The Coming Disruption of Transport

[urbancog]

The Niagara Parks Commission is looking for "the private sector to bring innovative and sustainable ideas" for a "visitor transportation system at Niagara Parks". The RfP description states:

The Niagara Parks Commission (“NPC”) is seeking to engage the private sector for a potential Revenue Generating Opportunity for a value-add visitor transportation system at Niagara Parks.

NPC is looking to the private sector to bring innovative and sustainable ideas forward.

Project goals include:

• Enhancing the guest experience for visitors to both Niagara Parks

• Providing a transportation experience that is value add to the guests’ overall experience at Niagara Parks

• Creating a new revenue source for Niagara Parks

• Reducing expenses for Niagara Parks

• Contributing to Niagara Parks’ goal of reducing vehicle use along the Niagara Parkway, particularly in Queen Victoria Park

• Providing an environmentally sustainable solution and reducing carbon emissions from vehicles

• Address a visitor transportation capacity issue within the core of Niagara Parks operations (i.e. Queen Victoria Park)

The intent of the visitor transportation system is to link Niagara Parks’ key guest experiences, ranging from attractions, heritage sites and commercial nodes. The main area of focus will be Queen Victoria Park, where visitor transportation capacity is most challenged, while working in conjunction with Niagara Parks’ busing system (WEGO) transportation linkages to the north and possibly the south parkway.

Through this RFP, NPC is seeking interest from the private sector to design, build, finance, operate and maintain a revenue generating transportation system under a long-term lease agreement with NPC subject to provincial approval of an Order in Council.

More detailed requirements are set out in the Project Description Appendix.

RfP page on Bonfire

 

[rdaner]

It just clicked for me why developers are providing ever increasing amounts of bicycle parking in new buildings. The explosion of electric mobility devices like scooters, e-bikes and so on means more non-car parking is needed! Lol

 

[mburrrrr]

It just clicked for me why developers are providing ever increasing amounts of bicycle parking in new buildings. The explosion of electric mobility devices like scooters, e-bikes and so on means more non-car parking is needed! Lol

View attachment 525147

Explosion or increase in #s or both?
Brookfield concerned about fire risk or dirt or both.

 

[Admiral Beez]

To be clear, I'm no fan of legacy OEMs. Particularly the North American OEMs which have long had a shady history. I, especially, hate the dealer franchise model they foisted on us. But I am also quite bullish on electrification and very optimistic that it will go faster than most people expect. I just don't think it will go as fast as Tesla fans imagine it will. I've seen the stuff from the EV bulls on YouTube to the Tesla forums predicting total demise of all legacy OEMs by 2030. Spend 5 minutes actually looking at the numbers yourself and all of a sudden it doesn't look nearly as dire. Big picture, most countries aren't banning the sales of gas cars till 2035. So I look at whether a given OEM has plans for that date.

2035 is now our date as well, assuming the Cons don’t call it.

Canada lays out road map for electric vehicle key 2035 targets | Globalnews.ca

Ottawa is requiring carmakers to sell cars that emit no emissions by 2035. The government's strategy allows carmakers to earn and swap credits by selling electric vehicles.

globalnews.ca

My issue is that the cheapest EVs cost more than the average Canadian median after-tax household income of $39,600. Meanwhile, Canadians have access to many cheap new ICE cars under $25K.

So, Canada through C3 (Cheap Chinese Crap) or other means needs to get us cheaper EVs. And no, not through taxpayer-funded incentives - the country’s already broke.

 

[kEiThZ]

2035 is now our date as well, assuming the Cons don’t call it.

They probably will.

My issue is that the cheapest EVs cost more than the average Canadian median after-tax household income of $39,600. Meanwhile, Canadians have access to many cheap new ICE cars under $25K.

Have you looked at the average price of a new car? It's pushing $50k.

People are getting way too worked up about this mandate. As usual with politics. It's 12 years away. Do you remember where EVs were 12 years ago? Heck, our current sales trend line pretty much has us on course to meet targets. This just ensures automakers provide the supply (which they haven't been doing).

Also, the mandate includes plug in hybrids. I don't think it's hard for OEMs to offer PHEVs around $25-30k.

So, Canada through C3 (Cheap Chinese Crap) or other means needs to get us cheaper EVs. And no, not through taxpayer-funded incentives - the country’s already broke.

Have you seen the Chinese EVs in Europe and Australia? They make stuff put out by Detroit look like Ford Pintos. There's a reason Musk said that the only competition he worries about is Chinese.

By the way we already have Chinese made EVs on our roads and nobody would say they are cheap or crap. Look at Polestar.

 

[afransen]

Most of the Teslas sold in Canada these days are made in Shanghai.

 

[Admiral Beez]

By the way we already have Chinese made EVs on our roads and nobody would say they are cheap or crap. Look at Polestar.

