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The Coming Disruption of Transport
- Thread starter kEiThZ
- Start date
just east of the creek
Active Member
I love this conversation, especially after using a Bixie bike today to get to a meeting I’m downtown Montreal. The EA assured me that I would not be the first person to show up in a suit and a bicycle helmut. (Perhaps the same in Toronto, but not my experience yet)
Anyways. My take on EV’s. They make great urban vehicles, and if I still lived in the city I would be lining up to order a Fiat 500 EV (Could it come with a 6 speed stick?) As long as it cost less tha $30 grand. They (EV’s) are not so good in other applications. I have two friends who have dumped their popular brand of EV’s due to cold weather performance, after care issues, and the outrageous costs of repairs. They switched to hybrids. EV Pickup trucks are all show, or are suited for last mile usage. Tow anything, throw some hay bales in the back and watch your range shrink while connecting up the tow. We’re a diesel family (trucks/tractors etc) for obvious reasons, but if someone would build a hybrid F350 or perhaps a range of hydrogen powered agricultural equipment, that would be seriously looked at. The cost of equipment is so outrageously high that implementation might be slower than popular opinion would like, but honestly, the average cost of a combine harvester is creeping above $200,000. So we buy used regardless of fuel and carbon and think what’s more important - crop or carbon offsets?
It is a layered discussion for sure, and what works for some, is not so good for others. With the political landscape sure to change (most likely to change?) in the next election, I can see PP dumping some Liberal policies, which, depending on what hat I am wearing that day, i would favour, or find very short sited.
Anyways. My take on EV’s. They make great urban vehicles, and if I still lived in the city I would be lining up to order a Fiat 500 EV (Could it come with a 6 speed stick?) As long as it cost less tha $30 grand. They (EV’s) are not so good in other applications. I have two friends who have dumped their popular brand of EV’s due to cold weather performance, after care issues, and the outrageous costs of repairs. They switched to hybrids. EV Pickup trucks are all show, or are suited for last mile usage. Tow anything, throw some hay bales in the back and watch your range shrink while connecting up the tow. We’re a diesel family (trucks/tractors etc) for obvious reasons, but if someone would build a hybrid F350 or perhaps a range of hydrogen powered agricultural equipment, that would be seriously looked at. The cost of equipment is so outrageously high that implementation might be slower than popular opinion would like, but honestly, the average cost of a combine harvester is creeping above $200,000. So we buy used regardless of fuel and carbon and think what’s more important - crop or carbon offsets?
It is a layered discussion for sure, and what works for some, is not so good for others. With the political landscape sure to change (most likely to change?) in the next election, I can see PP dumping some Liberal policies, which, depending on what hat I am wearing that day, i would favour, or find very short sited.
afransen
Senior Member
No, it wouldn't be looked at. Hydrogen is substantially more opex than diesel. It makes zero sense. At least BEV has opex savings.
just east of the creek
Active Member
To be clear, you are referring to ‘daily’ operating expenses? It’s not something that we had looked at closely, surmising that the application of the tech had far to go and costs would be recalibrated with time. You are suggesting otherwise then.
Multifuel is often talked about but has its own carbon problems as you delve into details. So no clear cut answers.
afransen
Senior Member
Hydrogen is just a fantasy fuel. It takes 3 kwh of electricity to make 1 kwh at the wheel in a green hydrogen vehicle, plus a lot of very expensive infrastructure to chill, compress. distribute, and dispense into vehicles. There is not going to be a friendly neighbourhood hydrogen delivery man bringing liquified H2 to refuel tractors. We need to do a lot of work to decarbonize existing H2 production for chemical feedstocks. Perhaps in the fullness of time (30-50 years) green hydrogen will have matured enough to be competitive with both BEV and diesel/gasoline/kerosene, but that time will not be soon. Absent enormous subsidies for hydrogen fuel, it's not going to be commercially viable. BEV class 8 trucks are going to disrupt much of the diesel class 8 market over the next 5 years. And in 5 years, hydrogen will be as much of a fantasy as it is today.
