Pickering Airport (Transport Canada/GTAA, Proposed)

[Woodbridge_Heights]

For those that say Hamilton can absorb Pearson's overflow I think they are missing a significant point. People who live east of the 404 still have a long commute over to travel out of Pearson. I estimate that there are almost 1 million people living in the Pickering, Oshawa, Whitby, Ajax, East Scarborough, and even Markham region who have an hour plus commute to get to Pearson.

Every time I think about my friends who make this trek I think to my self boy am I glad to be a West ender because for me that commute would be a major barrier

 

[gweed123]

edit: pman - unless the feds want to build all of the transport connections at their own expense, some kissy kissy with the province will have to happen at some point.

Probably the only way we're ever going to see a Midtown or Seaton GO line.

Option B is, assuming the UP Express isn't a total flop, to run that as a thru-line at Union, and have it run from Pearson, to Union, to Pickering, with intermediate stops at Bloor/Dundas West, Main St, and Agincourt/Sheppard East.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I don't get where people get facts. Pearson is not "well below maximum capacity". Sure, it's got room to max out. But there are economic consequences for the entire region if we aren't planning for when Pearson maxes out. Doesn't mean that an airport needs to built in Pickering now or never. But the discussion needs to happen.

These people want us to be in the same mess we're in with transit. When the economy losing $6 Billion per year is not the time to take action.

 

[EnviroTO]

The primary reason for building this airport now has very little to do with Pearson and has more to do with Brampton, Toronto Island, and Buttonville. Small aircraft, including private aircraft, flight schools, and small cargo aircraft like caravans, are finding if harder to find space in the Toronto area. Buttonville which is 15th in the country for aircraft movements is slated to close, non-commercial aircraft are being pushed out of Toronto Island, and Brampton is the busiest uncontrolled airport in Canada already. Interestingly enough the tower at Buttonville was built to be disassembled and moved knowing the day would come that it would close. So where to move the airport? There is no airport with nearly enough capacity to handle Buttonville's closure. Yes, Hamilton has the runway capacity, but it has less than 30% of the movements that Buttonville has showing two things, (a) Hamilton is too far away with significantly less movements than Buttonville and likely Brampton, and (b) even moving to an existing airport in the GTA would involve significant construction of apron space and small aircraft support facilities to handle the growth. Oshawa is a more viable alternative but after the expense of apron expansion and support facility construction the airport would probably be near capacity without much room for growth and when Oshawa tried to expand the runway there was so much opposition that the topic is a non starter in city council and since the city owns the airport there is nobody to push it through. A new airport at Pickering allows the expense of replacing Buttonville to not be wasted on an airport that doesn't have the ability to grow with demand and puts the airport closer to where the demand is.

The main runway is east-west which means that older neighbourhoods would be mostly unaffected, and the expected crosswind runway is aimed towards the Whitby-Ajax border away from the nuclear plants (not really a big issue anyways in my mind but I guess the odds of an issue are reduced in any case). The biggest impact will be to neighbourhoods which were built in Markham north of 16th Avenue which considering the long standing plan for the airport it is a bit surprising they allowed to develop. I wonder if the purchasers of those residences were advised properly that they were so close to an anticipated flight path.

Ground transportation to the airport is much easier to construct at Pickering than the alternatives as well. It is next to the 407 and a rail line. Even if there was an issue getting the space required on the CP line the cost of a rail connection from the intersection of Donald Cousens and the Stouffville line across open fields would not be that expensive compared to HSR to Hamilton up the escarpment especially considering the obstacle of abandoned rail lines, required grade separations, and the Hunter Street tunnel. UP Express could offer connecting passengers a very direct Pearson Airport - Georgetown Corridor - Union - Stouffville or Peterborough Corridor - Pickering Airport route which is much better than the difficulty connecting between New York airports for example.

Would HSR to Ottawa and Montreal be a more environmentally sound decision to allowing airlines access to Pickering? Absolutely. Are taxpayers likely to accept the bill of HSR to Ottawa and Montreal? Not as likely. The budget to build HSR is an entirely different ballgame to building a single runway and apron to start Pickering. They aren't going to be building a $2B air terminal there any time soon, and if they did that would be covered by passenger and airline fees the way GTAA does, not the taxpayer. The cost of HSR in the corridor is likely $10B plus at this point. Would I like to see it? Yes. Would it make sense to stop Pickering Airport if that happened? No, because HSR doesn't address the small aircraft / corporate aircraft needs of the GTA. HSR would eliminate the need to build an expensive air terminal and the need for an air-rail link only.

