News   Jul 15, 2024
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News   Jul 15, 2024
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PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

I’m looking at sending my kids overseas for postgrad.

Good decision. And it's especially useful, to do it in a country they want to settle in.

My kids‘ friends didn’t bother to apply to UofT downtown campus as the rumour is that it’s most reserved for international students who want to feel that they’re at Hogwarts, and that Canadians go mostly to UofT Scarborough or Erindale.

I don't buy these rumours. Also, most U of T professional programs (like engineering) are downtown. That's why you see more foreign students there. They tend to want into those programs more.

An anecdote from my kid. Their friend is a Canadian-born of Chinese ethnicity. They speak some Chinese at home. At UofT Scarborough there are tons of PRC Chinese international students, and they bully our kids’ friend for not speaking proper Chinese, and in group work they exclude her.

That's less "PRC Chinese" than just classic racism and snobbery. Mainlanders are very different from the Cantonese people we got with the Hong Kong wave. But yes, among many issues with foreign students is them bringing their racism here.
 
I don’t think anything would change. We’d become like New Zealand, with little to no military.

Unlike New Zealand, if our allies told us to f*** off there would be intense pressure at home.

NATO and NORAD are well respected international organizations. If we got booted by a problem of our own making then we would look like buffons on the global stage.

To a point. The US isn't about to leave the backdoor to the continent unguarded. We decided to cut and they'll decide to unilaterally operate in and through Canada when and where necessary. See missile defence discussions, for example, where they have basically said exactly this.

Thay said, I'm under no illusions that the majority of this country cares what NATO thinks. A chunk of our right buys Russian propaganda about NATO being a tool of US imperialism. And a good bit of our left thinks any military is basically warmongering and that the CAF should be reduced to fighting forest fires while the US actually fights wars for us.

What is far more relevant is that in a world where trade is increasingly tied to security, our stinginess and laziness on security will be seen as unworthiness for economic or dual purpose partnership (see AUKUS) or even easy target to pick on (Nijjar assassination).
 
There's rumours that Anita Anand was removed because she advocated for such spending. Instead the government has decided to start cutting.
I assumed the cutting was due to Anand’s demands, not in-spite of them.


“Treasury Board President Anita Anand, the former defence minister, told other federal cabinet ministers in August they will be required to cut $15.4 billion in government spending”
 
I assumed the cutting was due to Anand’s demands, not in-spite of them.


“Treasury Board President Anita Anand, the former defence minister, told other federal cabinet ministers in August they will be required to cut $15.4 billion in government spending”

Different job. In her role as MND, she did seem to advocate for more expansion. In her role as TB President, she has to be the hatchet man. It's also likely she didn't want to be at DND to make cuts.
 
In her role as MND, she did seem to advocate for more expansion. In her role as TB President, she has to be the hatchet man.
It must be odd going from MND where you advocate for your ministry to becoming TB Prez where you use that same experience as MND to demand cuts. Is any other NATO member state reducing its military spending? What‘s Anand’s target for MND expense as a % of GDP?
 
Cancel all pending Visa, Citizenship and PR applications for Indian nationals and cut off diplomatic relations. Watch how quickly they cave when they realize they can no longer send their people over here.
Watch how quickly Ford and the premiers cry out that their perennially-underfunded colleges and universities will go broke without the Indian money.


And India knows it, and will use this leverage against Trudeau.

 
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The 2023 Federal budget is $497 billion. In Ontario it is $205 billion. Quebec is $148 billion. BC is $81 billion. Alberta is $68 billion. There is another $35-$50 billion from the remaining provinces.
$8 billion across Canada is a drop in the bucket, less than a percent.
 
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It must be odd going from MND where you advocate for your ministry to becoming TB Prez where you use that same experience as MND to demand cuts. Is any other NATO member state reducing its military spending? What‘s Anand’s target for MND expense as a % of GDP?
The same thing would happen every time somebody gets moved from a ministry to TB.

I don't know about hard reductions but Germany recently announced that it was 'walking back' from their commitment to meet the NATO target.
 
I agree. Cancel all pending Visa, Citizenship and PR applications for Indian nationals and cut off diplomatic relations.

Watch how quickly they cave when they realize they can no longer send their people over here.
I’m pissed at India but cutting off diplomatic relations is not constructive (at this point).

Canada does need to take retaliatory measures though. I never was a big Trudeau fan but I’ve always stood behind him in saying he’s been fine. Boring at worst. These past few weeks have been a disaster and further tanked Canada’s reputation on the world stage. He needs to go, the problem is there is no one to replace him.
 
