Toronto Eglinton Line 5 Crosstown West Extension | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx

And yet the province likes to cry wolf that we dont have money for this, and dont have money for that. This goes to show that even if they magically found billions of dollars under a rock, they would go on to waste it on stupid endeavors like this.
 
Preliminary conceptual photos on the virtual open house.

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Streety McCarface said:
This will serve at least twice as many riders from day one, regardless of the alignment/grade separation design.
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The Hamilton LRT was projected to have between 42,000-50,000 daily boardings in 2031.


This compares to 37,000 daily boardings for the Eglinton West LRT as currently planned, which costs roughly 2x as much. The *lowest* ridership Eglinton West LRT option had only 23,000 daily boardings, less than half of the Hamilton LRT.

Sorry, no.
 
Streety McCarface said:
This will serve at least twice as many riders from day one, regardless of the alignment/grade separation design.
Click to expand...
No idea where you're getting you're numbers from. That's unless you're talking about the central portion of the Crosstown project.

Asides from that, this is blatantly false.
 
innsertnamehere said:
The Hamilton LRT was projected to have between 42,000-50,000 daily boardings in 2031.


This compares to 37,000 daily boardings for the Eglinton West LRT as currently planned, which costs roughly 2x as much. The *lowest* ridership Eglinton West LRT option had only 23,000 daily boardings, less than half of the Hamilton LRT.

Sorry, no.
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Metrolinx quoted 30K for the Hamilton LRT
Screen Shot 2020-04-01 at 10.18.18 PM.png

Note this is ridership in 2031 (>5 years after it's originally scheduled completion) with 6-minute frequencies, a fair assumption for an actual line

Boardings for the crosstown west does not equate to a line's usage, especially for a commuter focused line like this one. You can pretty much double 37K boardings since the vast majority of people are getting off at Cedarvale or Eglinton-Yonge.

If I commute from Kipling (Line 5) to Osgoode and back daily, under the "boardings" ridership model for this extension, I would only be counted once per day despite taking the new section of the crosstown twice per day. The actual ridership for this extension will likely be 65-80K passengers per day when it opens, and significantly more when it's extended to Pearson or ridership matures over a decade.

Amare said:
No idea where you're getting you're numbers from. That's unless you're talking about the central portion of the Crosstown project.

Asides from that, this is blatantly false.
Click to expand...
See above. Context is everything.

Let me be clear, I am a supporter of the Hamilton LRT, but to say that my claims are blatantly false without actually looking closely at the data is misleading.
 
Streety McCarface said:
Metrolinx quoted 30K for the Hamilton LRT
View attachment 239254
Note this is ridership in 2031 (>5 years after it's originally scheduled completion) with 6-minute frequencies, a fair assumption for an actual line

Boardings for the crosstown west does not equate to a line's usage, especially for a commuter focused line like this one. You can pretty much double 37K boardings since the vast majority of people are getting off at Cedarvale or Eglinton-Yonge.

If I commute from Kipling (Line 5) to Osgoode and back daily, under the "boardings" ridership model for this extension, I would only be counted once per day despite taking the new section of the crosstown twice per day. The actual ridership for this extension will likely be 65-80K passengers per day when it opens, and significantly more when it's extended to Pearson or ridership matures over a decade.


See above. Context is everything.

Let me be clear, I am a supporter of the Hamilton LRT, but to say that my claims are blatantly false without actually looking closely at the data is misleading.
Click to expand...
Half of the Metrolinx Business Cases from the mid 2010's were flawed and we all know it. Those Business Cases made it seem like they arbitrarily picked numbers that seemingly came form the sky for their own convenience, which make the "data" highly misleading.

They occurred so early in the process and used so many assumptions, many of which would change later in the process. Changes to any of these assumptions can completely change the result, as we have seen here. With this case in particular that you highlighted, the report was hidden from release for the longest time before it was leaked and who knows why it was hidden.

After they came out with that Business Case which would have allowed for a Kirby GO Station to proceed, while rejecting a Park Lawn station I knew that their methodology at the time was so crooked up that it couldnt be taken at face value.
 
Streety McCarface said:
Metrolinx quoted 30K for the Hamilton LRT
View attachment 239254
Note this is ridership in 2031 (>5 years after it's originally scheduled completion) with 6-minute frequencies, a fair assumption for an actual line

Boardings for the crosstown west does not equate to a line's usage, especially for a commuter focused line like this one. You can pretty much double 37K boardings since the vast majority of people are getting off at Cedarvale or Eglinton-Yonge.

