Rail: Ontario-Quebec High Speed Rail Study

[amnesiajune]

Where the heck did you get this statistic?

Air Canada, WestJet and Porter all publish time tables where you can figure out the number of seats they fly between cities, and the MTO publishes average daily vehicle volumes for all of its highways.

Car travel accounts for about 70% of all travel between Toronto and Montreal. Planes only account for about 12 or 14%. VIA is at around 4%.

Where the heck did you get this statistic. The 401's traffic volume (both directions combined) at the Quebec-Ontario border is 19,100 vehicles per day. If what you're saying were true, and all of those 19,100 vehicles were moving passengers between Toronto and Montreal (which is obviously not happening, but we'll make that assumption for illustrative purposes), then there would only be 4,000 - 5,000 plane seats per day between the two cities. Air Canada alone flies more than that - on weekdays they have 2,200 seats between Montreal and City Centre airport, and another 6,320 seats between Montreal and Pearson.

So that leaves one of three possibilities:

1. Airlines are flying mostly-empty planes every 15 minutes between the two cities
2. The average car is crossing the Quebec-Ontario border with an obscene number of people in it
3. This statistic is very wrong

#3 seems to be the culprit.

 

[smallspy]

Where the heck did you get this statistic.

VIA Rail.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I can't honestly foresee a day when we actually see HSR on dedicated tracks between Ontario and Quebec. There's no available cash, no political capital to be gained, the idea to execution timespan would cover at least three federal election cycles, the land is not available, especially in GTA thus requiring the HSR to enter CN/CP tracks and travel at a crawl through cities, and lastly, air travel is relatively cheap and our private autos are often more convenient. I hope I'm wrong, I want to be wrong, but I just don't seee HSR happening beyond a very few gov't pet initiatives.

 

[nfitz]

Well, the 2013 AADTs are at http://www.raqsa.mto.gov.on.ca/techpubs/TrafficVolumes.nsf/tvweb - where you can see that the 2013 AADT (annual average daily traffic) for section 20 (of 160) of the 401 near Brockville is only 26,500. So 13,250 per direction.

Further east, past the 416, it's as low as 16,000 for segment 12 near Morrisburg. So 8,000 cars per direction. But what's the average passengers/car - it's higher for long-haul than it is for commuting.

Not sure what the seat count comes from - but should be pretty easy to estimate from the schedules, and published load factors.

 

[amnesiajune]

But what's the average passengers/car - it's higher for long-haul than it is for commuting.

It's definitely higher, but the average car isn't likely to be carrying more than 1.5-2 people. On top of that, there's a significant amount of commercial traffic in that figure, and there's a lot of traffic going to cities in between (Trenton, Belleville, Kingston, Smith's Falls, Cornwall, etc.)

I'd like to see where Via Rail has that statistic posted, but even officially-sourced statistics can be hilariously inaccurate. Remember when our current TTC Chair said that the Sheppard Subway takes up 10% of the entire TTC operating budget, including farebox revenue?

 

[smallspy]

And how many of the bums in the plane seats are actually travelling between Toronto and Montreal, and not headed to further off destinations? What's the load factor? The number of actual seats in the air won't give you either of those numbers.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[amnesiajune]

And how many of the bums in the plane seats are actually travelling between Toronto and Montreal, and not headed to further off destinations?

Probably a much higher proportion than what you get on Highway 401.

What's the load factor? The number of actual seats in the air won't give you either of those numbers.

Considering how slim profit margins are in airlines, there won't be a flight every 15 minutes if those planes aren't flying full.

 

[nfitz]

And how many of the bums in the plane seats are actually travelling between Toronto and Montreal...

Surely the bums are all heading to Ottawa.

... I'll get my coat ...

 

[narduch]

I know its anecdotal, but I fly Toronto to Montreal a lot for work.

On the flights I'm on the bulk of the passengers appear to be men in business attire.

I don't know what the right percentage is, but I'd say most people aren't getting on connecting flights.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I don't know what the right percentage is, but I'd say most people aren't getting on connecting flights.

I've flown a lot and never connected via Montreal. I appreciate we sometimes accept connecting flights due to lack of available direct flights, but otherwise where can you get to from Montreal that you can go direct from Toronto?

 

[crs1026]

I've flown a lot and never connected via Montreal. I appreciate we sometimes accept connecting flights due to lack of available direct flights, but otherwise where can you get to from Montreal that you can go direct from Toronto?

Strictly speaking, only some regional destinations in Quebec and New England. St Pierre - Miquelon. Varadero Cuba. Bathurst NB.

However, the connecting flights which duplicate direct Toronto flights do attract a lot of southwest Ontario traffic when the direct flights are full.

- Paul

 

[rbt]

I've flown a lot and never connected via Montreal. I appreciate we sometimes accept connecting flights due to lack of available direct flights, but otherwise where can you get to from Montreal that you can go direct from Toronto?

I've connected in Montreal several times. Flights to french regions (Paris, Casa Blanca, Algiers, etc.) are (or used to be) more frequent and often cheaper from Montreal than Toronto direct.

That said, mostly I get redirected there for weather. My favourite was hopping on an 11pm flight from Laguardia (Toronto/Ottawa flights already cancelled) about 15 minutes before LGA was shut-down for 2 days. The chapel in Montreal has nice long padded benches and a door that closes for a few hours shut-eye before the 5:30 to Toronto.

When airports start closing, I try really hard to get to someplace with regular train connections: Montreal/Ottawa/Detroit/Buffalo (in that order).

 

[smallspy]

I've flown a lot and never connected via Montreal. I appreciate we sometimes accept connecting flights due to lack of available direct flights, but otherwise where can you get to from Montreal that you can go direct from Toronto?

I've flown a lot, and I've only ever connected or flown through Montreal. A number of my friends have done the same as well.

There are a reasonable number of European and African destinations that you can only get to directly via Montreal. And in some cases, such as Porter, a good proportion to a majority of their flights to the East Coast are made with a stopover in Montreal.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[TOareaFan]

I've flown a lot, and I've only ever connected or flown through Montreal. A number of my friends have done the same as well.

There are a reasonable number of European and African destinations that you can only get to directly via Montreal. And in some cases, such as Porter, a good proportion to a majority of their flights to the East Coast are made with a stopover in Montreal.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

Learn something new every day.....I thought the Porter east coast flights were routed through Ottawa.

 

[innsertnamehere]

I've flown Porter to the east coast twice, once was direct (I believe this was Halifax), once was through Ottawa (Moncton)