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The Coming Disruption of Transport

Would you buy an EV from a Chinese OEM?

  • Yes

    Votes: 17 17.2%

  • No

    Votes: 66 66.7%

  • Maybe

    Votes: 16 16.2%
  • Total voters
    99
Bojaxs said:
That video is sped up for a reason, autonomous shunt trucks are incredibly slow. A skilled shunter would be more productive than 3 of these combined.
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The speed of the equipment is important but not a deal-breaker. I'm familiar with similar applications, despite each piece of equipment being slower, the fact that one operator can mind 8-10 machines and the machines work potentially 3 shifts per day can make them economical. And of course, the speed will improve.
 
Bojaxs said:
I work in Intermodal for CN rail. I deal with truck drivers everyday. You're never going to get an autonomous truck to come into the intermodal yard and grabs it's container full of Ontario asparagus. Not unless CN completely redesigns their intermodal yard to accommodate autonomous trucks. Which isn't going to happen anytime soon. I assure you.

Also note you put "lack of drivers" & "low wages" right next to each other. Hmmmmm,,, interesting.
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Several organizations within Canada and the USA (and Internationally) have been documenting truck driver shortages currently and projected. Wage issues seem harder to document - there have been changes in the USA re overtime, and Canadian reports continue to document the struggles to retain drivers at current wage levels. Anecdotally that is our experience as well.

My experiences with rail and logistics have not always been favourable. And I am not here to take shots at you or your company. Nor am I an expert on rail operations. But for whatever reason - rules, industry mentality - we hear a lot (in discussions we have had with rail) about what rail cannot do, as opposed to what might be possible. As efficient as rail can be, my own thoughts are that there needs to be a fundamental change in thought process, possibly rule structure, tax structure, and rails views on technology change for this industry to grow past its bulk commodity based business model.

The use of autonomous trucking is coming, perhaps in limited circumstances to begin with. But the autonomous movement of packaged goods has begun and is found in any major logistics facility around the world. Now this is being extended to the yard (as pointed out below), and then to the street. The question to CN ( or CPKC, BNSF etc) is not that you would not be interested in reworking your yard or yard practices, but why are you not planning right now to take advantage, and running trials to gain experience, best practices and refine emerging technologies. The labour and productivity advantages could be huge and long lasting, especially if you grow your market.

I am happy to be corrected on any of the above if you feel i am fundamentally incorrect. I am currently in Montreal and have a nice view of rail operations in west Montreal right now. It will be interesting to see what comes out of the call for tenders to develop the new major greenfield expansion project in Contrecoeur - the south shore container port. This call will apparently happen this year.
 
There are rumours of a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs entering the US being implemented. I'm not sure that is enough to stem the tide of cheap Chinese EVs that's going to wash over the industry.
 
I came across an interesting startup that seems like it has a lot of merit in solving the last mile problem for goods delivery, at first incrementally, and theoretically eventually to your front door. It involves laying 24" pipes to carry small autonomous drones underground from origin points to pickup points. Leveraging a lot of existing infrastructure knowledge. It gets away from a lot of the problems like Starship Technologies wheeled robots rolling on sidewalks, avoiding getting run over by cars, messed with by pedestrians, navigating snow, etc. Same with issues with airborne drones that have concerns around noise, safety, privacy and so on (Zipline seems like the best example I have seen).

As new infrastructure, it relies on some network effects which might be difficult to get going. However, it doesn't need to fully solve the late mile problem to create value so it can be bootstrapped.

I think a solution like this will be very helpful in avoiding the worst outcomes of autonomous vehicles delivering goods on roads/sidewalks driving up vehicular traffic and congestion.

Two videos. The first is a shorter PopSci level explanation of the technology, the second is a longer interview with the founder.

My biggest question would be pest management in large underground tubes potentially providing ingress into buildings.


 
afransen said:
Utilities do it all the time. My stretch was recently messed up to hydrovac in some conduit for fiber.
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Sure. Is it 24" (ish) in diameter? Would a large diameter pipe go to every house or some automated local place (like a community mail box)? Upfront installation costs? Easement laws and costs (it would be in land 'they' don't own)?

