Just like Don Getty, Ralph Klein, Ed Stelmach, Alison Redford, Leslie Frost, John Robarts, Bill Davis,
All of those would be "the next in line" of serious party dynasties. In Ontario from 1943 to 1985 and in Alberta from 1971 to today there really was/is a sense that the Ikea Monkey could be declared leader and get elected.......I guess Frank Miller showed that he was less competent than the Ikea Monkey
Louis St. Laurent, Pierre Trudeau, Kathy Dunderdale....
Exceptions are needed to prove rules
Of course, there's Paul Martin, Bernard Landry, Ernie Eves, Kim Campbell, John Turner, Ujjal Dosanjh.
Outside of those political dynasties (which I would suggest are a thing of the past) there is a longer list of people who fail in their first election after being appointed than do well. It is likely a result that leaders seem today to stay in office until they are unpopular and the "next guy" (and the party) get tarnished with the unpopularity of the previous guy.
I'd say there isn't a generality to this. I'm hoping, for example, that Wynne will join the former group rather than the latter. (Because Dim Tim Teabag is pretty crazy right-wing.)
I think there is a generality to it (with odd exceptions) and I also think that it is something that any premier-designate has to consider in his/her initial term in office. That is why I suggested that bold leadership and bold moves are required. It is interesting to me that her first words are around the transit file and the need to raise revenue through things like taxes and tolls to fund future investment. These are, hardly, the kind of moves that get someone re-elected.......let's say she was successful in getting a bit of momentum around the subject....so we get some kind of increased gas tax and tolling on, say, the Gardiner and the DVP and those monies are targeted at the DRL. By the time the next election rolls around all the electorate would see is an increase in their cost of living but the benefits of that will still be years in the distance. The long term nature of transit initiatives are likely the reason that few (any?) politicians have made it their "hill to die on" at election times.
I like that the premier-designate has made transit/gridlock "job one" but it hardly seems the path for someone taking over from a (now) unpopular guy to get elected when she (at some time) takes us to the polls. It will win her votes from the UrbanToronto readers but not sure many others will be impressed. I think the general public would view it as she raised taxes and we have nothing for it (keep in mind, using the example I gave, there would probably not be a shovel in the ground before you go to the public).
I did, however, through my MPP offer a bit of a suggestion if Ms Wynne was going to make transit/gridlock the defining issue of her new office. If Ms Wynne were to direct/order/command GO/Metrolinx to maximize the investment going into the GO Kitchener Corridor by having frequent all day 7 day two way service on the day of opening (2015)
and, along with that, have new stations at Black Creek/Eglinton and Liberty Village
and announce that riders on that line boarding and leaving within the 416 could ride those trains at TTC prices.....she could, quite legitimately, declare that she had found an intermediate, and immediate (by transit terms) relief line while she worked on the bigger transit file. Since the vast majority of the funds needed for that plan have already been allocated/spent she could also show that she found this "relief line" within current budgets, without new tax measures and in a fiscally responsible fashion.
By the time she went to the polls she would have something that showed benefit before cost as opposed to what the bigger transit file would do to her political message.
