Roads: GTA West Corridor—Highway 413

[sche]

Disagree. I don't think it is true that no (reasonable) transit infrastructure provision and built form could encourage high transit mode share. Otherwise we are just giving up. I don't think BRT in the highway ROW is the answer--on that we agree.

I think we could do regional rail TOD that integrates into GO rail expansion on Kitchener, Milton and perhaps Lakeshore.

I would argue that any form of rail along this corridor is not "reasonable." It's not even on the books, would have terrible ridership, and would be an absolutely terrible use of transit money costing billions of dollars. High quality regional rail is even less likely - the RH line isn't even getting any decent service, nor is the Barrie Line north of Aurora. This is not happening.

Besides, the route is a circumferential route on the urban fringe. A transit route here would provide no direct connections to any major employment center. Any trip to Union, or Pearson, or MCC originating from most places along the 413 route would be extremely circuitous. Such a line would fail just like the Belt Line did in the 1890s.

That said, regional rail TOD is possible and there is an opportunity for it along existing GO corridors, like Innisfil or between Milton and Missisauga. But building a new multibillion dollar greenfield rail line with a circuitous and barely useful route, no existing demand, and only for the sake of new development is completely fantasy.

 

[afransen]

Is it circumferential if it is a branch off Kitchener or Milton? And what cost per km are you assuming to say it would cost billions? A rail ROW through greenfield should not cost that much--the expensive part would be any needed bridges.

 

[sche]

Is it circumferential if it is a branch off Kitchener or Milton? And what cost per km are you assuming to say it would cost billions? A rail ROW through greenfield should not cost that much--the expensive part would be any needed bridges.

Circumferential as in it's going around the city, as opposed to in and out. If it was a branch, then the line might be radial but the branch still circumferential. But, circumferential is just a term, so it's not super important. What's more important is that the route is indirect. For any new development in northern Brampton, northern Vaughan, or southern Caledon, if you want to use this hypothetical rail line to get downtown or to Pearson, you have to go southwest first then head back east on Kitchener/Milton. If the rail line is extended past the 400 to the Barrie Line, Northern Vaughan's detour is eliminated, but anyone from Brampton or Caledon would be heading northeast then south, again an indirect route.

As for "billions" of dollars, that was just a guess on my part, I would be fairly confident in saying that it would cost over $1B:
- The corridor is approx 50km. Most concession roads would probably need grade separation if we are going to develop the area, plus stations, a crossing of both the 400 and 407 and maybe 410 and 427, and property acquisition. $1 billion for 50km is $20M/km, $2 billion is $40M/km.

For reference the ~20km GO Bowmanville extension is apparently going to cost $372 - 376 million 2018 dollars using the GM spur according to the IBC, or $575 - 586 million not using the GM spur (and thus necessitating a new 401 bridge): http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regiona...e-Rail-Service-Extension-IBC-Update-FINAL.pdf

 

[afransen]

Given this discussion stemmed from the Brampton proposal for this stretch of 413, I was not referring to all 50 km of the proposed corridor). If we got 50 km of new ROW, that is a lot of potential for TOD. You could put 20 stations along that length, and if each station were developed at 60 residents per hectare/6000 per sqkm within 1.5km radius of a station, you have 42k residents * 20 stations = 850k residents within 15-20 minute walk/5 minute cycle ride of a transit station. And if this kind of development occurs along this line, with an appropriate mix of uses (including employment & shopping), I don't see how it wouldn't be used for a large share of trips along its length, nevermind the ability to travel downtown as well.

I mean, if we are willing to spend $6B on a highway for this corridor, $1-2B to ensure we are successful in building transit oriented development seems like good value to me. We can wait until it's built up and try to add pathetic transitway BRT or impossibly expensive (subway) & slow (light rail) later, but that is just guaranteeing it will be car oriented.

 

[Ward8]

I'm trying to catch up on this thread, so bear with me, but has the government put forward any information to support the need for this highway that contradicts the 2018 report? When this project was initially cancelled it was determined that commuters would only save 30 seconds and that reconfiguring existing assets would have a greater impact on the movement of people and goods. This seems like an enormous waste of money to me. Has anything changed in the last 3 years?

