The Coming Disruption of Transport

[rbt]

So how are those autonomous vehicles coming along?

Waymo provided 700,000 driverless rides this year, an order of magnitude higher than last year. Long way from covering the continent but it's clear they have something useful. The task now is making it profitable rather than building minimal functionality. Paying down R&D costs requires large scale, but they need to demonstrate an operating profit per vehicle first and much of that is just cleaning, maintenance, insurance and other hum-drum items.

Higher speed roads like freeways and snow are still a work in progress. They seem happy with performance in rain and dense fog, which is an improvement from last year. As far as tech goes, they're still early on the S-curve.

Highways are easy when you can ignore specific problems, which is why driver assist mechanisms often start there. They're more involved when the onboard electronics are expected to handle all situations, including the extremely infrequent events, that occur on a highway.

 

[Sunnyside]

I'm not certain it is logical to conclude whether a city is well served by public transit by the existence of urban rail alone.

By the parameters of this argument, Toronto is excellently served by public transit, seeing as they have subways, streetcars, and soon light rail. The fact that we only have 2 real subway lines and most of our streetcars get caught up in traffic so bad they can't seriously be considered a viable form of transport is not mentioned.

I know this isn’t the point of your post, but I think the expression that there’s ‘only two lines’ undersells/suggests something smaller than what the TTC subway is. It might be only two lines, but by length it’s comparable to some NA systems with 3-4+ lines. And, the TTC has 4 “spokes” to boot; Line 1 really does feel like two lines, and looking downtown, Line 2 helps create a de facto downtown loop. In any case, a good proportion of Toronto is well-served, especially the old city, but it is quite far from all.

Agree that “urban rail” is a poor metric however, because cities with short systems and/or bad service (let’s say Buffalo for the sake of argument) are not equivalent to Hamilton or Brampton where bus service vastly exceeds anything on metrorail.

 

[chrisw]

A video of the Vegas Loop. It's completely ridiculous how many employees they have and how low throughput it is.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1745257641281274109

 

[lenaitch]

^^Well that seems rather pointless but, in that sense, matches Las Vegas. The tube lights look pretty.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I recently bought a Model Y and did the TCO math. I was most surprised that insurance was nearly the same for a new Model Y as a 3-4 year old Mazda/Honda/Toyota CUV (this was my cross-shop). Between big incentives for new EV (I got 11k off MSRP between Tesla, federal government and my insurance company) and fuel cost differential and assumed terminal value after 10 years and finance cost, it was about the same on a per KM basis, to slightly favourable for EV. And now I am somewhat hedged against fuel costs. Carbon tax may go away, or it may stick around and escalate.

Good info. The Missus and I plan to reduce to a single car household in 4-5 years when she semi-retires, and we'll likely replace our two ICE cars for an EV car. But I don't know if Tesla has longterm legs, and I really don't want to be funding Musk's paranoia-conspiracy fueled megalomania. I am increasingly impressed with other entrants to the EV market, and am confident that in 5 years when we're shopping for a replacement vehicle that there will be some really interesting options.

Man, GM was dumb to drop the EV1. I like how they blame the government for their failings. In the end we may end up buying a Bolt. https://www.chevrolet.ca/en/electric/bolt-ev

 

[afransen]

Expressing doubt about whether Tesla will still be around and then at the same time thinking GM or new entrants will be stable companies that can provide good support for their vehicles is pretty wild. Have you been following GM's woes with the Blazer EV? GM has abandoned their goal of producing hundreds of thousands of EVs per year in the near future. Meanwhile Tesla will be putting a million Model Y on the road year in and year out. Ongoing parts support is not something I worry about, even if Tesla magically went bankrupt (a company with no debt, $20b on cash, and no legacy union burdens).

 

[kEiThZ]

I don't know if Tesla has longterm legs

The hysteria over the sales drop by the press is overwrought. Tesla sells now BEVs than anybody else. And do so at margins that would make premium automaker CEOs blush. They can adjust pricing and boost sales. And in the long run, they'll have newer and cheaper models that will boost sales.

I really don't want to be funding Musk's paranoia-conspiracy fueled megalomania.

This I agree with. I'm really turned off by his politics and the cult of personality around him. I love Rivian and RJ Scaringe precisely because they embody the values that Tesla and Musk purport to have. I'm hoping my current vehicle makes it till the R3 reaches the market.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The hysteria over the sales drop by the press is overwrought. Tesla sells now BEVs than anybody else. And do so at margins that would make premium automaker CEOs blush. They can adjust pricing and boost sales. And in the long run, they'll have newer and cheaper models that will boost sales.



