto/Province and Feds over a period of 8-10 years

The plan should start with plan 1 and depending on when and if the province and feds join in (which there would be significant pressure for them to do) they can proceed to increasing the speed or scope of the project.

At the least we need to be collecting money now for a project of this scope that is basically unavoidable...waiting risks us hitting bad economic times or unfortunate political situations....

 

[W. K. Lis]

In the interim, I suggest York Region use a BRT, or some kind of enhances bus service, north of Steeles. The YNSE isn't isn't coming for another 20 years or so, and York Region whining about it won't make the technical realities go away. Make the best of a bad situation.

The Toronto Civic Railway completed their Danforth streetcar route for service in 1912. The Bloor-Danforth Subway opened in 1963. That's 51 years.

They closed the North Yonge Railways "temporarily" switching from radial streetcars to buses in 1948, after having service from 1885. That's a l-o-n-g temporary suspension for any kind of rail service.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Tory needs to do what Ford did with the scarborough subway....get a funding mechanism through council...Ford didn't have a plan, he just started collecting money....starting with a small amount and increasing every year...for 20-30 years.

The city should as part of this funding mechanism propose the following options.

1. Small J - DRL Slow - paid for and built entirely by Toronto over a period of 20-30 years
2. Small J - DRL Fast - paid for and built by Toronto and Province or Feds over a period of 8-10 years
3. Big J - DRL Fast - paid for and built by Toronto/Province and Feds over a period of 8-10 years

The plan should start with plan 1 and depending on when and if the province and feds join in (which there would be significant pressure for them to do) they can proceed to increasing the speed or scope of the project.

At the least we need to be collecting money now for a project of this scope that is basically unavoidable...waiting risks us hitting bad economic times or unfortunate political situations....

Toronto City Planning is actually looking at municipal revenue tools to pay for transit. Toronto certainly has the revenue raising potential to pay for it's own transit plans. Revenue equivalent to a 1% sales tax within the City of Toronto*, for example, could raise around $750 Million annually for transit. That'd be enough for Toronto to unilaterally fund City Planning's transit proposals in less than 25 years, including the entire Relief Line (Dundas West to Sheppard), Waterfront Transit, Sheppard East, Crosstown East, Crosstown West and Jane LRTs, which is essentially the entire proposed transit system. The issue is that the province hasn't yet given Toronto the tools to pay for these plans.

I use a 1% sales tax only to illustrate how easily Toronto could raise the revenue needed for transit expansion, if the province would allow the City to do so. Different combinations of revenue tools, and funding commitments from other levels of government would reduce this.

If Tory did nothing else this term, I'd like to see him pursue the province for the revenue raising tools. It's the only way we'll get the transit we need. Toronto needs to stop depending on other governments to fund transit.

 

[kEiThZ]

@Amare

What I find unusual is this insistence that York Region should not prioritize the Yonge subway. Why not? Each region should be setting their priorities according to their needs. Now whether the province aceedes to their demands is another matter altogether. But chastising them for asking for it? And then saying that that they shouldn't ask for it becuase they also have other transit issues? I don't see the point in such criticism.

I applaud York Region for making this a priority. And unlike the TYSSE, the biggest beneficiaries of Yonge North line (and most of the ridership) will be from Toronto. I'm hoping the province jumps commits to Yonge North, DRL and some version of Smart Track (or full GO RER what have you) altogether. So that after 15 years, we'll have provided added service to Yonge North without reaching crush load on Yonge. If anything, this should show that relieving Yonge should be priority and would be a bottleneck to expansion in some vote rich regions.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

What I find unusual is this insistence that York Region should not prioritize the Yonge subway. Why not? Each region should be setting their priorities according to their needs. Now whether the province aceedes to their demands is another matter altogether. But chastising them for asking for it? And then saying that that they shouldn't ask for it becuase they also have other transit issues? I don't see the point in such criticism.

I have absolutely nothing wrong with York prioritizing YNSE. They should be prioritizing it, and personally it's one of my top 5 transit priorities. The criticism is for York Region's claim that ATO will provide adequate Yonge Relief before the Relief Line was built, which they'd know is patently false if they read the Yonge line ridership forecasts. It's okay to prioritize about the project, but misrepresenting the situation regarding Yonge crowding won't get them any closer to seeing it built, and is poor network planning.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I'm hoping the province jumps commits to Yonge North, DRL and some version of Smart Track (or full GO RER what have you) altogether. So that after 15 years, we'll have provided added service to Yonge North without reaching crush load on Yonge

In 15 years the Yonge Line will still be over capacity with the YNSE, Relief Line, SmartTrack and GO RER, ATO and TYSSE.

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

What KeithZ said.

