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PM Mark Carney's Canada

The North American auto industry is undergoing a dramatic and largely underreported transformation, as Japanese carmakers quietly but decisively rethink their future in the United States​

From https://northwavenews.com/posts/the-north-american-auto-industry-is-undergoing-a-dramatic-and-largely-underreported-transformation-as-japanese-carmakers-quietly-but-decisively-rethink-their-future-in-the-united-states-baongoc-baongoc/

The North American auto industry is undergoing a dramatic and largely underreported transformation, as Japanese carmakers quietly but decisively rethink their future in the United States. Triggered by President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy, what began as a push to revive American manufacturing has instead unleashed a $700 billion realignment of production, investment, and supply chains. From Toyota to Subaru and Honda, Japan’s biggest auto brands are no longer betting on the U.S. as their safest base. They are shifting north, and Canada is emerging as the biggest winner.
The first clear signal came in early 2025 when Subaru announced that its Indiana plant would stop producing the Outback for the Canadian market. Instead, production for Canada was moved back to Japan, a move driven not by logistics but by trade policy. Thanks to the Japan–Canada free trade agreement, vehicles can move between the two countries without tariffs, while U.S.–Canada trade is now burdened by overlapping 25 percent duties. As a result, Subaru’s exports from the U.S. to Canada collapsed from 26 percent to just 10 percent in one year, proving that Trump’s tariffs were distorting long-established supply chains.

For Japan, the stakes are enormous. More than a quarter of all Japanese vehicle exports go to the United States, and nearly 8 percent of the country’s workforce depends on the auto sector. With tariffs on Japanese cars and parts entering the U.S. reaching as high as 49 percent, manufacturers are facing billions in losses. Analysts estimate that Japanese automakers are losing nearly $25 billion a year from these trade barriers alone, with Toyota carrying a large share of the burden. Under these conditions, staying heavily invested in the U.S. has become a financial risk rather than a strategic advantage.

Canada, by contrast, offers what global manufacturers value most: stability and predictability. Japanese firms are now expanding hybrid and electric vehicle production in Ontario, while also relocating research, logistics, and management operations to cities like Toronto. Canada already hosts seven Japanese automotive plants, supporting about 30,000 direct jobs, and that number is rising as new investments flow in. With more than $14 billion invested to date and over 5.2 million Canadian-built Japanese vehicles exported worldwide since 1993, Canada has quietly become a global hub for Japanese brands.
This shift is not just about today’s cars but about the future of the entire industry. Electric vehicles, advanced batteries, and globalized parts networks require a stable trade environment to function. As U.S. tariffs stack on steel, aluminum, auto parts, and finished vehicles, production costs inside America keep rising, pushing prices higher for consumers and shrinking profit margins for manufacturers. To survive, many companies are adopting a split supply model, keeping design in Japan, moving large-scale manufacturing to Canada, and exporting to the world from there.

History shows this is not the first time protectionism has backfired. In the 1980s, U.S. restrictions on Japanese cars pushed Honda and Toyota to build in Canada, laying the foundation for today’s powerful Canadian auto
 

CANADA’S $262M RAIL MOVE BYPASSES U.S. PORTS — WASHINGTON STUNNED.​

From https://todayonus.com/posts/breaking-canadas-262m-rail-move-bypasses-u-s-ports-washington-stunned-xamxam
A century-old assumption in North American trade is beginning to crack, not because of a tariff, a treaty, or a diplomatic rupture, but because of steel, ballast, and rail ties laid across muskeg and thawing permafrost.
With a combined $262 million federal and provincial investment announced in late 2025, Canada has committed to upgrading the Hudson Bay Railway to Class One freight standards, transforming a long-neglected northern line into a high-capacity trade corridor linking the Prairies directly to the Arctic. From there, exports can move through the Port of Churchill to Europe and beyond — without touching American railways or ports.

On paper, the project reads like infrastructure policy. In practice, it is a strategic reordering of leverage.