Cost of hydrogen fuel is around USD $25/kg. 1 kg of hydrogen contains about 33.6 kwh of chemical energy, which can only be converted to electricity at 60-70% efficiency in a fuel cell, for about 23 kwh/kg of electrical energy. That's over $1/kwh. Diesel is about 37 kwh of chemical energy per gallon. At 30% efficiency that's around 12 kwh per gallon of electric-equivalent. At the US average price of diesel $3.60 per gallon, that's about $0.30/kwh equivalent. US average cost of electricity is $0.15/kwh. Clever fleet operators will be able to exploit off-peak power rates with stationary battery storage and charge for less than that.
The High Cost of Hydrogen Fuel Is a Drag on Adoption
Hydrogen fuel costs about $25 per kilogram, which is still too expensive for heavy-duty fleets to easily transition over to hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. The cost displaces advantages over other alternative technologies.
www.govtech.com
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afransen
Senior Member
Observers have been predicting that BEVs wouldn't take off for years. And yet sales continue to rise every year, and not by a little.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Aside from everything @afransen mentioned, one of the biggest problems with hydrogen? Nobody wants to build a fuel distribution network. But everybody gets electricity to their home. Which is why FCEVs aren't even a rounding error globally. Hydrogen may eventually becoming a heavy application fuel. But I can't imagine it will be easy to distribute it to farms.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
IMO, the whole point is to eliminate our personal cars. Ev's are just a way to do it. The higher incomes and elites will have their own cars (and charging points) and us common folk can use public transport.All that remains is a cashless society, digital ID's and state governed food supply so the state can control every aspect of your life.
afransen
Senior Member
When did you drink that koolaid?
Besides, I find this argument baffling. EVs, the only powertrain you can power yourself in full hermit mode with some solar panels on your roof, is the technology that the global elites will use to control the prols, and not the fuel that lies at the end of an elaborate supply chain of pumps and pipelines etc and flows through a handful of $10B refineries?
MrGoose
Active Member
If you really want personal freedom when travelling, a car (which costs thousands, a VIN attached to your name, a license attached to your name, insurance attached to your name) is not the way to do it.
Bikes, scooters, skateboards bypass all of that.
Bikes are the most liberating form of transportation.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
True, though my motorcycle is a close second. The latter needs gas of course, as EV motorcycles for anything but short range rides (my average daily ride is 250-400 km) are a decade away or more. As for the bicycle, I agree. Interestingly, in Asian countries where once everyone rode a bicycle now everyone rides a scooter, gas or electric.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Just pulling our legs.... but I do think we're going to see a divide between those who have private parking for their EV and those who must depend on municipal charging stations.
MisterF
Senior Member
Even in 30-50 years I don't see it happening for hydrogen. A big part of reducing costs is scale. Hydrogen lacks that completely and isn't going to have it for personal transportation in the foreseeable future. Batteries have scale in spades, with millions of EVs now being produced every year and huge money is going into increasing scale and researching new tech. Any advantage that hydrogen cars might develop in the future will be far exceeded in EVs.Hydrogen is just a fantasy fuel. It takes 3 kwh of electricity to make 1 kwh at the wheel in a green hydrogen vehicle, plus a lot of very expensive infrastructure to chill, compress. distribute, and dispense into vehicles. There is not going to be a friendly neighbourhood hydrogen delivery man bringing liquified H2 to refuel tractors. We need to do a lot of work to decarbonize existing H2 production for chemical feedstocks. Perhaps in the fullness of time (30-50 years) green hydrogen will have matured enough to be competitive with both BEV and diesel/gasoline/kerosene, but that time will not be soon. Absent enormous subsidies for hydrogen fuel, it's not going to be commercially viable. BEV class 8 trucks are going to disrupt much of the diesel class 8 market over the next 5 years. And in 5 years, hydrogen will be as much of a fantasy as it is today.
Cost of hydrogen fuel is around USD $25/kg. 1 kg of hydrogen contains about 33.6 kwh of chemical energy, which can only be converted to electricity at 60-70% efficiency in a fuel cell, for about 23 kwh/kg of electrical energy. That's over $1/kwh. Diesel is about 37 kwh of chemical energy per gallon. At 30% efficiency that's around 12 kwh per gallon of electric-equivalent. At the US average price of diesel $3.60 per gallon, that's about $0.30/kwh equivalent. US average cost of electricity is $0.15/kwh. Clever fleet operators will be able to exploit off-peak power rates with stationary battery storage and charge for less than that.
