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Rob Ford's Toronto

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Saturday: Don Bosco wins Metro Bowl
Sunday: Argos win Grey Cup
Monday: Rob Ford remains Mayor of Toronto
Tuesday: Rob and Doug have a big party
Wednesday: Rob pitches his re-election campaign
Thursday: Rob reminds public that he will get money for subways
Friday: Rob sleeps like a baby


Could be a magical week for the Mayor :rolleyes:

Monday: It was all a dream! Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday never happened!

[video=youtube;UvinAPPfyAQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvinAPPfyAQ[/video]
 
A quick recap from my perspective:

1 - Ford undeniably broke the law. In short, he forgave himself from paying $3,150, hence he financially benefitted. His defence lies in the exceptions to this law.
2 - His ignorance defence was clearly fabricated because he's correctly declared a conflict of interest many times in his decade at City Hall. This will not sit well with the judge.
3 - As to the "Insignificant amount" defence, had Ford never resorted to playing ignorant, then perhaps the judge would have used the relatively small amount of money -- in the context of Ford's net worth -- to find him guilty but not subject to the mandatory removal from office penalty. Also, Ford made it clear that this was a significant amount to him by declining so adamantly to pay it, and lamenting that he would have to pay it out of his own pocket.

My prediction is that Ford will be found guilty and that the judge will have no choice but to sentence him to removal from office. I expect Justice Hackland to concede that the penalty is harsh but then to go into some detail about how he is not there to rewrite the law but to follow it. I also expect there to be a severe lecture given to Ford for being or playing ignorant. If the latter, he deserves the punishment he's getting. If the former, then he's not qualified for the office he holds.

However, if found guilty, Ford may appeal to a panel of judges that would review Hackland's judgement. Their verdict would be final. This will probably not be over on Monday, although with a guilty verdict, it's possible that City Council could ask for him to step down while the appeals process goes on.
 
Is there any chance that the sentence will be reduced to simply barring him from running in the next election? I think that's the fairest form of punishment.
 
no the fairest form of punishment would be removal from office as RF's priorities is not the job of being mayor, but football coach to Don Bosco's, clearly demonstrated the past week when his presence in court for the libel trial was less important than a football game.

he's used city resources and personel for the players;
pressure city workers/management and jumped the queue so his company can get work done on private property
 
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Is there any chance that the sentence will be reduced to simply barring him from running in the next election? I think that's the fairest form of punishment.

No. The judge has no descrertion on the minimum penalty -- removal from office. He only has descrertion in applying further penalties such as barring from running for office for up to 7 years and financial penalties.

I don't agree entirely with Goldsbie. I think Ford would be wise to accept removal from office and then run in the by election. This would be his best and probably only shot at staying in office and if re-elected, he'd have a solid mandate. No other candidate has the organization to run against him unless...

...We may see a surprise comeback from the previous election's candidates.

Smitherman's popularity has declined due to the Liberal scandals but Joe Pants, Rocco Rossi or Sarah Thomson could all restart their campaigns on relatively short notice. Ford would still have the best shot although there is a couple of factors that could work against him:

1 - The gravy train claims have not been demonstrated and in practice Ford has not been able to cut expenses without cutting services.
2 - Ford is no longer the outsider or an unknown. People know him now and many of his former voters aren't happy with what they see.
3 - Public opinion is unlikely to question a judge's sentence. In fact, hyperbole is likely to set in. If Ford was kicked out of office, he "must have done something really bad. Maybe it's related to him using city resources for his own personal use. Ford was found guilty! He's corrupt!"

Accepting a quick judgement and running in a by-election is Ford's only shot but not a very good one.
 
Deputy Mayor Doug Holyday foresees a by-election if Mayor Rob Ford removed by judge

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/art...y-election-if-mayor-rob-ford-removed-by-judge


David Rider
Urban Affairs Bureau Chief



Deputy Mayor Holyday favours a $7 million by-election to choose a new mayor if a judge turfs Rob Ford from office and council is set to appoint a non-conservative as his replacement.