For more than a century, Western Canada’s grain, fertilizer, minerals, and bulk commodities flowed south by default. American railways handled schedules, U.S. ports controlled access, and Canadian producers paid the fees because there was no scalable alternative. Geography, capital, and habit locked in the system. The northern route existed, but only marginally — underfunded, seasonal, and unreliable.

That calculus changed under Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose government has framed infrastructure not simply as economic stimulus, but as sovereignty. The rail upgrade, first unveiled beside Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew in Winnipeg, was described not as routine maintenance but as the backbone of a new export corridor designed explicitly to bypass U.S.-controlled logistics.

The timing is not accidental. Since returning to office, Donald Trump has revived tariff threats, invoked national security to justify trade barriers, and openly questioned Canadian sovereignty. For Ottawa, the lesson has been stark: dependence on another country’s infrastructure is dependence, full stop.

The Hudson Bay Railway was long considered a cautionary tale. Built in the early 20th century to give Prairie grain a direct route to Europe, it spent decades battling unstable terrain, extreme cold, flooding, and a shipping season often limited to four months. As southern routes through Vancouver and the United States grew faster and cheaper in practice, the northern line fell into neglect.

In 1997, the federal government sold both the railway and the port to a U.S.-based firm for the symbolic price of one dollar — a tacit admission that Ottawa saw no future in it. When floods washed out large sections of track in 2017, service collapsed entirely.
What revived the line was not nostalgia, but ownership and geopolitics. In 2018, a consortium of First Nations and northern municipalities acquired the assets, forming the Arctic Gateway Group. At the time, few analysts expected a transformation. That assumption did not survive the 2020s.

The current rebuild is comprehensive. The railway is being reconstructed to support heavy freight at modern speeds, with reinforced roadbeds, upgraded bridges, new rail and ties, and advanced monitoring systems using ground-penetrating radar, sensors, and predictive analytics. The goal is reliability — the single most important factor for exporters deciding whether a route is viable long-term.

Once operational at full capacity, the implications cascade. Prairie grain can reach European markets days faster than via Vancouver. Saskatchewan potash — most of which is exported — can move north without passing through American terminals. Fertilizer imports and exports can bypass U.S. ports entirely. Critical minerals from central and northern Canada can ship directly to overseas refineries.

Each shipment that takes this route represents more than efficiency. It represents fees not paid, leverage not surrendered, and decisions made in Ottawa rather than Washington.

American logistics firms have little recourse. Canada is not violating trade agreements or blocking access. It is simply investing in its own infrastructure and choosing to use it. Unlike tariffs, this is not a policy that can be challenged or reversed with a phone call.

Climate change, paradoxically, strengthens the case. While thawing permafrost complicates engineering, it has also lengthened the shipping season through Hudson Bay. With icebreaker support, Churchill’s operational window is expanding, not shrinking — altering assumptions that once doomed the route.

No one in Ottawa suggests southern corridors will disappear. Vancouver remains indispensable for Pacific trade, and U.S. routes will continue to serve certain markets. What is changing is optionality. For the first time in generations, Canadian exporters can choose.

History suggests such choices harden quickly. Once supply chains adapt, they rarely revert simply because old routes become cheaper again. Infrastructure shapes behavior, and behavior shapes power.

The $262 million spent on a railway through muskeg and permafrost is modest compared with the billions in trade it could redirect over the coming decades. More importantly, it signals a shift in mindset. Canada is no longer assuming that access must be granted. It is building access of its own.
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We have a trade truce with China:


From the above:

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I feel I definitely voted for the right PM in Carney. I can’t see how Poilivere can find a legit angle to complain.

Before the EV tariff, all of our EV imports from China were Teslas, after which Canadian market Teslas were sourced from the US. I wonder if Tesla Canada will switch back to China, or if China will only allow their own brands to be exported. I’d like to get myself a BYD Dolphin, especially if it’s $30k or less. The MGs are nice too.