Sorry, I don't get giggly over every Youtube good idea fairy looking for angel investors.
 
Interesting idea but a good illustration of how many variables have to be thought out before an idea goes from concept to implementation.... which is why something people see in youtube doesn't just turn up next week.

Ideal diameter? Set by whom? Development and application of industry standards for types and dimensions of packages? Spacing of access channels? Desirability of human accessibility? Contingency for the obvious potential failure scenarios (and the standard of probability to be applied - once in a decade? once in thirty years?) ? Need for on-hand emergency equipment and infrastructure? Spinklers? Halon systems? Drainage systems? Ventilation? Lighting? Who trains the fire department and in what? How to assess risk for insurability? Hazmat limitations?

Having said all that, the economics of a self-driving LRT line from the CN Milton Terminal to the Bramalea Milton Terminal, passing through or close to all the most important logistics sites in Halton-Peel, perhaps looping through Pearson Airport, and thereby the cost savings of road construction and maintenance, carbon savings, and labour for all those container bearing trucks.... it's less pie in the sky than one might think. People aren't the only thing we need non-road infrastructure for.

- Paul
 
lenaitch said:
Sure. Is it 24" (ish) in diameter? Would a large diameter pipe go to every house or some automated local place (like a community mail box)? Upfront installation costs? Easement laws and costs (it would be in land 'they' don't own)?

Sorry, I don't get giggly over every Youtube good idea fairy looking for angel investors.
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Their short term target is more intra logistics for single property owners. Apparently they have a deal to pilot order pickup at a Wendy's.

The problem is that small item delivery is not going to go away and is if anything going to get worse as the cost declines with automation.
 
crs1026 said:
Having said all that, the economics of a self-driving LRT line from the CN Milton Terminal to the Bramalea Milton Terminal, passing through or close to all the most important logistics sites in Halton-Peel, perhaps looping through Pearson Airport, and thereby the cost savings of road construction and maintenance, carbon savings, and labour for all those container bearing trucks.... it's less pie in the sky than one might think. People aren't the only thing we need non-road infrastructure for.

- Paul
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That's a different model, which would require surface rails to move shipping containers.

I think they landed on 24" as it accommodated 99% of the unit volume sold on Amazon and most large grocery items.

Would Amazon be interested in a solution that let them sell free 1 hr pickup from a parcel locker a couple hundred meters away?

It's also intended as a middle mile solution. You could still have a delivery worker on foot or on a bike running the last couple hundred meters to a.door. It would be substantially more productive than the current model of waiting at a restaurant.
 
afransen said:
That's a different model, which would require surface rails to move shipping containers.

I think they landed on 24" as it accommodated 99% of the unit volume sold on Amazon and most large grocery items.

Would Amazon be interested in a solution that let them sell free 1 hr pickup from a parcel locker a couple hundred meters away?
Click to expand...

Fair enough, but one has to assume this technology would have hubs and transloads from one mode to the other. And so much freight moves from airport or container terminal to the solution centers - mostly by road. Maybe moving the freight to the solution center needs better solutions also.

- Paul
 
afransen said:
There are rumours of a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs entering the US being implemented. I'm not sure that is enough to stem the tide of cheap Chinese EVs that's going to wash over the industry.
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Keeping Chinese EVs out of the US is the easy part. But none of these legacy automakers can survive on their home markets alone. And as Chinese EVs displace ICE and hybrids elsewhere they'll be in trouble.
 
afransen said:
Utilities do it all the time. My stretch was recently messed up to hydrovac in some conduit for fiber.
Click to expand...

If we aren't willing to build pipes to distribute hydrogen, no way we're building this. The economics just wouldn't pencil out. That's a lot of capital expenditure to avoid rather little delivery cost.

It's probably a good solution for enclosed neighbourhoods like college or large corporate campuses or even HOAs. But that's probably the limit of scale.
 
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