If I commute from Kipling (Line 5) to Osgoode and back daily, under the "boardings" ridership model for this extension, I would only be counted once per day despite taking the new section of the crosstown twice per day. The actual ridership for this extension will likely be 65-80K passengers per day when it opens, and significantly more when it's extended to Pearson or ridership matures over a decade.


See above. Context is everything.

Let me be clear, I am a supporter of the Hamilton LRT, but to say that my claims are blatantly false without actually looking closely at the data is misleading.
Click to expand...
31,000 for westbound boardings. Add the 10,000 eastbound and you get 42k.

given that one direction is significantly lower than the other, I’m going to guess that actual trips is double the 42k number just like eglinton.

seriously, why make shit up? Just admit you are wrong.
 
I'm getting tired of reading all the complains of this project. Are we going to keep this up for the next decade? Ford has heard the citizens of Etobicoke loud and clear that they want a subway and decided he will deliver. It seems like the decision is made and will happen before the next election unless COVID-19 blows it way off course. Constantly expressing your hatred on the underground option isn't helping. It's not news and not exciting to read at all.

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Back on topic.

It seems like ML has chosen the cheapest way of TBM with a launch shaft at Renforth and boring the entire ~6.2km tunnel in one go taking around 3 years to build. This effectively puts the construction time in 8-10 years range depending on how much has ML learnt from the crosstown mistakes.

I don't think we'll see plans of the line reaching the airport till the decides on a location for a new terminal. Either way it won't be part of this contract.

I like how the are keeping the pedestrian bridge west of Scarlett which was originally planned (as stated in the 2010 EA) to be demolished with the surface alignment with no replacements.
 
Steve X said:
I'm getting tired of reading all the complains of this project. Are we going to keep this up for the next decade? Ford has heard the citizens of Etobicoke loud and clear that they want a subway and decided he will deliver. It seems like the decision is made and will happen before the next election unless COVID-19 blows it way off course. Constantly expressing your hatred on the underground option isn't helping. It's not news and not exciting to read at all.

------
Back on topic.

It seems like ML has chosen the cheapest way of TBM with a launch shaft at Renforth and boring the entire ~6.2km tunnel in one go taking around 3 years to build. This effectively puts the construction time in 8-10 years range depending on how much has ML learnt from the crosstown mistakes.

I don't think we'll see plans of the line reaching the airport till the decides on a location for a new terminal. Either way it won't be part of this contract.

I like how the are keeping the pedestrian bridge west of Scarlett which was originally planned (as stated in the 2010 EA) to be demolished with the surface alignment with no replacements.
Click to expand...
Yet he "heard" the demands of Hamilton loud and clear and won't deliver there.

It speaks to the hypocrisy of him. This one runs right by his house so it's top priority despite having a terrible business case. And of course it has to be a subway.

Meanwhile Hamilton has a fully supported, nearly shovel ready LRT project that would be completely transformational for the community, and Ford goes "eh, screw em".

It's insufferable.
 
Amare said:
Half of the Metrolinx Business Cases from the mid 2010's were flawed and we all know it. Those Business Cases made it seem like they arbitrarily picked numbers that seemingly came form the sky for their own convenience, which make the "data" highly misleading.

They occurred so early in the process and used so many assumptions, many of which would change later in the process. Changes to any of these assumptions can completely change the result, as we have seen here. With this case in particular that you highlighted, the report was hidden from release for the longest time before it was leaked and who knows why it was hidden.

After they came out with that Business Case which would have allowed for a Kirby GO Station to proceed, while rejecting a Park Lawn station I knew that their methodology at the time was so crooked up that it couldnt be taken at face value.
Click to expand...
And you're suggesting the current methodology is any better? Because that's what got Hamilton canceled in the first place. Also, this was an independent study, not an internal Metrolinx study.

Politicians are going to choose the lines they want to build and that's the unfortunate reality of things, but to suggest that ridership potential didn't have any influence here is extremely misleading.
innsertnamehere said:
31,000 for westbound boardings. Add the 10,000 eastbound and you get 42k.

given that one direction is significantly lower than the other, I’m going to guess that actual trips is double the 42k number just like eglinton.

seriously, why make shit up? Just admit you are wrong.
Click to expand...
31K + 10K = 41K, not 42K, and is still less than the 50K that was originally quoted. I'm not making anything up. Be civil.
 
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The 50k is from the 4 minute frequency forecast.

Technically the total is 41,500 when added, so I rounded up. I did it as rough math in my head as well, it wasn't exact. And it's 1k difference.

My point stands that its not "less than half" of the Eglinton West LRT ridership.
 
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