The government hasn’t released detailed modelling to support the 30-minute figure. But a spokesperson for Transportation Minister Caroline Mulroney said the numbers are based on calculations that show if the 413 isn’t built, peak-hour operating speeds on the 400 and 401 will drop to 35 km/h by 2041, and a trip between King and Trafalgar will take 89 minutes.
The trip on Highway 413 would be faster, at 59 minutes. But even by the government’s estimates the new roadway would hardly be congestion-free. By 2041, at its busiest times the 413 would have an average travel speed of 55 km/h.
Asked whether the government’s estimates take into account induced demand, Jordanna Colwill, the minister’s spokesperson, said they capture “demand that would shift to the new highways from other modes or other adjacent roads.”