PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

[Richard White]

With respect to pharmacare, here's National Post's Chris Selley's take how far along this 'deal' is. The proposed Bill is simply a piece of enabling legislation that has very little substance, other than empowering to Minister to keep trying.


His take:

Chris Selley: There is no 'pharmacare deal'

Ontario hasn't 'opted in' because there is literally nothing to 'opt into'

nationalpost.com

The Bill:

Government Bill (House of Commons) C-64 (44-1) - First Reading - Pharmacare Act - Parliament of Canada

Government Bill (House of Commons) C-64 (44-1) - First Reading - Pharmacare Act - Parliament of Canada

www.parl.ca

Purpose of the Bill (Section 3):

3 The purpose of this Act is to guide efforts to improve, for all Canadians, the accessibility and affordability of prescription drugs and related products, and to support their appropriate use, in collaboration with the provinces, territories, Indigenous peoples and other partners and stakeholders, with the aim of continuing to work toward the implementation of national universal pharmacare. Its purpose is also to support the development of a national formulary of essential prescription drugs and related products and to provide for the development a national bulk purchasing strategy.​

This makes sense as they have to get a buy in from the provinces.

Politics is not about doing anything, it is about saying you are doing something.

 

[Towered]

How is nobody in Trudeau's inner circle not panicking about these consistently dismal numbers and scrambling to course correct?

 

[Richard White]

How is nobody in Trudeau's inner circle not panicking about these consistently dismal numbers and scrambling to course correct?

That's politics for you.

I know from experience how ideology and yes men can influence decision making.

Take Andrea Horwath for example. She was leader for years despite some dismal numbers in Ontario but because of party ideology and party brass drinking the Kool-Aid she was never replaced. This is why I stopped being a card carrying member of the NDP.

The LPC is likely going through something similar now. They probably have people within the party with their nose shoved so far up Trudeaus ass that all they can smell is the s*** he is shoveling.

Within political parties, the job of members is to support their leader. Most times, party members have staunch ideologies like with the CPC and do not believe anything other than what the party tells them.

The only time a party leader is tossed is when they screw up so badly there is no other choice like with Tom Mulcair.

 

[Towered]

That's politics for you.

I know from experience how ideology and yes men can influence decision making.

Take Andrea Horwath for example. She was leader for years despite some dismal numbers in Ontario but because of party ideology and party brass drinking the Kool-Aid she was never replaced. This is why I stopped being a card carrying member of the NDP.

The LPC is likely going through something similar now. They probably have people within the party with their nose shoved so far up Trudeaus ass that all they can smell is the s*** he is shoveling.

Within political parties, the job of members is to support their leader. Most times, party members have staunch ideologies like with the CPC and do not believe anything other than what the party tells them.

The only time a party leader is tossed is when they screw up so badly there is no other choice like with Tom Mulcair.

How is Trudeau himself not panicking? I'm assuming he reads the papers...

 

[evandyk]

All the Liberals' best people know there is no way to win the next election, so they're all happy with Trudeau taking the fall. It will be Trudeau, a nobody, or somebody old with no future.

 

[Richard White]

How is Trudeau himself not panicking? I'm assuming he reads the papers...

He probably has people within the party telling him he is doing a great job with internal polling showing that to be the case.

It is also likely damage control. If he admits defeat he is toast and he knows it.

 

[picard102]

How is Trudeau himself not panicking? I'm assuming he reads the papers...

He also knows an election is a long way out in political time.

 

[lenaitch]

How is Trudeau himself not panicking? I'm assuming he reads the papers...

No doubt, but the benchmark of any politician is winning, not succeeding, and he is an accomplished campaigner. Historically, the LPC can assemble a solid backroom team for elections. Besides, as mentioned, in political terms, the next election is lightyears away.

The caucus must feel fairly confident, either than or they are completely cowed; otherwise the knives would be out. Internal strife shows weakness and vulnerability, but I would think somebody would unearth rumblings of a palace coup if one was forming.

 

[Richard White]

No doubt, but the benchmark of any politician is winning, not succeeding, and he is an accomplished campaigner. Historically, the LPC can assemble a solid backroom team for elections. Besides, as mentioned, in political terms, the next election is lightyears away.

Agreed.

All is takes is one slip up for a person to get in serious political trouble. Take Mel Lastman just prior to his Kenya trip for example (where he likely cost us the 2008 Olympics).