This I agree with. I'm really turned off by his politics and the cult of personality around him. I love Rivian and RJ Scaringe precisely because they embody the values that Tesla and Musk purport to have. I'm hoping my current vehicle makes it till the R3 reaches the market.

I don’t think Tesla is going to crash into bankruptcy, goodness no, instead they’ll plateau into just another car company. But either way, IDC, I won’t put money into Elon’s pocket.

 

[Towered]

Good info. The Missus and I plan to reduce to a single car household in 4-5 years when she semi-retires, and we'll likely replace our two ICE cars for an EV car. But I don't know if Tesla has longterm legs, and I really don't want to be funding Musk's paranoia-conspiracy fueled megalomania. I am increasingly impressed with other entrants to the EV market, and am confident that in 5 years when we're shopping for a replacement vehicle that there will be some really interesting options.

Man, GM was dumb to drop the EV1. I like how they blame the government for their failings. In the end we may end up buying a Bolt. https://www.chevrolet.ca/en/electric/bolt-ev

I could have sworn that the Chevy Bolt was discontinued...

 

[Towered]

What's the buzz these days on Tesla competitors like Rivian and Vinfast? And what about EV's from established giants? I know VW for example is investing massively into them.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I could have sworn that the Chevy Bolt was discontinued...

The Bolt Is Back: GM Reverses Plans to Discontinue Its Top-Selling EV

GM will revamp the market's most affordable EV with its new Ultium battery platform.

www.pcmag.com

 

[afransen]

What's the buzz these days on Tesla competitors like Rivian and Vinfast? And what about EV's from established giants? I know VW for example is investing massively into them.

Rivian is burning cash at a prodigious rate. I give them 50/50 shot of making it to sustainable profitability. They are the best positioned of the Tesla-cloned, I'm pretty sure the rest will fizzle. Including Vinfast.

 

[Bojaxs]

I never understood the huge jump from ICE cars to fully electric. Toyota was right to focus on hybrids. A plug-in hybrid will give you 40 miles of electric range when charged to 100%. Not as much as an EV which probably gets well over 200 miles on a full charge. But I truly believe as Toyota continues to improve their battery technology within their hybrids, they'll be able to squeeze out more range out of their hybrid cars, and hybrid drivers will be using their engines less. Plus you'll never have range anxiety since you always have the engine to back you up.

People driving their plug-in hybrids on electric more than they drive them with their engines feels like a more "organic" shift towards electric vehicles vs all this government mandated nonsense that's trying to force people to purchase fully electric cars RIGHT NOW.

 

[afransen]

I never understood the huge jump from ICE cars to fully electric. Toyota was right to focus on hybrids. A plug-in hybrid will give you 40 miles of electric range when charged to 100%. Not as much as an EV which probably gets well over 200 miles on a full charge. But I truly believe as Toyota continues to improve their battery technology within their hybrids, they'll be able to squeeze out more range out of their hybrid cars, and hybrid drivers will be using their engines less. Plus you'll never have range anxiety since you always have the engine to back you up.

People driving their plug-in hybrids on electric more than they drive them with their engines feels like a more "organic" shift towards electric vehicles vs all this government mandated nonsense that's trying to force people to purchase fully electric cars RIGHT NOW.

Not to say that hybrids are a complete waste of time, when batteries are cheap enough, hybrids won't be appealing as the duplicative powertrains consume a lot of space and become a maintenance liability.

Also, PHEVs have the most wildly unrealistic fuel economy ratings. Real world use shows they use quite a lot more fuel than test cycles would suggest, particularly as users tend not to plug them in.

 

[crs1026]

For some of us, dispensing with the mechanical engine and its maintenance costs is one of the most attractive elements of the shift to EV's.
a vehicle that lets me make short trips without using gas seems attractive - until I add the cost of a rechargeable battery to the already greater cost of a hybrid. I simply don't spend enough on gas on short trips to justify that. If I am going to buy and maintain the gas engine and haul it around, I might as well use it.
However, range anxiety matters...imagine if all the eclipse watchers who will flock to Niagara needed a recharge to get home. My theory is that while EV is growing, the real tipping point won't happen until the storage and recharge aspects improve much further.

- Paul.