Roads: GTA West Corridor—Highway 413

[wopchop]

More road congestion and pollution is only a result of induced demand, which occurs with suburbanization. If you cut out suburbanization, then traffic doesn't go up and you reduce congestion which reduces idling, which guess what? Reduces pollution. The real answer to the 413 is to heavily increase the greenbelt around the highway, or at least introduce a new railline like the Bolton Line that will allow for better uses of the highway rather than just commuting, and considering how the stated goal of the 413 is to be mainly used as a Truck Bypass, such policies will help reach that goal easily.

It seems pretty clear to me that increasing the Greenbelt is not on the table at all. This government is not going to expand the Greenbelt in any meaningful way. When you think about how much land along the route is owned by developers, it is obvious this would be a huge battle for them.
This is also contradictory. If the stated goal of the 413 is as a truck bypass, that seems to contradict a lot of the official discussion and promotion for it, such as how much time it will save commuters.
We also already have a truck bypass (407ETR).

 

[ericmacm]

It seems pretty clear to me that increasing the Greenbelt is not on the table at all. This government is not going to expand the Greenbelt in any meaningful way.

The PCs are actually proposing Greenbelt expansion, with consultations that happened earlier this year. The areas in question are the Paris Galt Moraine (north of the existing Greenbelt around southern Guelph and Cambridge, stretching from Brantford to Erin) and expansion of river valley protections within the GGH south of the Greenbelt, with announcements recently being made for wetlands/river valleys in the Clarington area, as well as the Georgina area near Lake Simcoe. I believe that this expansion program was initially announced as a form of environmental compensation for potentially building the 413.

 

[wopchop]

. I believe that this expansion program was initially announced as a form of environmental compensation for potentially building the 413.

Exactly and that is my point.
They aren't going to expand the Green belt within the area of the 413.
And based on what you are saying, they are actively looking to compensate the predicted loss of Greenfields within th 413 zone.

 

[DirectionNorth]

Again, that doesn't matter if you know how to control it. As for the GTA, the biggest contributor to sprawl isn't highways, its the massive housing shortage we currently have. The reason why we're still constantly seeing new developments and sprawl in places like Caledon and Stouffville which aren't close to Highways at all is because municipalities are using the opportunity to sell off land and make housing money - capitalizing on the high demand, with the only housing method they know how.

We're not controlling it, but making it easier, and that's the problem.

I think we're debating on two topics; you're focused on sprawl policies (which I fully support), and I'm more focused on the highway at this point. Maybe it's an optimist/pessimist scenario?

Greenbelt expansion is leaving a large chunk of the GTA West lands out, and we know that this is going to get watered down anyways. It's as if they're leaving the lands open for sprawl on purpose.

More road congestion and pollution is only a result of induced demand, which occurs with suburbanization. If you cut out suburbanization, then traffic doesn't go up and you reduce congestion which reduces idling, which guess what? Reduces pollution. The real answer to the 413 is to heavily increase the greenbelt around the highway, or at least introduce a new railline like the Bolton Line that will allow for better uses of the highway rather than just commuting, and considering how the stated goal of the 413 is to be mainly used as a Truck Bypass, such policies will help reach that goal easily.

The marketing is targeted towards commuters, as wopchop has said. Why would they emphasize the time savings for commuters, which the website is doing, if it's aimed at truck drivers? Why don't they say that it will get trucks off the road, or make goods arrive faster? Because that's not its purpose, that's why. Besides, induced demand would fill the highway up anyway.

If we have transit, what use would there be for a highway "rather than just commuting?" Would it be car trips for everything not downtown oriented?

If it is a truck bypass, policies can be implemented easily. This being Toronto, and Doug Ford being in power, we're not going to see that.

It seems pretty clear to me that increasing the Greenbelt is not on the table at all. This government is not going to expand the Greenbelt in any meaningful way. When you think about how much land along the route is owned by developers, it is obvious this would be a huge battle for them.
This is also contradictory. If the stated goal of the 413 is as a truck bypass, that seems to contradict a lot of the official discussion and promotion for it, such as how much time it will save commuters.
We also already have a truck bypass (407ETR).

 

[ARG1]

We're not controlling it, but making it easier, and that's the problem.

I think we're debating on two topics; you're focused on sprawl policies (which I fully support), and I'm more focused on the highway at this point. Maybe it's an optimist/pessimist scenario?

Greenbelt expansion is leaving a large chunk of the GTA West lands out, and we know that this is going to get watered down anyways. It's as if they're leaving the lands open for sprawl on purpose.

