afransen
Senior Member
I'm pretty sure any gains on the 401 would be offset by growth and latent demand in the mean time.
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Roads: Ontario/GTA Highways Discussion
- Thread starter Haljackey
- Start date
T-Bor
Active Member
Of course. But this growth in population and related vehicles on the road will occur with or without additional highways built.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
The same study I linked specifically identifies that the 401 at Hurontario would go from 13,005 vehicles at PM Peak hour (a capacity of 99%) without the 413 to 11,788 vehicles at PM peak hour, a capacity of 89%.
So the 413 would divert about 1,200 vehicles from the central 401 vs. without it. About a 9% reduction in volume.
the same study identified a freeway lane as having a capacity of 2,200 vehicles an hour. So it diverts the equivalent of 1/2 of a vehicle lane of capacity. Not much.
Which is why it's often far better and more efficient to widen existing corridors. adding one through-lane to the 401 would have more congestion relief on the 401 corridor than the 413 would.
So the 413 would divert about 1,200 vehicles from the central 401 vs. without it. About a 9% reduction in volume.
the same study identified a freeway lane as having a capacity of 2,200 vehicles an hour. So it diverts the equivalent of 1/2 of a vehicle lane of capacity. Not much.
Which is why it's often far better and more efficient to widen existing corridors. adding one through-lane to the 401 would have more congestion relief on the 401 corridor than the 413 would.
T-Bor
Active Member
Legit question - how far out in time do these studies go?
I just conceptually find it hard to believe that 30/40/50 years from now, with Brampton/Caledon/Mississauga continuing to expand outwards, having another highway (413) isn't going to make a major difference in travel time
innsertnamehere
Superstar
The study is from 2013 and studied at a 2031 time frame.
Obviously the further out you go, the worse it would become.
My understanding is that the province has updated projections to 2041 which show worse traffic again, but still better with the 413 than without it. These projections are not publicly available however.
it's the reason that the province is looking at the 401 tunnel now. Even with the 413, with the amount of growth the GTA is experiencing, the traffic relief the 413 provides only last a few years until everything is congested again.
Obviously the further out you go, the worse it would become.
My understanding is that the province has updated projections to 2041 which show worse traffic again, but still better with the 413 than without it. These projections are not publicly available however.
it's the reason that the province is looking at the 401 tunnel now. Even with the 413, with the amount of growth the GTA is experiencing, the traffic relief the 413 provides only last a few years until everything is congested again.
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Undead
Senior Member
No, this is a policy choice that can (and must) be undone with a stroke of the pen.
T-Bor
Active Member
....population growth is a policy choice that can be undone with the stroke of a pen?
I'd point out that the GTA was expanding by about 100,000 people per year before the post-COVID population surge. These people need to live somewhere, and most of that growth is in suburban areas.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
that depends a lot on your ability to actually shift modal shares.
I've done the math before, but at the population growth rates we are experiencing transit ridership in the GTA would need to see something like 30% annual ridership growth every year, with no gaps, in order to entirely offset auto trip growth. And that has nothing to do with improving over existing congestion levels.
We absolutely need to minimize auto trip growth as much as possible, and in fact are generally doing a better job than the assumptions in the original 413 study (which is great news!) - but we need basically impossible levels of transit growth to entirely offset new auto trips created through population growth.
And as great as it is that we are seeing transit ridership growth faster than expected, we are also growing much faster than originally expected as a whole. We need new transit infrastructure, and lots of it. But we also need new roads.