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Toronto Municipal Election 2018: Mayor’s Race

PinkLucy said:
The debate is over, but they said it would be available via Global News for viewing and of course highlights will be on the news this evening.
Click to expand...
Keep watching! Interviews with the candidates, Keesmaat up now, Tory previously.

Keesmaat makes some compelling arguments. Her verbal delivery style needs tweaking, but she's close to being a very convincing speaker.

It's very unfortunate that the questions from the floor (ostensibly Global journos) aren't miked.

The other two candidates are very weak and naive. Well intentioned, but unrealistic.

Keesmaat needs a public affirmation from builders that her claims are correct. Once that is had one way or another, she has a position that could make her mayor.
 
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steveintoronto said:
Keesmaat needs a public affirmation from builders that her claims are correct. Once that is had one way or another, she has a position that could her mayor.
Click to expand...


As I've said before, I don't see how her numbers can work without the mass importation of temporary labour, be it foreign or otherwise. There is a shortage of skilled labour in construction. She came up with an arbitrary number of units and time to complete them.

Sure, unlock land, and then what? Constructors are going to build what they can, not what someone else promised.

Anyone in the industry who will stand publicly behind her claims is in it for the revenue they will generate. I wouldn't believe any such endorsements myself.
 
MTown said:
I don't see how her numbers can work without the mass importation of temporary labour, be it foreign or otherwise.
Click to expand...

MTown said:
Sure, unlock land, and then what? Constructors are going to build what they can, not what someone else promised.
Click to expand...
She's addressed all of that. And rate of construction is off it's earlier peak. Builders "are telling me that they're ready to do this". That is what she needs to have proof of to show the press and other doubters.

Don't be fooled by the "crane count". Be more aware of the "condo cancellations".
BUSINESS
09/11/2018 12:53 EDT | Updated 09/11/2018 12:56 EDT
Waiting For A Toronto House Price Crash? You’ll Be ‘Disappointed,' RBC Says
Just give up already.
By Daniel Tencer, Huff Post
[...]
Construction slowdown
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported a surprise decline in the number of new homes starting construction in August. The annualized rate of construction fell to just under 201,000 housing units, down from nearly 206,000 in July, according to data released Tuesday. Economists had been predicting a pick-up to around 210,000.

The largest pull-back was in Ontario, while British Columbia has seen a mild rebound, though construction is still below the frenzied pace of 2016 or 2017.
[...]
Click to expand...
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/09/11/toronto-house-price-crash_a_23524006/
 
steveintoronto said:
She's addressed all of that. And rate of construction is off it's earlier peak. Builders "are telling me that they're ready to do this". That is what she needs to have proof of to show the press and other doubters.

Don't be fooled by the "crane count". Be more aware of the "condo cancellations".

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/09/11/toronto-house-price-crash_a_23524006/
Click to expand...

As I said, "builders are telling me that they're ready to do this" doesn't mean much. Builders are ready to make money off cheap land that will be "given" to them with the express purpose of having something done with it that will make Keesmaat look good, if it gets done. I bet they're ready....I can already see them salivating.

Why are rates of construction down? Doesn't that suggest a softening of demand? If there's a softening of demand then what is the incentive to build an arbitrarily set number of housing units?

All I'm saying is that Keesmaat could do us all--and herself--a huge favour and get rid of her arbitrarily chosen figure of 100k over 10 years. Concentrate on her idea of selling city-owned land for a specific purpose and leave absolute numbers out of it. Sure, work towards the maximum number of affordable units possible, but don't come up with a number pulled out of a hat and tell us it's as good as done.

I mean, I guess it's a noble goal to pursue, but I shouldn't sell it as being as good as accomplished before it's even attempted.
 
MTown said:
Why are rates of construction down? Doesn't that suggest a softening of demand?
Click to expand...
No. It indicates a sense of hopelessness.

If Marie Antoinette's cake shops aren't selling brioche, does that mean that no-one's hungry?
Rents for condominiums in the Toronto area skyrocketed in the second quarter amid a slump in leasing activity and a severe lack of supply.

Average rents rose 11.2 per cent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, hitting $2,302 for an average unit of 732 square feet, according to Urbanation Inc., a firm that collects and analyzes data on the Toronto condo market.

New condominium project registrations or units recently completed – a strong source of new rental supply — plummeted by 28 per cent to 3,264 units. And the number of condominiums changing hands fell for the third straight quarter with just 7.8 per cent of the Greater Toronto Area’s stock turning over the past 12 months – the lowest level in five years. [...]
Click to expand...

Toronto condo rents skyrocket as supply reaches 'critically low level'

Meantime:
Torontonians overwhelmingly support affordable housing, poll finds — just not in their backyard
Haider-Moranis Bulletin: Nimbyism is often an insurmountable hurdle for the high-density housing this city needs to survive
https://business.financialpost.com/...urce=article_page&utm_medium=related_articles
 
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steveintoronto said:
No. It indicates a sense of hopelessness.
Click to expand...

Does it? I gave up hope trying to find a place I deemed worth the money I was to pay for it yet I still needed a home and found one.


If Marie Antoinette's cake shops aren't selling brioche, does that mean that no-one's hungry?
Click to expand...