If you look closer, the lands that aren't being expanded upon has already been slated for development, with the land already being purchased. Those areas are already long gone.

The marketing is targeted towards commuters, as wopchop has said. Why would they emphasize the time savings for commuters, which the website is doing, if it's aimed at truck drivers? Why don't they say that it will get trucks off the road, or make goods arrive faster? Because that's not its purpose, that's why. Besides, induced demand would fill the highway up anyway.

Less trucks on the 401 is a speed improvement for cars, regardless of whether or not they use the new 413. Also yes there will be some trips that will use the 413 to get from Northern to Western Ontario that it will speed up.

If we have transit, what use would there be for a highway "rather than just commuting?" Would it be car trips for everything not downtown oriented?

Yes

If it is a truck bypass, policies can be implemented easily. This being Toronto, and Doug Ford being in power, we're not going to see that.

Sure, but again that's a different issue to fight against altogether.

 

[allengeorge]

Less trucks on the 401 is a speed improvement for cars, regardless of whether or not they use the new 413. Also yes there will be some trips that will use the 413 to get from Northern to Western Ontario that it will speed up.

Except, with induced demand and the fact that those lands are going to be turned into a sea of fairly-low-density housing means up that this capacity and time savings will get eaten up within a decade. We’ll be back where we started in travel time, just with more highways, more cars and more sprawl.

 

[imerk]

Except, with induced demand and the fact that those lands are going to be turned into a sea of fairly-low-density housing means up that this capacity and time savings will get eaten up within a decade. We’ll be back where we started in travel time, just with more highways, more cars and more sprawl.

Except, we'll also be accommodating tens of thousands of trips per day in additional capacity for commuters and the movements of goods and services, which facilitates the population growth which is planned in the region with or without this highway. Induced demand plays a role, albeit not as large as many think due to the inelasticity of mode choice for these types of trips. However, the key choice is between having that existing latent demand and new demand from population growth on overly congested local roads or having that demand on proper highway infrastructure. Not to mention the redistribution of trips to more economical routes with the connection of Highway 400 and Highway 404.

 

[DirectionNorth]

Except, we'll also be accommodating tens of thousands of trips per day in additional capacity for commuters and the movements of goods and services, which facilitates the population growth which is planned in the region with or without this highway.

Again, here goes the "bad thing will happen, so let's encourage it!" I will support this highway if and only if the Greenbelt is expanded/some other form of protection is afforded to the non-developed land in Caledon.

Induced demand plays a role, albeit not as large as many think due to the inelasticity of mode choice for these types of trips.

The inelasticity of sprawl? If we build that s***, yeah.

However, the key choice is between having that existing latent demand and new demand from population growth on overly congested local roads or having that demand on proper highway infrastructure. Not to mention the redistribution of trips to more economical routes with the connection of Highway 400 and Highway 404.

So they say. I've asked this question plenty, and I've gotten zero answers: what is the current demand between far northern GTA and Brampton, Mississauga, and Halton? The highway's project website emphasizes commuter savings. Wonder who this highway is targeted towards?

Are we going to have booming population growth (how does that work anyways, you can have a booming population or population growth) in rural areas?

 

[innsertnamehere]

Again, here goes the "bad thing will happen, so let's encourage it!" I will support this highway if and only if the Greenbelt is expanded/some other form of protection is afforded to the non-developed land in Caledon.

The inelasticity of sprawl? If we build that s***, yeah.

So they say. I've asked this question plenty, and I've gotten zero answers: what is the current demand between far northern GTA and Brampton, Mississauga, and Halton? The highway's project website emphasizes commuter savings. Wonder who this highway is targeted towards?
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Are we going to have booming population growth (how does that work anyways, you can have a booming population or population growth) in rural areas?

If you read the initial corridor selection studies from ~2012, they identify the most savings coming from North Brampton and south Caledon residents. Think all the new subdivisions going up along Mayfield and all the industrial uses clustering in Bolton. There are also some smaller time savings from the existing freeway network, Overall congestion in the entire west-GTA study area would be about 10% lower than without the highway, mostly coming from reductions in arterial road congestion in Brampton, Caledon, and west Vaughan.

 

[allengeorge]

population growth which is planned in the region with or without this highway. Induced demand plays a role, albeit not as large as many think due to the inelasticity of mode choice for these types of trips.

Where the population grows and the inelasticity of mode share is not immutable. We’re making the crappiest possible choice on both, and then justifying that highway on that basis. Seems irresponsible.