Then again.. this is a minority parliament. Despite the supply and confidence arrangement the plug can be pulled at any time. All it takes is for PP, Jagmeet and the BQ to call for a vote.

 

[lenaitch]

Agreed.

All is takes is one slip up for a person to get in serious political trouble. Take Mel Lastman just prior to his Kenya trip for example (where he likely cost us the 2008 Olympics).

Then again.. this is a minority parliament. Despite the supply and confidence arrangement the plug can be pulled at any time. All it takes is for PP, Jagmeet and the BQ to call for a vote.

Any minority parliament walks on eggshells, but everybody does the math. Singh isn't eligible for an MP's pension until February of next year so he is disinclined to pull the plug. Besides, I'm not sure they could afford a campaign right now.

 

[kEiThZ]

Any minority parliament walks on eggshells, but everybody does the math. Singh isn't eligible for an MP's pension until February of next year so he is disinclined to pull the plug. Besides, I'm not sure they could afford a campaign right now.

To be fair, Singh was well off before politics and he's likely to win his seat, so not sure he's really worried about that pension. But I think the NDP needs some of these policies they pushed for, to at least have some implementation so they have something to run on. The Liberals know this and are delaying as long as possible.

 

[Towered]

Agreed.

All is takes is one slip up for a person to get in serious political trouble. Take Mel Lastman just prior to his Kenya trip for example (where he likely cost us the 2008 Olympics).

Then again.. this is a minority parliament. Despite the supply and confidence arrangement the plug can be pulled at any time. All it takes is for PP, Jagmeet and the BQ to call for a vote.

Lastman's gaffe aside, the 2008 Olympics were always going to be handed to Beijing. That was never in doubt, no matter what the other bid cities did.

 

[afransen]

Any minority parliament walks on eggshells, but everybody does the math. Singh isn't eligible for an MP's pension until February of next year so he is disinclined to pull the plug. Besides, I'm not sure they could afford a campaign right now.

I doubt Singh is worried about his pension. Probably thinking more about keeping his job as leader if he plays his hand poorly and gets a bad result from a policy/electoral results perspective. I think he lands some policy wins out of propping up the LPC, that would make up for a poor performance in the next election. But if he doesn't have anything to show for propping up the Liberals he will lose a lot of credibility unless he delivers a strong outcome after the next election.

 

[kEiThZ]

He also knows an election is a long way out in political time.

1.5 years with these poll numbers? I'm not sure that's actually a lot of time. Has there ever been a sitting government that made up this much ground in 1.5 years?

 

[Memph]

1.5 years with these poll numbers? I'm not sure that's actually a lot of time. Has there ever been a sitting government that made up this much ground in 1.5 years?

I wouldn't count on it taking 1.5 years either. If the Liberals continue to decline in the polls the way they have in the past 9 months, while the NDP remains relatively steady in the polls, we will soon be at a tipping point where the NDP has a chance at winning more seats than the Liberals.

And at that point, the fact that 2/3 of Liberals are more about voting against Poilievre than for Trudeau comes into play, if that 2/3 of Liberal support begins to feel that the NDP is a more viable counter to the Conservatives, then the gradual bleeding of support from the Liberals will turn into a complete collapse where they will likely finish 4th below the BQ. If the NDP feels this scenario is in the cards, I think they will call an election. They won't have any real expectation to beat the Conservatives, but if they can become the official opposition, they can improve their standing by criticizing the Conservative majority government and hope to do better 4 years later.

Polling averages from 338Canada

Conservatives
Jun: 34%
Aug: 35%
Oct: 38%
Dec: 40%
Mar: 41%

Liberals
Jun: 31%
Aug: 29%
Oct: 28%
Dec: 26%
Mar: 25%

NDP
June: 20%
Aug: 19%
Oct: 18%
Dec: 19%
Mar: 19%

It seems Liberals are bleeding support faster than the NDP, so if things keep up, the Liberals and NDP might be pretty even in 6-9 months. At that point the NDP will just need to pick a good issue to justify making a stand and calling an election over.

Only question is whether the NDP will be able to pull enough support away from the Liberals to win more seats than the Bloc, because I could see a situation where all 3 parties win around 40-45 seats, especially if the BQ can ride the coat-tails of the PQ who are currently supplanting the CAQ in Quebec provincial politics.