Not cynical enough. Here are some simple calculations, based on the original KPMG study that included a ridership survey, and is the closest thing we have to a business plan.
Assume that total capital costs are $500 million, operating costs of DMUs are $900 per trip, and there are 90 trips per day.
If the fare is set at $20, there will be 2 million riders per year, and they will lose $10 per pax, for an annual deficit of $20 million
If the fare is set at $30, there will be 1.8 million riders per year, and they will lose $4 per pax, for an annual deficit of $7 million
If the fare is set at $40, there will be 1.5 million riders per year, and they will break even
Metrolinx is talking about 1.2-1.8 million pax in the first year. So they are probably planning on a fare of $30-$45
1.8 million is 5000 pax per day, or 50 per train. Plenty of room to seat your white elephants!
Edit: based on the same calculations, they can cover 100% of OPERATING costs at a fare of $9. That is what they should do, period.