Holyday also told reporters Friday that, while he strongly supports the mayor and his penny-pinching agenda, Ford must stop opening himself up to political attacks because “it can’t go on this way.â€

The veteran councillor and former Etobicoke mayor said he is very confident that, even if Justice Charles Hackland finds Ford guilty of conflict of interest in a ruling to be released Monday at 10 a.m., the judge will not remove him from office.

But if Ford is turfed, Holyday said it is his expectation that he would assume the mayor’s duties until council decides what to do next. That could be as early as Tuesday, when council has a regularly scheduled meeting.

There is no modern precedent for a judge removing a Toronto mayor from office. Midway through Ford’s four-year term, it appears council would have the discretion to either appoint one of their own as a caretaker mayor or trigger a city-wide mayoral by-election.

City elections officials say any city-wide vote costs $7 million to hold.

Holyday said there is a “distinct possibility†opponents of the administration’s drive to slash spending and outsource city jobs would try to appoint a caretaker mayor who would sabotage the fiscally conservative agenda that got Ford elected in 2010.

“I’m not willing to support someone who’s going to change the agenda, and if that … appeared to be the option that was going to succeed, I’d want to have an election,†Holyday said.

“I know that’s a costly matter, but I think the public has spoken and I think the public are quite in agreement with the agenda that Rob Ford has put forward.â€

Ford is in hot water for speaking and voting on an item at a February council meeting that absolved him of the need to repay $3,150 to lobbyists from whom he improperly solicited donations for his private football foundation.

Lawyer Clayton Ruby argued in court that Ford broke the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act. Ford’s lawyer vehemently denied that’s the case. If the judge finds Ford guilty, he has three options: levy no punishment; remove him from office; or remove him from office and ban him from seeking re-election for up to seven years.

Holyday expressed frustration with the mayor for his “unorthodox†style that opens the door for political enemies to attack him.

“All this aggravation and cost and inconvenience only could come about because (Ford) stayed in there and voted on the matter, rightly or wrongly,†Holyday said, adding he advises Ford to “quit leading with your chin.â€

“I just wish he would do things in a more usual manner that wouldn’t open the door for so much criticism and for people to attack him,†Holyday said, noting as an example that he has unsuccessfully urged Ford to get a driver.

“I hope he has learned that you can’t open yourself up to these situations, because it’s just too much of a drain on you personally, it’s a drain on you financially, it’s a drain n your family — and I suggest it’s a drain on council.

“It can’t go on this way.â€
 
The most 'fair' and non-partisan judgement, and quite frankly one that will maintain some sort of order:

- Let Ford stay on as mayor
- Order him to pay back the donations
- Ban him from the next election

And higlight that the only reason he wasn't outsted was because the judge believes he has a city to run.

If you ban him from being re-elected, you essentially take away all his powers - he'll be like his predecessor Miller and seen as a lame-duck figure.

I'm sure the councillors will be chatting each other up to see who the next Mayor will be....

I would be suprised if the judge allows him to remain with no implications to his current/future elected status.

Will see.

As much as the far left would enjoy seing him ousted, it would be a bit of a gong show with an interm election that will last for 2 years... 7 Million dollars can fund a lot of library hours and swimming pools
 
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The most 'fair' and non-partisan judgement, and quite frankly one that will maintain some sort of order:

- Let Ford stay on as mayor
- Order him to pay back the donations
- Ban him from the next election

The judge doesn't re-write the law. He interprets it and hands one of the sentences available to him. In this case the minimum sentence, if found guilty, is removal from office. It's not left wing or right wing. It's the law. If the law is too harsh, then it could be changed in the future, not retroactively.

The judge must find ford either Guilty or Not Guilty. If guilty, removal from office is automatic. He can append other sentences like barring Ford from running for office for up to 7 years and financial penalties. He can't sentence him to these appending penalties and not the removal from office.

If he finds him not guilty, he will have to explain in his judgement why and I can't see any logical reason how your explain that Ford is not guilty of a conflict of interest after he clearly broke the rules and benefitted financially. I think the odds are severely against Ford. Besides eager to see Ford ousted and this city returnd to adults to run, I'm also very curious to see how the judge will rule because I concede that the sentence is too harsh. But the law doesn't give him much wiggle room.

Ford's only safe exit is if he is found Not Guilty. But is he? It would be a shame to completely let him off the hook but that's the judges only option if he wants to avoid unseating the Mayor.
 
