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Rob Ford's Toronto

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MetroMan said:
The Chief has grown concerned about the optics of Ford not yet being charged. I think he's putting out more public information so that people know that the investigation is ongoing.

I recently heard that they made a break in the case and that was followed a couple of days later by the revelation that Lisi has been meeting with Ford. This and other information has lead me to believe that Lisi may in fact be working with the investigation and the reason for the recent breakthrough.
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Maybe the TPS has been able to offer Lisi the one thing the Fords can't EVER deliver...?
 
Johnny Au said:
Thank you blackballed for the Excel file.

Here is the quartic regression of the UT comments chart:

y = 1[SUB]E[/SUB]-7x[SUP]4[/SUP] - 0.0228x[SUP]3[/SUP] + 1399.9x[SUP]2[/SUP] - 4[SUB]E[/SUB]7x + 4[SUB]E[/SUB]11
R² = 0.98845
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*Completely* pointless regression. Why not use a 40th order polynomial? It'll be a perfect fit! This is quite literally meaningless.
 
Huge Seagull said:
True. And yet, Ford apparently felt it necessary to issue a veiled warning to Sandro, along the lines of "I don't throw my friends under the bus."
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Indeed. I was going to say as much myself. Lisi knows the Fords, and likely knows they are not people you easily cross. 'Betraying' them would involve some very real danger, methinks.
 
pattycakes said:
Okay the marc, I'll bite, is it bigger than a breadbox?
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I'm pretty sure that the TPS and Attorney General would have considerable sway in assisting someone in having a full pardon granted... way more pull than the Fords paying a lawyer to accomplish the same task. Best protection to provide someone (Lisi) who would be in jail is for them not to be there in the first place...
 
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themarc said:
I'm pretty sure that the TPS and Attorney General would have considerable sway in assisting someone in having a full pardon granted... way more pull than the Fords paying a lawyer to accomplish the same task. Best protection to provide someone (Lisi) who would be in jail is for them not to be there in the first place...
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Witness protection? I wouldn't want to be Lisi, in a jail, or out on the mean streets of Etobicoke, if I crossed the Ford family.
 
Johnny Au said:
We can predict how many posts this thread has in a few months (if we exclude October 2014 and any month that has Rob Ford being criminally charged).
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You've completely missed my point. You had to go to a 4th order polynomial to get a regression with a decent fit. Look at your own graph, the curve constantly changes (gasp - 3 times! polynomial 101!). Try getting rid of that third upswing in the data and then calculating a 3rd order regression on the truncated data set, then projecting the future using the regression. You'll see that your model has no predictive qualities, you'll be off by a million miles. Now think what adding one more 'point' is going to change? Absolutely nothing.

Linear regression works well, do a quadratic if the data looks exponential, but once you start getting into 3rd and 4th order regressions without knowing exactly what the hell you are doing and why, it's just stupid. Learn to math, friend!

edit: I don't mean to be rude, after having this stuff drilled into my head for years it pains me to see bad math. And using higher-order polynomials just so your model fits past data better with the benefits of hindsight is just bad math. The cumulative data looks exponential, use a quadratic and call it a day if you want to be genuine. But it will still be a bad model because Rob Ford and the news cycle isn't predictable.
 
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I often find myself going back over these words, written by Enzo Di Matteo back in early-December.

Maybe the police held off busting Ford because they figure Lisi will help them build a case against him to save his own neck. He may, but it seems unlikely; some of the mayor’s former staffers have described Lisi’s relationship with the mayor as bordering on bro love.
Out Etobicoke way, former high school friends from the Ford neighbourhood tell a different story. They say Ford was just another of Lisi’s targets, someone he probably plied with free coke to get him hooked. To hear them tell it, Lisi has a bucket list of people he wants to screw.
How that may have turned into a conspiracy to commit an indictable offense – to wit, the hot pursuit of the crack video – is anybody’s guess. The tricky part for police is making the case when those involved may not talk.
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(Emphasis mine)

I don't claim to know what this all means (or if it means anything), but the ITO makes it obvious that this is not your garden variety dealer-user relationship.
 
Maybe this has something to do with the "on going investigation":

Stephanie MacLellan ‏@smaclellan 1m
.@robyndoolittle and Kevin Donovan got death threats this summer. This is for real. #CrazyTown #TOpoli
 
themarc said:
Maybe this has something to do with the "on going investigation":

Stephanie MacLellan ‏@smaclellan 1m
.@robyndoolittle and Kevin Donovan got death threats this summer. This is for real. #CrazyTown #TOpoli
Click to expand...

I'm surprised that nothing like this (with respect to a Star reporter) has come to light before now. You have to assume if you cross the Fords, you'd better start worrying about your teeth, legs, or even life.
 
euler said:
You've completely missed my point. You had to go to a 4th order polynomial to get a regression with a decent fit. Look at your own graph, the curve constantly changes (gasp - 3 times! polynomial 101!). Try getting rid of that third upswing in the data and then calculating a 3rd order regression on the truncated data set, then projecting the future using the regression. You'll see that your model has no predictive qualities, you'll be off by a million miles. Now think what adding one more 'point' is going to change? Absolutely nothing.

Linear regression works well, do a quadratic if the data looks exponential, but once you start getting into 3rd and 4th order regressions without knowing exactly what the [censored] you are doing and why, it's just stupid. Learn to math, friend!

edit: I don't mean to be rude, after having this stuff drilled into my head for years it pains me to see bad math. And using higher-order polynomials just so your model fits past data better with the benefits of hindsight is just bad math. The cumulative data looks exponential, use a quadratic and call it a day if you want to be genuine. But it will still be a bad model because Rob Ford and the news cycle isn't predictable.
Click to expand...
I will scrap the regression model then.

blackballed, please e-mail me the Excel file at the start of every month (with data ending at the end of the previous month). This way, we can keep a record of changes. Why so? This way, you only need to send me the file 12 times a year (and there is no use to doing it more often).
 
Crazy said:
I'm surprised that nothing like this (with respect to a Star reporter) has come to light before now. You have to assume if you cross the Fords, you'd better start worrying about your teeth, legs, or even life.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't read too much into it. Ford nation is strong with their loyalty, I wouldn't put a few death threats beyond them.
 
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