Rail: Ontario-Quebec High Speed Rail Study

[ksun]

A better comparison would be Spain. Its high speed rail corridors have similar populations and distances as ours would. Barcalona-Madrid is an almost perfect mirror to Toronto-Montreal.

I just booked the Madrid-Barcelona AVE ticket for next month. 624km in 2.5 hours. Toronto-Montreal is 542km, and now takes 5 hours.
The AVE cost me 30 euros, or $44 - much less expensive than our current slow VIA. Wondering how much Tor/Mtl will cost if the trip takes 2.5 hours.

 

[mdrejhon]

The province has mentioned a frequent-commuter ~$10 fare for a Toronto-Kitchener HSR fare (~30-40 minute trip). This is accurately proportionally representative of high speed trains in Europe on a distance basis.

As a Hamiltonian, it would be lovely to see HSR pass by Hamilton.

But there is really only one direction that the TKL corridor is going -- roughly this route -- as some high speed commuter service branded under the GO umbrella. RER incremental upgrades are hitting Kitchener route, and by the time they're ready for HSR construction, Metrolinx already owns most of the track, and the whole corridor could electrify. We'd probably see RER to Kitchener first before high speed GO trains to London, as part of a "Next Phase RER" plan, assuming Ontario is still spearheading this plan.

The transit modal share in both Kitchener and London (LRTs in both cities by then) would finally justify HSR in the corridor by the time they're ready to do the construction go-ahead.

They'll drag and drag their feet, trains won't run till 2030s or 2040s (meaning: 2030-2049), but unlike past studies, this could be the study that slowly leads to an even bigger step like fine-tuning (more serious studies), and so on, that finally leads to the construction go-ahead. It is getting close to a slam dunk in a business case (finally) given Kitchener's ION LRT and burgeoning densification that's already occuring in its arterial & transit corridors. If London f

 

[smallspy]

The small problem with the Stratford line is the number of grade crossings it has. It's also what, 10% longer? (don't have a track atlas to hand so guesstimating based on GMaps)

Not 10% - 10 kilometers.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[TOareaFan]

The province has mentioned a frequent-commuter ~$10 fare for a Toronto-Kitchener HSR fare (~30-40 minute trip).

Of all the bizarre claims Minister Murray made about this slapped together in time for the election "plan"...this was the most bizarre. So if a high speed 40 minute trip from KW to Toronto is gonna be ten bucks....what is the appropriate price for the lower speed 2 hour GO service which is currently ~$15? Does that go to $7.50? $5? .....what impact does that have on pricing down the corridor?

What is the cost recovery model in building this HSR system to connect KW to Toronto that makes sense if people can travel on it for $10?

 

[dowlingm]

Not 10% - 10 kilometers.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

Thanks. My estimate was roughly 220km vs 200km. Even 10km more for same journey time means 5% higher average speed so probably 10% higher nominal top speed when permanent speed restrictions etc. considered.

That's why an HSR line would likely go in a new corridor between Kitchener and London. A more or less straight line between the two would take a lot of distance off the route and make it almost as short as a route through Aldershot.

You're likely correct but that was sort of my point - a "Stratford" HSR line is highly unlikely

 

[TOareaFan]

I know that, at the time, that was really just a "line on a map"/conceptual type thing.....but has anyone yet zoomed in and figured out what is under that line and whether it is even remotely possible yet?

 

[mdrejhon]

What is the cost recovery model in building this HSR system to connect KW to Toronto that makes sense if people can travel on it for $10?

Mass traffic. Big time.

By then, it is probably closer to $20+ inflation-adjusted. Again, this is frequent-commuter fare. Realistically I see it delayed-but-not-cancelled (a few can-kicks down the road) causing service to 2030s-2040s.

Historically, rail traffic spiked ultra-dramatically (in some cases, by over two orders of magnitude -- depending on route) upon introduction of a frequent high speed service.

