The average price of diesel in 2007 was 92.5¢. Today it is 135.2¢. An increase of 46%.
The average demand price for electricity in May, 2007 was 4.67¢. Today it is 5.04¢. An increase of 8%.
Even before the increases, the operating and maintenance costs of a light rail system was cheaper that a bus.
Do they still want a BRT in Mississauga, and not a LRT? And there are rumors that it could go over 150¢ by mid-summer.
Back in 2004 I said the BRT should be LRT from day one. I still see the same thing.
From a capital cost point, LRT is cheaper. On operating cost, the same thing.
Over the course of 25 years allowing for increase of capital cost for replacement, a 3% increase of wages, taking a guess where fuel would be at a lower rate than what happen and a few other things, LRT would save $250 million over an BRT system operating every 5 minutes.
Using GO figures that end up being lower than the first EA, you would see a double deck bus every 45 seconds.
I used 40', 60', double deck buses vs 1-5 car LRT's.
GO argument has been that one end will have poor ridership and you have the ability to add buses for sections that has high ridership. Also, you can branch off the line to service other areas. Yes, BRT can branch off to reduce the transfer needs.
I have been asked by Metrolinx as far back as last year if there was a problem converting the BRT to LRT and said "no". The answers is still "no".
The BRT is still in the design stage and to covert the road to tracks is no big deal. Everything is been design for future LRT needs today. Therefore you move from 20-25 years down the road to today use. Up front capital cost to do it will have to be added as well building the missing section west of Sq One. It will be cheaper and will attract more riders faster.
If you add 20 stops to the 407/403 from Sq One to RHC vs the current 1 stop to the airport that GO has started, you are looking at about 45 minute ride vs the current 30-45 depending on the time of day service. Running 15 minute service vs the current 60 would more attracted.
If I had to waited 55 minutes for that GO bus last Thursday, I would have taken VIVA, TTC and MT home. That waiting would off set my travel saving by using a 403/407 service.
Keep in mind you have to look a labour cost as to what it cost each system as that is where the real cost is. 1 bus driver can move 55-75 seated riders where 1 LRT driver can move 66-396+ riders seated. Add in standees, there is a huge gap in comparison.
How does $2/liter+ sound by 2010? Europe is around $2.25 a liter. US is to see $4-$5 a gal US. We pay about $4.80 for a US gal now. Driving in the states on a trip is saving you money compare for the same trip here.
Funny part, no one thinks twice as to how much you have to pay for a bottle of water. Water cost 2-4 times as much as gas depending where and how you buy your water.