 

[DirectionNorth]

If you read the initial corridor selection studies from ~2012, they identify the most savings coming from North Brampton and south Caledon residents. Think all the new subdivisions going up along Mayfield and all the industrial uses clustering in Bolton. There are also some smaller time savings from the existing freeway network, Overall congestion in the entire west-GTA study area would be about 10% lower than without the highway, mostly coming from reductions in arterial road congestion in Brampton, Caledon, and west Vaughan.

In other words, where we're planning to sprawl more.

 

[wopchop]

Again, the Bolton industrial use comes up.
Didn't we just open a Highway extension, which was highly predicated on warehousing expansion in Bolton and Highway 50?
Years ago I remember everyone telling me we had to build that extension because of all the distribution centres moving to Bolton. Now it's not enough. I use it regularly now, and it's practically empty at morning and evening rush hour from Major Mackenzie to 401.
But doesn't this highway already connect those businesses to 407ETR and 401? The former provides them with quick connections to all highways in the GTA.
It also provides them with access to thousands of commercial/industrial properties across Brampton, Vaughan, Markham - as it passes through seas of employment lands.
The 413 route does not.
But it does open up access to thousands of acres of land owned by developers, who will make fortunes of those lands.
And in the mean time, we designate Greenbelt lands outside of this area, as compensation for what we all know will happen - sprawl all along the route of this highway on those same lands.
So please explain to us again about how this Highway is for warehouses in Bolton, and how we need to get crap faster to Canadian Tires across the GTA.

 

[Translude15]

Again, the Bolton industrial use comes up.
Didn't we just open a Highway extension, which was highly predicated on warehousing expansion in Bolton and Highway 50?
Years ago I remember everyone telling me we had to build that extension because of all the distribution centres moving to Bolton. Now it's not enough. I use it regularly now, and it's practically empty at morning and evening rush hour from Major Mackenzie to 401.
But doesn't this highway already connect those businesses to 407ETR and 401? The former provides them with quick connections to all highways in the GTA.
It also provides them with access to thousands of commercial/industrial properties across Brampton, Vaughan, Markham - as it passes through seas of employment lands.
The 413 route does not.
But it does open up access to thousands of acres of land owned by developers, who will make fortunes of those lands.
And in the mean time, we designate Greenbelt lands outside of this area, as compensation for what we all know will happen - sprawl all along the route of this highway on those same lands.
So please explain to us again about how this Highway is for warehouses in Bolton, and how we need to get crap faster to Canadian Tires across the GTA.

It's not just Bolton/Caledon the 413 will service but that entire section of development land from the 407-401 interchange from North Mississauga (where Amazon currently is) along the border between Milton, Georgetown/Halton Hills and Brampton. Keep in mind, current vacancy rates in the GTA for industrial real estate is sitting around 1%. The situation there is dire.

For everyone harping against this sort of development I would also wager at the very least some, likely the majority, love the idea of e-commerce and online shopping delivered straight to ones residence. With due respect, all of those e-commerce channels require additional warehousing space which most of that western GTA land is earmarked for.

 

[Northern Light]

It's not just Bolton/Caledon the 413 will service but that entire section of development land from the 407-401 interchange from North Mississauga (where Amazon currently is) along the border between Milton, Georgetown/Halton Hills and Brampton. Keep in mind, current vacancy rates in the GTA for industrial real estate is sitting around 1%. The situation there is dire.

Industrial/logistics space can be multi-storey, it used to be, throughout Toronto at the turn of the 20thC. But the attitude that land was limitless resource resulted in 1-storey facilities that take up far more land than required.
Let the pressure build until older sites are redeveloped as multi-storey sites.

For everyone harping against this sort of development I would also wager at the very least some, likely the majority, love the idea of e-commerce and online shopping delivered straight to ones residence. With due respect, all of those e-commerce channels require additional warehousing space which most of that western GTA land is earmarked for.

I have yet to order a single physical product via e-commerce and will avoid doing so for as long as possible.
The only things I order online are plane/hotel reservations and tickets.

 

[afransen]

Industrial/logistics space can be multi-storey, it used to be, throughout Toronto at the turn of the 20thC. But the attitude that land was limitless resource resulted in 1-storey facilities that take up far more land than required.
Let the pressure build until older sites are redeveloped as multi-storey sites.

This is very rare with modern industrial space. It can be done, but only for certain uses that don't require large floor loads, such as ecommerce. Amazon already has 'multistory' warehouses that use mezzanines, but that is just a consequence of technology and no different than a merely tall '1 storey' warehouse in terms of ability to store goods.