Not long after introduction, the TGV service in France got so overcrowded on the original route, they now run bilevel high speed trains at 3-minute headways at peak.

The mass traffic economic case only makes sense when there's really good transit connection in all the cites served by HSR. This will become true in 2030s-2040s. Waterloo will have a wonderful 20+ years of TOD (Transit Oriented Development) by the time high speed trains arrive there, that is a LOT of new demand. Staggering and jaw dropping league.

Catching a HSR train in France and Japan is like tapping a Presto card and hopping onto the next train. In Japan, on some Shinkansen trains, seating is unassigned just like GO, on the economy coaches and you can be a standee on a Shinkansen train. Shinkansen use subway-style faregates, and some Japanese use the Shinkansen just like a subway. Tap, hop on, hop off, Tap out, done. Trains are more frequent than Sheppard Subway!

For Kitchener, it won't be quite that standard, but there can be allday high speed trains ramping up every, say, 15 to 30 minutes all day by 2050-ish as Kitchener/London goes through subsequent accelerated growth post-HSR-era.

The comparable population density for Europe high speed trains for a London-Kitchener-Toronto density, have their high speed trians running typically 15-30 mins peak and hourly all day long. So that's probably how it could be initially introduced as. Barcelona-Madrid is hourly offpeak, and 20 min peak. This is a very GO-train flavored high speed train!

Frequent commuter TGV pricing in Europe is similar to GO trains here.

 

[nfitz]

I know that, at the time, that was really just a "line on a map"/conceptual type thing.....but has anyone yet zoomed in and figured out what is under that line and whether it is even remotely possible yet?

Yes. Some of it is laughable. The Niagara Escarpment crossing for one. They have little choice but following the existing alignment through the escarpment, to Acton. And by the time you do that, you might as well just run through Guelph.

 

[salsa]

Of all the bizarre claims Minister Murray made about this slapped together in time for the election "plan"...this was the most bizarre. So if a high speed 40 minute trip from KW to Toronto is gonna be ten bucks....what is the appropriate price for the lower speed 2 hour GO service which is currently ~$15? Does that go to $7.50? $5? .....what impact does that have on pricing down the corridor?

Not to mention that our little UP Express service is $19 (if you have a presto card).

 

[TOareaFan]

Mass traffic. Big time.

By then, it is probably closer to $20+ inflation-adjusted. Again, this is frequent-commuter fare. Realistically I see it delayed-but-not-cancelled (a few can-kicks down the road) causing service to 2030s-2040s.

Historically, rail traffic spiked ultra-dramatically (in some cases, by two orders of magnitude) upon introduction of a frequent high speed service.

Ok inflation adjust the $10....but people are already paying $15 for a two hour service....so you still have to, either, adjust those fares down to reflect the inferior quailty of service or cancel them outright.....(using today's figures) if the 4o minute service is $10 and the 2 hour service is $15....why would anyone pay $15 to spend over 2x as long getting where they are going....so either the fares have to drop dramatically on the lesser service or ridership goes to zero and you cancel the service.

I would think that ridership between KW and Toronto could grow 2X and you still would not be in anyone's definition of "mass traffic. Big time"

 

[Duck]

Mass traffic. Big time.
Not long after introduction, the TGV service in France got so overcrowded on the original route, they now run bilevel high speed trains at 3-minute headways at peak.

...It gets even better than that, they actually often run two complete bi-level trains coupled together, just to get even more capacity! Nothing quiet like seeing two TGV-Duplex's blast by at Haute-Picardie at 320 km/h!

 

[mdrejhon]

I would think that ridership between KW and Toronto could grow 2X and you still would not be in anyone's definition of "mass traffic. Big time"

Um, anybody who says it is only a 2x increase is seriously deluded. Even though it won't be two orders of magnitude, a mere 2x is the very wrong ballpark based on outdated studies or assumption that high speed trains started today (And even so, that's still stupidly Homer Simpson conservative, considering that near-elimination of all intercity buses on that bus route, as often happens with new high speed service, puts more than 2x increase on existing GO trians alone!).