The High Cost of Hydrogen Fuel Is a Drag on Adoption
Hydrogen fuel costs about $25 per kilogram, which is still too expensive for heavy-duty fleets to easily transition over to hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. The cost displaces advantages over other alternative technologies.
just east of the creek
Active Member
Case has a BEV utility farm tractor being delivered starting this year. Rated at 75 hp, this would trend to the the upper end of the scale for a utility. With a claimed run time of 4 hours, fast charging options, and autonomous run options, it is intriguing. No real world reviews that I am aware of as yet. And then scaling that advertised capability up to combine or a much more powerful tractor (say hp in the 400 range) with longer endurance levels is something that needs to be accomplished.Hydrogen is just a fantasy fuel. It takes 3 kwh of electricity to make 1 kwh at the wheel in a green hydrogen vehicle, plus a lot of very expensive infrastructure to chill, compress. distribute, and dispense into vehicles. There is not going to be a friendly neighbourhood hydrogen delivery man bringing liquified H2 to refuel tractors. We need to do a lot of work to decarbonize existing H2 production for chemical feedstocks. Perhaps in the fullness of time (30-50 years) green hydrogen will have matured enough to be competitive with both BEV and diesel/gasoline/kerosene, but that time will not be soon. Absent enormous subsidies for hydrogen fuel, it's not going to be commercially viable. BEV class 8 trucks are going to disrupt much of the diesel class 8 market over the next 5 years. And in 5 years, hydrogen will be as much of a fantasy as it is today.
Cost of hydrogen fuel is around USD $25/kg. 1 kg of hydrogen contains about 33.6 kwh of chemical energy, which can only be converted to electricity at 60-70% efficiency in a fuel cell, for about 23 kwh/kg of electrical energy. That's over $1/kwh. Diesel is about 37 kwh of chemical energy per gallon. At 30% efficiency that's around 12 kwh per gallon of electric-equivalent. At the US average price of diesel $3.60 per gallon, that's about $0.30/kwh equivalent. US average cost of electricity is $0.15/kwh. Clever fleet operators will be able to exploit off-peak power rates with stationary battery storage and charge for less than that.
The High Cost of Hydrogen Fuel Is a Drag on Adoption
Hydrogen fuel costs about $25 per kilogram, which is still too expensive for heavy-duty fleets to easily transition over to hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. The cost displaces advantages over other alternative technologies.
Your comments on hydrogen appreciated. (I have been following Ballad for years, hence the interest)
I would add a question, and that is the carbon 'cost' of upscaling power production and the supporting utilities and grid to support a heavily EV based economy. There are a lot of studies and forecasts out there that assume many things will happen (mass adaptation of heat pumps for instance) that will lower some costs, offsetting others, and even justifying mass lithium open pit mining as a trade off to gas and oil fields. Well yes, maybe, but really? This is really a far too general question to answer here in detail, but at some point the real world costs will start to be quantified.
afransen
Senior Member
The greener the grid, the greener the buildout of additional grid infra. That said, even solar PV manufactured using China's coal-heavy grid have a very low g CO2/kwh, around 40g, with a carbon payback in the range of 6 months.
One thing a lot of people get wrong is that the look at global primary energy consumption, and assume we have to replace all of that with renewable electricity TWH. This is just wrong, as most of that energy consumption is in the form of heat, which is subsequently wasted. And there are strategies for renewable heat that are lower cost than renewable electricity. We only really need to replace about 30% of primary energy consumption with renewables, and a lot of that can be thermal energy capture and thermal storage (as opposed to batteries).
And there is no shortage of lithium--it is highly abundant. Chemical battery chemistries are evolving to those that are as common as rocks. Sodium instead of lithium, aluminum instead of copper conductors, etc.
One thing a lot of people get wrong is that the look at global primary energy consumption, and assume we have to replace all of that with renewable electricity TWH. This is just wrong, as most of that energy consumption is in the form of heat, which is subsequently wasted. And there are strategies for renewable heat that are lower cost than renewable electricity. We only really need to replace about 30% of primary energy consumption with renewables, and a lot of that can be thermal energy capture and thermal storage (as opposed to batteries).
And there is no shortage of lithium--it is highly abundant. Chemical battery chemistries are evolving to those that are as common as rocks. Sodium instead of lithium, aluminum instead of copper conductors, etc.