 

[rbt]

You don't build now for 20 years down the road, there will be too much change in the industry. Right now there is consolidation, and more people in the same planes compared to few years ago.

When do you start doing the multi-year EA? Creating the design? Discussing with bankers how much revenue from Pearson is necessary to allow them to issue bonds? Negotiations with the province over highway service which itself will have a multi-year EA and years of construction? Negotiations with the municipality over serwer/water service?

There is easily 5 to 10 years worth of work required before construction can start. Do recall after the EA for Spadina Subway extension was complete that it took many many years just to negotiate how funding of the project would work, and everybody was actually onside with funding it.



Regarding consolidation, Pearson is receiving more aircraft every single year. This is clearly reported in GTAA's quarterly and annual reports. Consolidation is occurring (passengers is increasing faster) but flight count isn't going down nor are there plans by the biggest customers (Air Canada and WestJet) to decrease flights to/from Pearson.


This is negotiations for Big Move funding. The province has a plan to put transit everywhere and intends to ask for federal money (again). The federal government has just expressed an interest in building transit, highway, and other infrastructure which might go to Pickering Airport. Perhaps there is overlap in the plans?

 

[canarob]

For those that say Hamilton can absorb Pearson's overflow I think they are missing a significant point. People who live east of the 404 still have a long commute over to travel out of Pearson. I estimate that there are almost 1 million people living in the Pickering, Oshawa, Whitby, Ajax, East Scarborough, and even Markham region who have an hour plus commute to get to Pearson.

Every time I think about my friends who make this trek I think to my self boy am I glad to be a West ender because for me that commute would be a major barrier

Agreed. Unless growth east of Yonge Street is going to stop, if we build a new airport anywhere, it should be here. I'd be willing to bet that I'll be painfully old by the time I can actually take a cheap commercial flight from Pickering though.

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

In the long-term I expect GTAA will encourage a division between airline alliances with Star Alliance taking over most of Pearson. West Jet, One World, Sky Team, and others would be moved to Pickering. Probably still a few decades out.

Depending on just how much the federal government wants this, we might see a contribution to The Big Move which builds infrastructure to Pickering Airport.

It's kind of ironic how on the one hand this took 40 years and, on the other hand, kind of came out of nowhere. There's clearly a lot of details to be ironed out and, based on the news, the local municipalities and province had nearly no idea the announcement was coming.

It could be tricky getting those smaller carriers to move. Forgetting about the fact that Pearson is Pearson, it's also closer to the border and where all that industry is now. I understand part of the idea is to stimulate growth in the eastern GTA (Oh, where's Jim Flaherty's riding, by the way? People who think Sorbara landed a "subway to nowhere" should take a hard look) but in the short term, there's a big difference between being about 1 hour from the United States and all the way across the city, i Pickering. Would have to be a cheap flight for someone to be willing to fly there, rent a car and visit Niagara Falls, for example.

It's not necessarily Mirabel II but it's still not clear to me it's entirely necessary. I guess it's good they resolved the lands' uncertainty at least.

(Oh, and as far as the feds getting involved in The Big Move, that'd be nice, generally but I would think the 407 Transitway, effectively connecting the 2 airports, is a no-brainer if they're looking for somewhere to spend. It's not like the Conservatives would be shy about spreading some $ around the 905.)

 

[rbt]

It's kind of ironic how on the one hand this took 40 years and, on the other hand, kind of came out of nowhere. There's clearly a lot of details to be ironed out and, based on the news, the local municipalities and province had nearly no idea the announcement was coming.

Yeah, the timing is clearly in response to the upcoming request for Big move funding. Cooperation on this project is going to be their negotiation point.

Perhaps the feds will fund electrification and GO service from Union Station to the segment of the Havelock line which runs through the pickering airport lands?

This service would connect to the existing GO network just south of Agincourt Station and capital money would help add capacity to Lake Shore East and Stouffville lines, which clearly overlaps the provinces plan.

