Toronto The One | 308.6m | 85s | Tridel | Foster + Partners

LoMein said:
Herein lies the problem. This forum appears to be mostly architecture students and/or architecture nerds who are interested in pretty buildings. They aren't interested in the business of development, just the end result. They want this project to go forward and don't have the experience or knowledge to understand the issues that have been apparent for years. So you get a bunch of people cheerleading projects that were doomed from the start.

I remember reading the exact same arguments when Fortress Real was running their scam for years and tons of architecture fans fell for it, hook, line, and sinker.

Reading the comments here make me audibly chuckle. People have ZERO clue what they are talking about and get constant upvotes and validation. But that's the internet for you. The people with actual knowledge and expertise are shouted down by the loud idiots.

This project will be finished one day but it won't be this iteration of the project. If Sam and Jenny were in the US they would be both be getting a full ride scholarship to Con College. The only thing saving them right now is Canada's ineptitude and disinterest in prosecuting white collar crime.
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:rolleyes: What a crock of you know what...
 
zang said:
$100M in a $1B+ property is a pretty small share relatively speaking. I doubt it'd be that hard to find someone with the cash to help him out. Even if Mizrahi doesn't make a cent on this when it's topped off, it gives him the clout to build more that he can, and I'm pretty sure his ultimate goal was always just to move up to the big leagues.
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This is the type of comment that gets upvoted by you folks. ;)

Stick to talking about how the curtain wall looks.
 
LoMein said:
Herein lies the problem. This forum appears to be mostly architecture students and/or architecture nerds who are interested in pretty buildings. They aren't interested in the business of development, just the end result. They want this project to go forward and don't have the experience or knowledge to understand the issues that have been apparent for years. So you get a bunch of people cheerleading projects that were doomed from the start.
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You're mixing up urbantoronto with sites like skyscrapercity or skyscraperforum where there is a lot more "cheerleading" than you'd find here. You'd be surprised how many industry professionals are members on this site, whether they are architects, civil engineers, Registered Professional Planners (and a lot of consulting planners on these projects), and those working in development.

The majority of members here know when a new application is "wishful thinking"/rezoning exercise/actually something real.
 
If this is what is making the news, I can only imagine what is happening behind the scenes. Anyone with an inkling of real estate financial knowledge or industry experience was skeptical about this project from the start. I cannot imagine the liberties that Mizrahi took when doing his initial proforma for financing and to attract equity partners.

Not to mention, an article like this is effectively a kiss of death for projects of this prestige. What investor would want to be associated with a project that has this stigma now? Who would want to even purchase a unit in a building like this?

With prime rate steadily increasing, carrying costs are going up significantly. Construction costs are up even more. I don't see how this project finishes under the Mizrahi banner. Like someone posted above, it's Cresford 2.0.
 
DevDudeToronto said:
If this is what is making the news, I can only imagine what is happening behind the scenes. Anyone with an inkling of real estate financial knowledge or industry experience was skeptical about this project from the start. I cannot imagine the liberties that Mizrahi took when doing his initial proforma for financing and to attract equity partners.

Not to mention, an article like this is effectively a kiss of death for projects of this prestige. What investor would want to be associated with a project that has this stigma now? Who would want to even purchase a unit in a building like this?

With prime rate steadily increasing, carrying costs are going up significantly. Construction costs are up even more. I don't see how this project finishes under the Mizrahi banner. Like someone posted above, it's Cresford 2.0.
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Probably because the underground and first 10 floors were 30-40% of total costs .. It would crazy to stop this far along.
 
LoMein said:
Herein lies the problem. This forum appears to be mostly architecture students and/or architecture nerds who are interested in pretty buildings. They aren't interested in the business of development, just the end result. They want this project to go forward and don't have the experience or knowledge to understand the issues that have been apparent for years. So you get a bunch of people cheerleading projects that were doomed from the start.