 

[sche]

Given this discussion stemmed from the Brampton proposal for this stretch of 413, I was not referring to all 50 km of the proposed corridor). If we got 50 km of new ROW, that is a lot of potential for TOD. You could put 20 stations along that length, and if each station were developed at 60 residents per hectare/6000 per sqkm within 1.5km radius of a station, you have 42k residents * 20 stations = 850k residents within 15-20 minute walk/5 minute cycle ride of a transit station. And if this kind of development occurs along this line, with an appropriate mix of uses (including employment & shopping), I don't see how it wouldn't be used for a large share of trips along its length, nevermind the ability to travel downtown as well.

I mean, if we are willing to spend $6B on a highway for this corridor, $1-2B to ensure we are successful in building transit oriented development seems like good value to me. We can wait until it's built up and try to add pathetic transitway BRT or impossibly expensive (subway) & slow (light rail) later, but that is just guaranteeing it will be car oriented.

I think $1-2B is probably lowballing it actually. The Bowmanville extension is something like 20-25 million 2018 dollars per km, and that's basically just building stations on an existing rail line with maybe a few extra tracks. A new build rail line is going to cost significantly more, obviously, but I'm not sure how much more exactly. Inflation needs to be factored too.

Honestly though, this is just not happening. Maybe can be discussed in the Fantasy thread. A rail line here is really not a good investment; if we want more greenfield regional rail TOD for new residents we can put that along the Stouffville and Barrie lines up north without building any new track. The 413 corridor is a pretty lousy alignment and would get low ridership. Even if 100% of trips along the corridor use the rail line (which is not going to happen due to the parallel highway which will probably offer faster door-to-door travel times), most trips will probably not be within the corridor and can't really make use of the rail line. The few billion dollars would be much better spent in the area on, say, extending Hurontario LRT, BRT lanes, or more far-fetched alternatives like OBRY GO service or completing the Missing Link to get CN off the Kitchener Line.

 

[north-of-anything]

I'm struggling to see how a rail line along the outside of Brampton (or any mass transit that isn't a GO bus) would be a logical spine for transit-oriented development if Innisfil's Orbit proposal along an existing, soon-to-be-electrified rail line on land already zoned to be developed is "unrealistic". Especially since we now know what Brampton's current vision of greenfield TOD is...

 

[afransen]

I'm struggling to see how a rail line along the outside of Brampton (or any mass transit that isn't a GO bus) would be a logical spine for transit-oriented development if Innisfil's Orbit proposal along an existing, soon-to-be-electrified rail line on land already zoned to be developed is "unrealistic". Especially since we now know what Brampton's current vision of greenfield TOD is...

The problem with Innisfil's plan is the amateurish rendering/urban design around the station (still just conceptual/cover of Popular Science-y). And maybe the fact that Innisfil is 100km away, which at 60kph avg speed for regional rail is still the better part of 2 hour trip. Innisfil will work well as a suburb of Barrie, but what it really needs is a few more stations along the Barrie line with mixed use development and more employment, so people can actually work nearby and take transit, as opposed to everyone who actually uses GO taking the train to Toronto.

Most of that strip north of Brampton would be under 50-60 km (rail distance) from Union, so 1 hr travel time. And let me tell you, you're not getting downtown faster by car from North Brampton, new highway or not.

And folks, we have 4 million people on the way... One Innisfil or a couple infill stations (new Milton station) aren't going to cut it.

 

[Allandale25]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1359300814075006978

 

[Transportfan]

Is the highway actually numbered 413 now as the title says?

 

[Allandale25]

^ Not sure if the Province has officially said anywhere that's the official 400-series number.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Is this super necessary Brampton bypass supposed to link up with the super necessary Bradford bypass....or is that "shhhhhhh, don't worry about it" type stuff?

 

[kamira51]

Is this super necessary Brampton bypass supposed to link up with the super necessary Bradford bypass....or is that "shhhhhhh, don't worry about it" type stuff?

Unless the province wants to start running an east-west go line in the middle of nowhere, then this is all we got right now.

 

[Northern Light]

Unless the province wants to start running an east-west go line in the middle of nowhere, then this is all we got right now.

If you presume that it is people's right to expect an easy commute, over long distances, from one low-density area to another.

You could, instead, presume that such commutes are absurd, and no one has a right to expect an easy commute in such circumstances.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Unless the province wants to start running an east-west go line in the middle of nowhere, then this is all we got right now.

Wait so running a train line in the middle of nowhere is asinine but building a highway is reasonable? I don't follow.

Why does the middle of nowhere need a highway, pray tell?