It must be odd going from MND where you advocate for your ministry to becoming TB Prez where you use that same experience as MND to demand cuts. Is any other NATO member state reducing its military spending? What‘s Anand’s target for MND expense as a % of GDP?

Nothing unusual. Different job. Different mandate. What it does show is that she takes her jobs seriously, and doesn't blindly follow orders from cabinet.

Honestly, I wish she had stayed for the cuts. Because she's about the only person I trust to execute cuts competently. But unfortunately we got stuck with Blair as MND. And I have zero confidence that he won't challenge the generals on their preferences for cuts and push a real first principles test. Good ministers exercise the challenge function well and gain respect when they do it competently.

As for where we stand, I don't think there's anybody actually cutting. Lots have dialed back ambitions as interest rates have risen. Honestly, bad as a $1B cut is, I think it would be more manageable if there weren't other political decisions imposed on the CAF.

I'll give you an example of how bad the above gets. To improve our ability to deploy and standup rapidly, the RCAF decided to create an air expeditionary wing. The job of the AEW is to develop, manage and employ expeditionary capabilities to help the RCAF rapidly stand up a small detachment anywhere in the world. Not a bad goal. So what did the government do with this brilliant idea? They built the Wing in Bagottville to create jobs there. The airfield engineering unit that can build up shelters and clear an emergency airfield is in Cold Lake. The deployable air traffic control unit and the main transport fleet for the whole wing is in Trenton. Oh and the main joint operations group that stands up a new theatre is an army unit based in Kingston. Basically, if the RCAF wants to deploy a few helicopters to Haiti with a small camp, a Herc must be sent to Bagottville and then Cold Lake, then everybody including the army personnel from Kingston have to assemble in Trenton before leaving. Imagine the waste created by not co-locating in Trenton. And there's so many examples of poor planning and political interference like this across the CAF.
 
I’m pissed at India but cutting off diplomatic relations is not constructive (at this point).

Canada does need to take retaliatory measures though. I never was a big Trudeau fan but I’ve always stood behind him in saying he’s been fine. Boring at worst. These past few weeks have been a disaster and further tanked Canada’s reputation on the world stage. He needs to go, the problem is there is no one to replace him.

They are at the Dion and Ignatieff stage. They suck monkey balls but there is nobody qualified to replace him as you said.

The LPC Brand is toxic right now and they will be decimated in the next election. They know they are beholden to the NDP.
 
Nothing unusual. Different job. Different mandate. What it does show is that she takes her jobs seriously, and doesn't blindly follow orders from cabinet.

Honestly, I wish she had stayed for the cuts. Because she's about the only person I trust to execute cuts competently. But unfortunately we got stuck with Blair as MND. And I have zero confidence that he won't challenge the generals on their preferences for cuts and push a real first principles test. Good ministers exercise the challenge function well and gain respect when they do it competently.

As for where we stand, I don't think there's anybody actually cutting. Lots have dialed back ambitions as interest rates have risen. Honestly, bad as a $1B cut is, I think it would be more manageable if there weren't other political decisions imposed on the CAF.

I'll give you an example of how bad the above gets. To improve our ability to deploy and standup rapidly, the RCAF decided to create an air expeditionary wing. The job of the AEW is to develop, manage and employ expeditionary capabilities to help the RCAF rapidly stand up a small detachment anywhere in the world. Not a bad goal. So what did the government do with this brilliant idea? They built the Wing in Bagottville to create jobs there. The airfield engineering unit that can build up shelters and clear an emergency airfield is in Cold Lake. The deployable air traffic control unit and the main transport fleet for the whole wing is in Trenton. Oh and the main joint operations group that stands up a new theatre is an army unit based in Kingston. Basically, if the RCAF wants to deploy a few helicopters to Haiti with a small camp, a Herc must be sent to Bagottville and then Cold Lake, then everybody including the army personnel from Kingston have to assemble in Trenton before leaving. Imagine the waste created by not co-locating in Trenton. And there's so many examples of poor planning and political interference like this across the CAF.
I have heard that many of the people who make up DART are scattered all over creation as well.

The one thing that concerns me is a quote from Blair that capital projects may have to be pushed back or slowed down. It one thing if your current kit is halfways contemporary, but the fighters are (upgraded) 1980s and our warships are 30 years old and being worked like rented mules. The former oilers were fine . . . until they weren't.
 

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