I remember reading the exact same arguments when Fortress Real was running their scam for years and tons of architecture fans fell for it, hook, line, and sinker.

Reading the comments here make me audibly chuckle. People have ZERO clue what they are talking about and get constant upvotes and validation. But that's the internet for you. The people with actual knowledge and expertise are shouted down by the loud idiots.

This project will be finished one day but it won't be this iteration of the project. If Sam and Jenny were in the US they would be both be getting a full ride scholarship to Con College. The only thing saving them right now is Canada's ineptitude and disinterest in prosecuting white collar crime.
Click to expand...

Are discussions of the business of development banned from this forum? There are plenty of people (me included) who would love to see such content discussed. To get into the specifics of Mizrahi’s track record, risk assessment of the project, who their equity partners are and how above-board they are (or not), and what that means for the likelihood that the project is successfully built.

My impression is that these things are not discussed due to some combination of:
  • The people who actually have real details are “in the business” and one does not discuss details like this on public forums, it will get you shunned from professional life
  • There is real legal risk (libel) in speculating on the creditworthiness of various equity participants or lenders to a project (in extreme cases there may even be actual real-world risk to ones safety if you start posting details about criminal sources of money)
But like, you say “people with actual knowledge and expertise are shouted down by the loud idiots”. That’s not my experience at all. My experience is that most people with “actual knowledge and expertise” will post some vague nothingness about how the project has shaky financing, without any details, and expect that to count and wonder why they are ignored. We don’t know you, we don’t know your reputation, you’re just a random on the internet trying to be like “I have real connections, trust me”. Nobody trusts anyone since we don’t actually know each other.

In contrast, post real, granular details and you do not get “shouted down”, you get voted up and people listen to you.

So, look, I’m not a regular poster here, and maybe others will have more to say, but my view is: discussions of the business behind the billion-dollar building are not off limits, just give it the same attention to detail and revealing, interesting information that the architecture nerds do, and it can be a great discussion and actually add value to everyone who reads it.
 
LoMein said:
This is the type of comment that gets upvoted by you folks. ;)

Stick to talking about how the curtain wall looks.
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You’re angering everyone because you’re being pretentious, shooting down comments like this without posting how it actually work. So, you have all this experience. Why, specifically, will Mizrahi find it difficult to replace the $30M of lost equity and $70M of lost debt? You don’t need to write a treatise, but give us a window into the world of financing for such projects. Otherwise you just come off as “it’s too complicated for you proles”.
 
LoMein said:
This is the type of comment that gets upvoted by you folks. ;)

Stick to talking about how the curtain wall looks.
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And yours really doesn't. Perhaps you need to change the narrative from asserting things that are not true of the UT community. /shrug
 
The disparaging of members here across the board is both silly and impolite.

****

In respect of this project, I won't waste everyone's time to any great degree as I have nothing to do with this project in any way shape or form and no insider's insight to offer.

I will say, replacing 100M of debt and equity, even on a billion dollar project is not necessarily an easy matter.

It depends on a host of things, including the promised return on investment; whether that is understood to be credible by the investor community (irrespective of whether that understanding is fair or accurate)
the risk profile, associated with schedule, sale closings, future construction costs, penalty clauses to previous investors that may or may not exist or come into force; along with any risk of the other partners/underwriters getting cold feet.

I can't speak to all of the above in any detail at this point (Court may see some of the underlying agreements and their terms come to light)

I have insufficient information at this point to draw any conclusions on the medium term future of this project; but barring an injunction that freezes cashflow or halts construction, things will likely proceed in the near term.
 
LoMein said:
What am I asserting that isn't true?
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Do you need to ask? Well...here it is again in it's entirety:

LoMein said:
Herein lies the problem. This forum appears to be mostly architecture students and/or architecture nerds who are interested in pretty buildings. They aren't interested in the business of development, just the end result. They want this project to go forward and don't have the experience or knowledge to understand the issues that have been apparent for years. So you get a bunch of people cheerleading projects that were doomed from the start.