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Now that everyone is writing screenplays here is another possibility.
Ford is found guilty and loses his position as Mayor triggering a bye-election.

A bye-election is called and Ford is the only entry winning by acclamation, not so crazy. Who is going to cost the City $7,000,000 to see his or her name in the papers as losing in a landslide to Ford which is what the result would be. Never mind the campaign cost, no one needs to be pointed at in the street as the idiot whose unbridled chutzpah cost the City all that money.

Smitherman, Thompson, Pantalone etc are aware of the polling power Ford commands and won't commit suicide again.

If you think Ford can be beaten and all you have to do is show up on the ballot then do it.
 
...We may see a surprise comeback from the previous election's candidates.

Smitherman's popularity has declined due to the Liberal scandals but Joe Pants, Rocco Rossi or Sarah Thomson could all restart their campaigns on relatively short notice.

Uh...*not* them. Not *them*.

OTOH, I wouldn't be surprised if someone from Ford's own camp--y'know, like, Thompson rather than Thomson--ran against Ford and basically deposed him from within, so to speak...
 
I commented on Ford's appeals process and said that a panel of judges would be Ford's only appeals avenue. While I was correct, I was in error stating that he could drag this on until well into next year. If found guilty on Monday, his chair will be vacated effective immediately. Ford can appeal but he will be out of office until that appeal goes through. He can ask for a stay of the sentence but it is not likely that it would be granted because the city can continue to function without him.

As much as I disagree with Fords direction for the city, I consent that this is what Toronto voted for so I'd like for Doug Holyday to be the caretaker Mayor until the next regularly scheduled election. He'd carry on the right wing mandate without all this circus and he's qualified because he's already been Mayor (of Etobicoke) and is a veteran municipal politician. I think council -- even those on the left -- can agree to having Holyday as Mayor. I hope we dont see an attempt by the left for a coup. Their chance will come in October 2014, not a day earlier.
 
I'm most comfortable with a caretaker rather than an election as well, and Holyday isn't a bad choice, though he's a little too ideological. But he isn't offensive, and a lot more intelligent. I'd also be happy with John Parker, who's on the right, but also a nice guy, and far, far better a council chair than the nasty speaker Frances Nunziata. What about a centrist, like Josh Colle or Raymond Cho?
 
The most 'fair' and non-partisan judgement, and quite frankly one that will maintain some sort of order:

- Let Ford stay on as mayor
- Order him to pay back the donations
- Ban him from the next election

And higlight that the only reason he wasn't outsted was because the judge believes he has a city to run.

If you ban him from being re-elected, you essentially take away all his powers - he'll be like his predecessor Miller and seen as a lame-duck figure.

I'm sure the councillors will be chatting each other up to see who the next Mayor will be....

I would be suprised if the judge allows him to remain with no implications to his current/future elected status.

Will see.

As much as the far left would enjoy seing him ousted, it would be a bit of a gong show with an interm election that will last for 2 years... 7 Million dollars can fund a lot of library hours and swimming pools

Exactly my opinion- Ford would win the opinion battle if he were ousted- no matter how pure the motives of the complaint, it will always be seen by a portion of the populace as being leftist vindictiveness and being a 'sore-loser'. By barring him from running, it officially forces him into the role of a lame-duck mayor (if he wasn't already) and allows him to more gradually fade from the spotlight, hopefully for good.

Does anyone know how exactly things will play out if Ford is ousted? Do we need a pure majority-wins vote to appoint a caretaker? Or is it more complex?
 
As much as I disagree with Fords direction for the city, I consent that this is what Toronto voted for so I'd like for Doug Holyday to be the caretaker Mayor until the next regularly scheduled election. He'd carry on the right wing mandate without all this circus and he's qualified because he's already been Mayor (of Etobicoke) and is a veteran municipal politician. I think council -- even those on the left -- can agree to having Holyday as Mayor. I hope we dont see an attempt by the left for a coup. Their chance will come in October 2014, not a day earlier.

I agree completely. I hate Ford more than most, but for the sake of long-term political optics I'd be disappointed in anything other than Holyday as caretaker.
 
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