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Rob Ford's Toronto

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I'm somewhat skeptical of Chow polling numbers being solid or holding, since she has not started an actual campaign yet and most people don't know much about her at this point, it may just be name recognition.
 
Voltz said:
I'm somewhat skeptical of Chow polling numbers being solid or holding, since she has not started an actual campaign yet and most people don't know much about her at this point, it may just be name recognition.
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I am skeptical also. Most people know next to nothing about Chow other than the fact that she is Jack Layton's widow for which she gets a lot of sympathy from people of all political stripes. Should she decide to run against Ford next year all of that will change the minute she steps into the arena. She won't be able to milk the sympathy vote anymore (although I'm sure she will try!). Once people get to know Chow a bit better her poll numbers will plummet.
 
MetroMan said:
Final thought: with Stintz now out and if John Tory does the same, I think Ford is beyond toast. Chow is scoring above 50% in polls with Ford never breaking into the mid 30's.
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This week in a Toronto Star poll measuring popularity - almost 50% had a favorable opinion of Rob Ford ! The poll was taken before Ford's huge Subway victory. Another thing to keep in mind about Rob Ford's poll numbers is that they are solid. His support is hard-core as we were reminded last week by the phenomenal turn-out at Ford Fest West. You won't ever see hundreds of people lining up to get their picture taken with Olivia Chow!

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_ha...ity_climbs_to_nearly_half_in_latest_poll.html
 
Peepers said:
This week in a Toronto Star poll measuring popularity - almost 50% had a favorable opinion of Rob Ford ! The poll was taken before Ford's huge Subway victory. Another thing to keep in mind about Rob Ford's poll numbers is that they are solid. His support is hard-core as we were reminded last week by the phenomenal turn-out at Ford Fest West. You won't ever see hundreds of people lining up to get their picture taken with Olivia Chow!

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_ha...ity_climbs_to_nearly_half_in_latest_poll.html
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49%, or 50% for that matter, are not majority numbers, and as such, popularity, and the vote would still depend of making "coalition" deals.

Just because people show up for free food, alcohol, and entertainment, does not automatically mean they are Ford supporters.
 
Voltz said:
I'm somewhat skeptical of Chow polling numbers being solid or holding, since she has not started an actual campaign yet and most people don't know much about her at this point, it may just be name recognition.
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Then again, those are numbers vs someone who *is* conducting an actual campaign. So if that actual incumbent campaign is still miring you in distant second, then...
 
Peepers said:
This week in a Toronto Star poll measuring popularity - almost 50% had a favorable opinion of Rob Ford ! The poll was taken before Ford's huge Subway victory. Another thing to keep in mind about Rob Ford's poll numbers is that they are solid. His support is hard-core as we were reminded last week by the phenomenal turn-out at Ford Fest West. You won't ever see hundreds of people lining up to get their picture taken with Olivia Chow!

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_ha...ity_climbs_to_nearly_half_in_latest_poll.html
Click to expand...

Though note that he was still in 40s approval-rating-wise when in low 30s vs Chow...
 
Good for Karen Stintz. Besides realizing that she likely won't be able to win with both Ford and Chow running, she likely also feels that under Chow there would be much more likelihood of compromise and coalition building. Chow is also a huge proponent of building more public transit which would fit in well with Stintz's goals.

Stintz might even be a good choice for deputy mayor as a symbol to the rest of the city that Chow hopefully intends to be more moderate than her left-wing roots might suggest.
 
I can already hear the Ford talking points against Chow:

- "She has never run a business"
- "She has no executive experience" (how did that work on Obama in 08?)
- "She is a pro-LRT, pro-bike radical"
- "She is staunchly ideological and a non-consensus builder
- "Anti-business with connections to radical anti-development groups" (Porter Airlines)
- "Lived in subsidized housing in the 80s" (long squashed myth)
 
mjl08 said:
I can already hear the Ford talking points against Chow:

- "She has never run a business"
- "She has no executive experience" (how did that work on Obama in 08?)
- "She is a pro-LRT, pro-bike radical"
- "She is staunchly ideological and a non-consensus builder
- "Anti-business with connections to radical anti-development groups" (Porter Airlines)
- "Lived in subsidized housing in the 80s" (long squashed myth)
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Too many big words. The talking points will begin and end with "Tax and spend socialist" and "The left want the government to control your lives."
 
We all just know that Rob is going to put his foot in his mouth when attacking a female opponent -- specially when she's beating him in the polls and he starts to get desperate. He's going to end up dismissing whatever remaining female voters he still has on his side.
 
MetroMan said:
BREAKING: I heard today from a well placed City Hall source that Karen Stintz will defer to Olivia Chow and will not run for Mayor. Her goal is to see Ford taken out and understands that a one on one Chow vs Ford election is the best chance at guaranteeing that Rob Ford is removed from office. She probably also sees that she has little chance of beating Olivia Chow as long as Ford is also in the race.
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So I guess her scarborough subway vote grabbing stunt was for nothing.
 
MetroMan said:
We all just know that Rob is going to put his foot in his mouth when attacking a female opponent -- specially when she's beating him in the polls and he starts to get desperate. He's going to end up dismissing whatever remaining female voters he still has on his side.
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Not just a female, but an oriental female. They're taking over!
 
salsa said:
So I guess her scarborough subway vote grabbing stunt was for nothing.
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I think what happened was she was aiming to grab the official Conservative flag barer title when it looked like Rob Ford would be abandoned and left to run without their support. When he survived Crackgate and the Conservatives started to take him back in, Stintz reassessed where she wants to be next term and it was either Councillor under Mayor Ford or Councillor under Mayor Chow or unemployed civilian.

I'm pretty sure she's even going to come out early on and endorse Olivia Chow along with a slew of other right and centre councillors, with the argument that they think they can work with her unlike Rob Ford who's been an obstruction holding back City business. John Parker and Michael Thompson could be early supporters and I can see Denzil Minnan-Wong and even Mammolitti endorsing Chow later in the campaign if it becomes clear that their former boss is toast.
 
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