I remember reading the exact same arguments when Fortress Real was running their scam for years and tons of architecture fans fell for it, hook, line, and sinker.

Reading the comments here make me audibly chuckle. People have ZERO clue what they are talking about and get constant upvotes and validation. But that's the internet for you. The people with actual knowledge and expertise are shouted down by the loud idiots.

This project will be finished one day but it won't be this iteration of the project. If Sam and Jenny were in the US they would be both be getting a full ride scholarship to Con College. The only thing saving them right now is Canada's ineptitude and disinterest in prosecuting white collar crime.
Click to expand...
 
LoMein said:
What am I asserting that isn't true?
Click to expand...

This bit for a start:

LoMein said:
This forum appears to be mostly architecture students and/or architecture nerds who are interested in pretty buildings. They aren't interested in the business of development, just the end result. They want this project to go forward and don't have the experience or knowledge to understand the issues that have been apparent for years. So you get a bunch of people cheerleading projects that were doomed from the start.
Click to expand...

I will be very specific here without naming any names.

This forum has, that I know of, more than one member of various GTA Planning Departments, Planners (plural) from at least 2 of the City's larger firms that do planning on behalf of developers, several professional lobbyists who work in the industry, at least 3 people who work in architecture offices, 2 more in engineering offices, a few active members of the trades, some brokers and several staff, owners and CEOs of developers in the Toronto area, and several more who don't fit a neat industry job title, but who have been around the industry for years and know many of the players (ahem)......

Doubtless, since I don't know everyone's real name or job title here, there are many more knowledgeable people here than I am even aware of......

****

Without a doubt UT also has members with less industry knowledge and some who might even be a tad boosterish...........but across the board that assertion of UT members is simply incorrect.
 
Geoff Olynyk said:
Are discussions of the business of development banned from this forum? There are plenty of people (me included) who would love to see such content discussed. To get into the specifics of Mizrahi’s track record, risk assessment of the project, who their equity partners are and how above-board they are (or not), and what that means for the likelihood that the project is successfully built.

My impression is that these things are not discussed due to some combination of:
  • The people who actually have real details are “in the business” and one does not discuss details like this on public forums, it will get you shunned from professional life
  • There is real legal risk (libel) in speculating on the creditworthiness of various equity participants or lenders to a project (in extreme cases there may even be actual real-world risk to ones safety if you start posting details about criminal sources of money)
But like, you say “people with actual knowledge and expertise are shouted down by the loud idiots”. That’s not my experience at all. My experience is that most people with “actual knowledge and expertise” will post some vague nothingness about how the project has shaky financing, without any details, and expect that to count and wonder why they are ignored. We don’t know you, we don’t know your reputation, you’re just a random on the internet trying to be like “I have real connections, trust me”. Nobody trusts anyone since we don’t actually know each other.

In contrast, post real, granular details and you do not get “shouted down”, you get voted up and people listen to you.

So, look, I’m not a regular poster here, and maybe others will have more to say, but my view is: discussions of the business behind the billion-dollar building are not off limits, just give it the same attention to detail and revealing, interesting information that the architecture nerds do, and it can be a great discussion and actually add value to everyone who reads it.
Click to expand...
Check the thread history. Every time I or somebody else posted the G&M articles outlining this fraud or discussed it any way...we were told to shut up. The mods said it wasn't allowed to be discussed here.

So I get what you're saying and I agree. It's just not what happened in this thread at all.

The One | 308.6m | 85s | Tridel | Foster + Partners

Benito must be a clairvoyant for he picked the best time to go on vacay just before another round of FruitCo drama broke out :p Kinda irrelevant actually. As he'll still likely have a progressing building to take pics of from his perch regardless of any such drama. #TheShowMustGoOn
urbantoronto.ca urbantoronto.ca
 
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