No one disputes there are capacity issues and everyone knows they need to be addressed and that funding and years of neglect have created this situation. But to chastise a municipality for seeking to promote transit-oriented development along Yonge Street? That's ridiculous and illogical. Their ASKING for funding for the subway makes more sense than John Tory getting funding for his napkin-based transit plan or Rob Ford asking and getting funding from everyone for his Scarborough plan.

So, in the meantime, the ironic result is that we build RT to transit deserts instead of crucial corridors because we know the latter will be so successful and are so desperately needed that the system can't handle them.

York Region shouldn't be "misleading" anyone but at the end of the day it shouldn't be built because they've convinced Justin Trudeau it should be built. Actual transit experts (i.e. Metrolinx, in theory) have to be convinced its viable. It's unfortunate these things boil down to political jockeying; they shouldn't.

It's true York Region has a $2b debt but the subway is not where they're looking for the solution; indeed, the subway would ADD to their debt. Fact is, people are moving to York Region. You can have them live out at the northern edge of Vaughan and Markham (where their DCs will help pay off the debt) or you can have them living at Yonge/7 (where their DCs will still help pay off the debt). Either way, there's a decent chance they'll be finding their way onto the TTC at some point and clogging it up anyway, if we don't do a lot of things a lot better.

I'm not going to get into a silly contest about capacity modelling. All these things are moving targets. What Toronto and/or the province are building for transit has changed a half dozen times since the Yonge TPAP was completed. The cost has gone up at least 1/3 in the same time frame. Keep waiting and the circumstances will change again.

Build the damned thing, build the DRL, build the RER. Or keep waiting for the stars to align and keep watching Toronto and then the GTA drag itself into an economic abyss, crushed under the weight of its own "success."

 

[Cobra]

Can't say I like York region's approach. Like Keithz said, they are misrepresenting the actual situation with the Yonge line. Trying to bypass the city and province to get this build with total disregard with the state of transit within Toronto is beyond unacceptable and could strain the relationships between both Toronto and York. Some people might think this isn't a big deal but Montreal and it's neighbours is a good example.

The Yellow Line linking Longueuil and Montreal has never been a source of conflict between both cities. Longueuil made their case respectfully and the whole process went smoothly every time something needed to be revisited (Fares, zones, subway extension, etc)

While Laval took an entirely different approach created a nasty feud over the subway between both cities. Laval didn't care the metro couldn't handle the extra ridership from Laval (that stretch on the Orange Line is virtually identical to the Yonge line). Laval went straight to the province to get their extension disregarding Montreal's more urgent need which is the Blue line to the east and rapid transit to West Island. Then Laval threaten to stop paying their share of operating costs because Montreal was charging higher fares to which the city threaten to short turn the train before Laval. Long story short, going at it the wrong way opens the door to territorial skirmishes.

In theory, the way I understand the feds program, York Region can pitch to the Feds but the Feds will only finance what's on the province list. Since Metrolinx agrees that Yonge North can't happen without a Relief Line, the only extension that might happen is from Finch to Steeles.

 

[minilude]

I would think Yonge North should be a package together with DRL funding announcement, even York Region to foot more bills than Toronto, so everyone could be happy, and no obstacle coming afterwards. Hwy7 is a hydro corridor which has better infrastructure (i.e. road/hub/parking) potential than Steeles. How you gonna build huge parking lots and transit loops at Steeles and Yonge?? - plus, without bothering York Region??

 

[Palma]

York Region says they want a Yonge Line extension ahead of the DRL, have pitched it to Justin Trudeau.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/tra...justin-trudeau-on-yonge-subway-extension.html

then they can build fund it and build it themselves

 

[Palma]

Can't say I like York region's approach. Like Keithz said, they are misrepresenting the actual situation with the Yonge line. Trying to bypass the city and province to get this build with total disregard with the state of transit within Toronto is beyond unacceptable and could strain the relationships between both Toronto and York. Some people might think this isn't a big deal but Montreal and it's neighbours is a good example.

The Yellow Line linking Longueuil and Montreal has never been a source of conflict between both cities. Longueuil made their case respectfully and the whole process went smoothly every time something needed to be revisited (Fares, zones, subway extension, etc)

While Laval took an entirely different approach created a nasty feud over the subway between both cities. Laval didn't care the metro couldn't handle the extra ridership from Laval (that stretch on the Orange Line is virtually identical to the Yonge line). Laval went straight to the province to get their extension disregarding Montreal's more urgent need which is the Blue line to the east and rapid transit to West Island. Then Laval threaten to stop paying their share of operating costs because Montreal was charging higher fares to which the city threaten to short turn the train before Laval. Long story short, going at it the wrong way opens the door to territorial skirmishes.

In theory, the way I understand the feds program, York Region can pitch to the Feds but the Feds will only finance what's on the province list. Since Metrolinx agrees that Yonge North can't happen without a Relief Line, the only extension that might happen is from Finch to Steeles.

well once it hits Steeles you have hit York region. Why don't they ask for more GO service instead. That's what GO service is for - Regional travel