Fair point, and I’ll admit my post sounds a little outdated, like those old made in Japan jokes. So, I take it back. I’m just a little frustrated with my own procurement projects from China where the quality and execution has been subpar.

While China is more than capable of making good products; when the West is intentionally seeking low quality, ultra low cost goods, China is where we go. And that’s likely the only way we’ll get new EVs that cost less than the average household’s after tax income. So, I envision fleets of low cost Chinese cars in 2040 Canada.

 

[kEiThZ]

They are buying up European marques or partnering up and manufacturing them in China. Look at the purchase of MG by SAIC and MINIs now made in China under a BMW partnership.

 

[afransen]

My issue is that the cheapest EVs cost more than the average Canadian median after-tax household income of $39,600.

Where did you get this figure? From your link:

The median after-tax income of Canadian families and unattached individuals was $68,400 in 2021

$40k after tax is kind hard to believe as a median as that would be two full-time minimum wage earners.

Keep in mind that EVs are typically much less expensive to operate, so from a TCO perspective, they are not that much more expensive than ICE, depending on your use case.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Where did you get this figure? From your link:

It's in the same link.

Among family types, the median after-tax income increased to $39,600 (+6.7%) in 2021 from the previous year for unattached persons aged younger than 65.​

My point above is that EVs now cost more than the average Canadian's annual income, while there are lots of ICE cars that remain below this.

 

[MisterF]

After prices rising last year due to pandemic-related issues, EV battery prices are now falling again. Down 14% in 2023 with the downward trend expected to continue. EVs being more expensive than ICE cars won't last much longer.

Lithium-Ion Battery Pack Prices Hit Record Low of $139/kWh

 

[afransen]

It's in the same link.

Among family types, the median after-tax income increased to $39,600 (+6.7%) in 2021 from the previous year for unattached persons aged younger than 65.​

My point above is that EVs now cost more than the average Canadian's annual income, while there are lots of ICE cars that remain below this.

Your quote is for unattached Canadians under 65, which will tend to skew younger, less skilled, and thus lower income. The median family income is closer to $70k. Your point about relative affordability notwithstanding. Given that many consumers finance vehicle purchases, affordability is largely a function of monthly cost. If you drive a lot of km, have a decent finance rate and can charge at home, an EV can be cheaper than a similar ICE vehicle. Eventually upfront cost will converge, while battery performance improves.

I recently bought a Model Y and did the TCO math. I was most surprised that insurance was nearly the same for a new Model Y as a 3-4 year old Mazda/Honda/Toyota CUV (this was my cross-shop). Between big incentives for new EV (I got 11k off MSRP between Tesla, federal government and my insurance company) and fuel cost differential and assumed terminal value after 10 years and finance cost, it was about the same on a per KM basis, to slightly favourable for EV. And now I am somewhat hedged against fuel costs. Carbon tax may go away, or it may stick around and escalate.

 

[Towered]

So how are those autonomous vehicles coming along?

 

[afransen]

So how are those autonomous vehicles coming along?

Cruise had a bit of a setback due mainly to the lying to regulators about the incident where a human driver struck a pedestrian knocking them into the path of one of their vehicles.

Waymo is progressing, they recently doubled the size of their service area in Phoenix and are picking people up from the airport.

Tesla is touting some recent advances in their FSD beta software, as yet unreleased to the public. It is still clearly not ready for prime time.

It's just a matter of time. The amount of AI compute is growing by leaps and bounds. I am baffled by people who confidently declare that autonomy is impossible for decades given where we are now, and how surprised people have been by AI advances in the past few years. I expect it will be no earlier than 2030 before it is widely deployed, but the technology could well be ready in the next couple of years. Tesla has the only real plan to deploy it widely once developed. All the other players would need a long time to scale due to their vehicle strategy.

 

[Towered]

Cruise had a bit of a setback due mainly to the lying to regulators about the incident where a human driver struck a pedestrian knocking them into the path of one of their vehicles.

Waymo is progressing, they recently doubled the size of their service area in Phoenix and are picking people up from the airport.

Tesla is touting some recent advances in their FSD beta software, as yet unreleased to the public. It is still clearly not ready for prime time.

It's just a matter of time. The amount of AI compute is growing by leaps and bounds. I am baffled by people who confidently declare that autonomy is impossible for decades given where we are now, and how surprised people have been by AI advances in the past few years. I expect it will be no earlier than 2030 before it is widely deployed, but the technology could well be ready in the next couple of years. Tesla has the only real plan to deploy it widely once developed. All the other players would need a long time to scale due to their vehicle strategy.

Good! I'm tired of driving. I just want to hop in a car, say "take me to my destination, Jeeves!" and have a nap.