This isn't Sochi white elephant high speed, or overpriced UPX, but a new high speed train to newly transit-oriented cities. If you stubbornly continue to believe the 2x number, it's not worth further discussing this conversation over.

The merits of business case is worth discussion and can easily be debated, but it is stupidly dumb to use the "2x" number as to be totally dismissed worse than Rob Ford.

Now, to address the constructive points worth addressing in your reply, Europe pricing is often higher for single tickets than frequent commuters. So there would a frequent commuter discount. You might pay, say $55 for coach on the spot, versus $22.50 (inflation adjusted) Kitchener frequent commuter fare.

 

[nfitz]

Ok inflation adjust the $10....but people are already paying $15 for a two hour service....so you still have to, either, adjust those fares down to reflect the inferior quailty of service or cancel them outright.....(using today's figures) if the 4o minute service is $10 and the 2 hour service is $15....why would anyone pay $15 to spend over 2x as long getting where they are going....so either the fares have to drop dramatically on the lesser service or ridership goes to zero and you cancel the service.

I think you are taking the $10 out-of-context. The comment at the time was that the fair would be around $40. The current fare from Kitchener is about $15 with Presto ($16.60 cash).

The full quote was:

"For a lot of people it will be a $10, $20, $25 ride if they're doing it every day. If you're a frequent rider you pay a much lower fare, if you book early or in advance you get a lower fare and if you're an infrequent rider who rides it once or twice a month you're probably going to pay a higher than $40 fare. If you're going to use it to commute it will be very inexpensive. If you're someone who's living in London who's going to the airport at the last minute it will be more expensive. The average fare will be $40 a ride going from London to downtown Toronto"​

A monthly pass from Kitchener is currently $532.95, and a child is $322.00. So if you are doing it every day, 62 trips a month then the current Kitchener fare is $5 to $9 currently. If you are 40 trips a month and an adult it's $13.

So yes, fares from London (not accounting for how many decades of inflation will occur before it opens) could be $10, $20, $25 a ride if doing it every day. If an adult travels every weekday, $25 is quite imaginable. And then a child travelling every day then $10 is quite believable.

This doesn't mean that the walk-up fare one-time from London will be $10. They said $40.

 

[TOareaFan]

Um, anybody who says it is only a 2x increase is seriously deluded. Even though it won't be two orders of magnitude, a mere 2x is the very wrong ballpark based on outdated studies or assumption that high speed trains started today (And even so, that's still stupidly Homer Simpson conservative, considering that near-elimination of all intercity buses on that bus route, as often happens with new high speed service, puts more than 2x increase on existing GO trians alone!).

This isn't Sochi white elephant high speed, or overpriced UPX, but a new high speed train to newly transit-oriented cities. If you stubbornly continue to believe the 2x number, it's not worth further discussing this conversation over.

The merits of business case is worth discussion and can easily be debated, but it is stupidly dumb to use the "2x" number as to be totally dismissed worse than Rob Ford.

Instead of trying to be insulting...explain to me what you mean by "two orders of magnitude"...how many riders are going to be on this that would make those fares make any sense at all.

Now, to address the constructive points worth addressing in your reply, Europe pricing is often higher for single tickets than frequent commuters. So there would a frequent commuter discount. You might pay, say $55 for coach on the spot, versus $22.50 (inflation adjusted) Kitchener frequent commuter fare.

But that $22.50 inflation adjusted figure is still less than the current frequent user fare inflation adjusted.

 

[mdrejhon]

This doesn't mean that the walk-up fare one-time from London will be $10. They said $40.

Right, though I interpreted $10 to refer to frequent-commuter Kitchener.
This is roughly in line with Euro/Japan style pricing for a similar distance, though there's routes where it's even cheaper.

Realisticailly, it'll probably be far higher due to inflation due to delays that "kick the can" out to right after RER electrification to Kitchener. Or something.