News   Jul 09, 2024
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The Coming Disruption of Transport

Would you buy an EV from a Chinese OEM?

  • Yes

    Votes: 16 16.8%
  • No

    Votes: 63 66.3%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 16 16.8%

  • Total voters
    95
No one is buying Chinese made EVs. "Made in China" has too much stigma in the western world.

They have a fairly strong growth curve within the BEV market in Europe, particularly Spain and France. The bigger question is will BEVs replace ICE.

2024_03_image11.png


 
Is that the question? The timescale is maybe up for debate, but it is going to happen.

There are laws to encourage that transition but it's not yet clear the European is fully onboard. A small bout of populism can easily delay the dates if not repeal them entirely.


UK mind-share seems to be leaning heavily toward Hydrogen for both home heating and vehicles. Even nearly free (heavily subsidized) heat-pump installations are struggling there due to electricity rate fears.

Anyway, yeah, I'd say it's more likely for Chinese designed BEVs to dominate the European BEV market than it is for BEVs to pass 50% of new vehicle market share in the EU + UK. That's more a statement about certainty of Chinese BEV dominance than any expectation of BEV alternatives.
 
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There are laws to encourage that transition but it's not yet clear the European is fully onboard. A small bout of populism can easily delay the dates if not repeal them entirely.


UK mind-share seems to be leaning heavily toward Hydrogen for both home heating and vehicles. Even nearly free (heavily subsidized) heat-pump installations are struggling there due to electricity rate fears.

Anyway, yeah, I'd say it's more likely for Chinese designed BEVs to dominate the European BEV market than it is for BEVs to pass 50% of new vehicle market share in the EU + UK. That's more a statement about certainty of Chinese BEV dominance than any expectation of BEV alternatives.
Hydrogen has the small problem of being a thermodynamically silly idea. It isn't scalable and it isn't economic.

If we are suggesting to make it out of natural gas, we'd be better off burning the gas directly and skipping the trillion dollar greenwashing infrastructure.

If we are suggesting green hydrogen, it takes 3x the electricity to make hydrogen first to fuel a FCEV vs a BEV so is kind of inherently more expensive.
 
No one is buying Chinese made EVs. "Made in China" has too much stigma in the western world.
Not true. In 2023 Canada imported over 44,000 EVs from China, mostly Teslas made in Shanghai, but also Volvo's Polestars made in Chengdu, China.

China-made Teslas pour into Canada

Polestar is slated to move production for the US market to the USA, but only due to Biden's sanctions. If Canada does not follow suit, we'll be a dumping ground for Chinese EVs.
 
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It shouldn't be a surprise that Rivian is burning cash. If the legacy automakers can't figure out how to turn a profit from EVs. Then what chance does a smaller company like Rivian have?
With the right partners, a good chance, I'd say.
Paywall free: https://archive.is/1YH23
 
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I've been seeing a lot of those Rivians on the road lately.
Mrs. and I are planning to retire and reduce to a single car in the next five to six years. By then our current vehicles will be ready for replacement, and we plan to go to just one vehicle. I will not give any money to Elon, so Tesla is out. The compact Rivian R3 looks ideal for our small parking pad.

 
With the right partners, a good chance, I'd say.
Paywall free: https://archive.is/1YH23
It's a bit of a desperation move. Rivian is still burning cash at over $1B per quarter, and this infusion will lead to significant dilution of existing shareholders.
 

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