 
We have a trade truce with China:

Here is a video of the press conference:

This is GREAT news for Canada! Allowing 49,000 Chinese EVs to be imported to Canada at 6.1% most favorite nation tariff is a good start. To put the 49,000 into perspective in 2024 Tesla sold 55K EVs in Canada (I suspect in 2025 that number of Tesla sales was way down). This agreement almost ensures that no new American made Tesla will be sold in Canada (and hopefully no Chinese made Tesla's).

The 49K is just a start and as the Chinese make more investments in Canada's auto sector this number will increase. Almost 2 million cars are sold in Canada and in this context 49K is not a big number, but it is a good start and a number that is sure to grow displacing the sale of American made cars of all types in Canada. I hope eventually all-American cars will be shut out of the Canadian market. The Americans have made it clear that they don't want to buy any car that we make so we would be stupid to be giving the American's our business especially when we can buy much better cars from China at half the price.

What I would like to know is what agreement was reached on Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV). China makes many great PHEV's especially in the SUV/Truck sector and they would be very attractive to many Canadian consumers since they represent "the best of both worlds" being both electric and gas powered.

The other good news coming out of this meeting is China is reducing the tariff on Canola, and other agricultural and fishery products to a level of 15% down from almost 100%!
 
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Here is the official statement from the PMO. https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-r...rney-forges-new-strategic-partnership-peoples

Lots of things to like in the announcement. It appears this trip was a big success. Regarding EVs here is specific wording:

"To help deliver the full potential of these partnerships, and build up our domestic manufacturing sector, Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles (EV) into the Canadian market, with the most-favoured-nation tariff rate of 6.1%. This amount corresponds to volumes in the year prior to recent trade frictions on these imports (2023-2024), representing less than 3% of the Canadian market for new vehicles sold in Canada. It is expected that within three years, this agreement will drive considerable new Chinese joint-venture investment in Canada with trusted partners to protect and create new auto manufacturing careers for Canadian workers, and ensure a robust build-out of Canada’s EV supply chain. With this agreement, it is also anticipated that, in five years, more than 50% of these vehicles will be affordable EVs with an import price of less than $35,000, creating new lower-cost options for Canadian consumers"

On Agri and fisheries:

"Agri-food and trade are foundations of the longstanding relationship between Canada and China – and China continues to be our second-largest export market. To renew and strengthen that relationship, Prime Minister Carney and President Xi secured a preliminary agreement-in-principle with landmark measures to remove trade barriers and reduce tariffs:

By March 1, 2026, Canada expects that China will lower tariffs on Canadian canola seed to a combined rate of approximately 15%. China is a $4 billion canola seed market for Canadian producers, and this change represents a significant drop from current combined tariff levels of approximately 85%.
Canada expects that Canadian canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas will not be subject to relevant anti-discrimination tariffs from March 1, 2026, until at least the end of this year.
Together, these results will help unlock nearly $3 billion in export orders for Canadian workers and businesses as they realize the full potential of the massive Chinese market of 1.4 billion people"
 
Top 20 economies and the % of their exports that go to the US market.

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Mexico I can understand, but when the USA represents only about 16% of global purchasing power (PPP), there's no reason beyond complacency and short term thinking for Canada to be directing 76% of all our exports to the USA.

Canada should be aiming for something below 25% of exports to the USA (same as the post-Brexit UK does, above), while growing the remaining 75% to other markets. Carney is on the right track towards this, IMO.
 
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Think the only person who might be upset with the Canada/China agreement is Doug Ford, and he can go kick rocks. Carney's been able to please Moe and farmers, remove a big hurdle on affordability on electric vehicles whilst simultaneously pivoting away from American influence on our foreign affairs. A good visit.

We're in a really interesting spot. We need China now more than ever for diversifying our import/export and they can use us as a significant lever against the US across the board. The results can be seen in the outcomes.
 

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