Nah, it means they all switched diet.
 
Well you don't exactly fit the normal profile, do you? You'd best re-read what you've written previously.

Here's what happens to many normal people:
Even New Yorkers can't afford a Toronto home - The Globe and Mail

MAY 11, 2018
Local Millennials have had enough of Toronto and Vancouver, and are starting to leave. Statistics Canada’s latest intraprovincial migration numbers show the number of people leaving the cities for different parts of the province, is accelerating. The trend is showing huge growth in the crucial Millennial demographic. A demographic that will be entering their prime earning, and home buying years soon. That’s no bueno.

Net Intraprovincial Migration
Click to expand...
Net intraprovincial migration is the total change of people that left the city, for another part of the province. That is, if 1 person from rural Ontario moves to Toronto, and 0 people leave Toronto, the net intraprovincial migration is 1. If 1 person moves to Ontario, and 3 people from Toronto move to Hamilton, the net intraprovincial migration is -2. Ideally a region attracts more people from other parts of the province than they lose. This number is different from immigration, but is just as important.

Convincing people to immigrate to a city is good, but retaining people is even better. Afterall, cities are built to serve people, not serve as an advertisement for immigration that may be disappointing people once they arrive. A drastic change in these numbers could indicate an underlying problem that isn’t being reflected in current government stats.

Toronto Loses Over 142,000 People To Other Parts Of Ontario
Toronto is seeing the net intraprovincial migration numbers plummet, and that’s bad. From 2012 to 2017, the net intraprovincial migration was -142,465, a 77.53% larger loss than the period before. This means over 142,000 more people left Toronto for other parts of the province, than Toronto attracted. This pace is a lot higher than the pace of population growth.

Toronto Net Intraprovincial Migration
More people are leaving Toronto for other (cheaper) parts of Ontario.
upload_2018-9-25_20-43-5.png

Breaking that down by age brackets, the trend is a little worse than you may anticipate. The 20 to 34 year old age bracket (Millennials) saw a net decline 306.28% larger than the period before. To contrast, the 35 to 49 year age bracket saw a net decline 48.52% larger than the period before. Toronto is losing young people at a very rapid pace, to other parts of the province. [...]
Click to expand...
See Ya! Local Millennials Are Abandoning Toronto and Vancouver ...

etc, etc, etc...
Click to expand...
 

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PinkLucy said:
The debate is over, but they said it would be available via Global News for viewing and of course highlights will be on the news this evening.
Click to expand...

I looked for the full video. All I found was clips. Can anyone direct me to to the full replay?
 
Here's how the vote went last time by riding/ward:

Ward 1 Etobicoke North

Ford 69.39%
Tory 16.81%
Chow 10.49%

Ward 2 Etobicoke Centre

Tory 43.86%
Ford 43.38%
Chow 10.85%

Ward 3 Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Tory 46.59%
Ford 34.25%
Chow 17.05%

Ward 4 Parkdale-High Park

Tory 43.63%
Chow 36.85%
Ford 17.28%

Ward 5 York South-Weston

Ford 59.22%
Tory 20.93%
Chow 16.71%

Ward 6 York Centre

Ford 46.72%
Tory 35.87%
Chow 13.62%

Ward 7 Humber River-Black Creek

Ford 63.61%
Tory 16.34%
Chow 14.92%

Ward 8 Eglinton-Lawrence

Tory 59.66%
Ford 22.9%
Chow 15.26%

Ward 9 Davenport

Chow 41.3%
Ford 30.93%
Tory 24.67%

Ward 10 Spadina-Fort York

Tory 48.6%
Chow 36.62%
Ford 12.87%

Ward 11 University-Rosedale

Tory 48.56%
Chow 38.65%
Ford 10.8%

Ward 12 Toronto-St. Paul's

Tory 56.99%
Chow 26.69%
Ford 14.25%

Ward 13 Toronto Centre

Tory 44.37%
Chow 38.77%
Ford 13.98%

Ward 14 Toronto-Danforth

Tory 41.51%
Chow 37.28%
Ford 18.64%

Ward 15 Don Valley West

Tory 67.55%
Chow 15.28%
Ford 15.23%

Ward 16 Don Valley East

Tory 45.46%
Ford 33.53%
Chow 17.78%

Ward 17 Don Valley North

Tory 43.48%
Ford 34.48%
Chow 19.16%

Ward 18 Willowdale

Tory 47.73%
Ford 28.98%
Chow 20.6%

Ward 19 Beaches-East York

Tory 45.79%
Chow 30.56%
Ford 21.3%

Ward 20 Scarborough Southwest

Ford 41.98%
Tory 33.9%
Chow 21.14%

Ward 21 Scarborough Centre

Ford 51.42%
Tory 28.06%
Chow 16.87%

Ward 22 Scarborough-Agincourt

Ford 49.13%
Tory 29.16%
Chow 17.39%

Ward 23 Scarborough North

Ford 53.66%
Tory 22.67%
Chow 18.87%

Ward 24 Scarborough-Guildwood

Ford 47.65%
Tory 32.96%
Chow 15.68%

Ward 25 Scarborough-Rouge Park

Ford 47.48%
Tory 33.39%
Chow 15.91%

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272718.msg6243731#msg6243731
 
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