They can fund the entire link with the demand that the Pearson airport train be extended to Pickering via Union Station. It would be much better than the bus between Midway and O'Hare.


Between the Flaherty's reaction to a sales tax bump and this announcement, I'm hoping they federal Conservatives are trying to kick in $4B for Big Move funding while making it seem like they're getting something significant of value. If the money is to buy Ontario's cooperation in building all the infrastructure around a new federal airport, then it's harder for other cities to make a similar request for transit money.


If the Conservatives fund GO to the East, the next federal government might fund part of another large chunk of Big Move projects when surpluses return.

 

[dowlingm]

(EnviroTO) "They aren't going to be building a $2B air terminal there any time soon, and if they did that would be covered by passenger and airline fees the way GTAA does, not the taxpayer." I think we all know there's plenty of cost associated with a project of that magnitude in respect of otherwise unneeded utilities and transportation which will not be counted under that number, let us hope with little expectation that the media will press for the full accounting.

Considering how long YHM has been around it's a bit scandalous that Metrolinx/GO don't make more effort to get connections going to it. With James Street North the A-Line airport route will pass both stations but there might be scope to add some other services as an extension/branch of the McMaster-Aldershot and McMaster/407 routes. If it's easier to get to, people might use it, which would lead to more routes.

Pretty good day for CP mind you. Suddenly the $100m or so they wanted for the Bayview fly-under and the Agincourt yard bypass looks a lot easier to swallow than it did when it was just a choochoo to Peterborough.

 

[dowlingm]

Perhaps the feds will fund electrification and GO service from Union Station to the segment of the Havelock line which runs through the pickering airport lands?

Try this instead - Feds kick in some cash for UPX electrification. Metrolinx put out a tender for new EMUs. Existing DMUs flipped to the CP Don Branch-Agincourt-Havelock route with a new "UPickX" platform at Union.

No fight with CP over electrification on/near their main line and yard, Weston gets electric trains, Metrolinx doesn't have to go through a contract to re-power the DMUs but instead gets to look for an off the shelf high floor EMU (say an updated Bombardier M7 except built in the GTA-Jobs-Programme-For-Northern-Ontario facility), some of the DMUs get run all the way to P'boro to make DDM's dreams come true.

 

[CDL.TO]

That said, I aslo believe that a GA airport at Pickering makes sense to close Buttonville and Oshawa. And heck, a GA airport will actually mean that a lot of greenspace is preserved. I think people forget that had this land not been reserved for an airport, a lot of it would be paved over with subdivisions today.

This actually aligns with my view. I think a new GA airport (perhaps with freight capabilities) makes a lot of sense. I'm just concerned that all the talk from the GTAA and the federal government is talk of a second major airport.

The amount of money that has been spent in London and New York on trying to plan for a single, centralized airport (and that Berlin has spent on building one) should be a lesson to us that a second airport should only be considered once expansion at Pearson is completely maxed out.

 

[dowlingm]

Transport Canada is holding consultations, if you get there between 6 and 8 and have access to a car or quite a bit of patience with public transit transfers.
http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/ontario/pickering-information-2024.html

Has anyone heard anything about the timing of Pearson 05R-23L (sixth runway)? According to the master plan it was supposed to be happening in 2015.

Would be interesting if Oshawa was to close under that model because then the question becomes what does Oshawa City Council do with the land?

 

[kEiThZ]

High speed rail could serve as far as Chicago, NYC, Washington, Boston if we are ambitious enough. Also I think that airlines would cut their flight frequencies between Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal significantly if HSR is built due to lack of passengers, they do not want to fill up valuable slots with tiny planes running low margin short haul flights, so they would cut to every 2 hours, the demand for these flights being mostly from passengers connecting from long haul international flights which run at most a few times a day.

This comment shows a very poor understanding of how airlines function. Several points.

1) Good luck building HSR to Chicago, NYC, Washington and Boston. The political climate in the US is even less favourable to spending on rail than Canada. It's gotten to the point where the Obama administration has now defined "high-speed rail" as rail service with speeds only slightly higher than VIA. At those speeds, we are talking about a 5 hr train ride to Chicago or a 2 hr flight. Air will win every time.

2) Airline schedules and service are largely driven by business customers not by me going to visit a friend or relative. Business travellers are time-sensitive travellers. So in reality, unless there are very extreme constraints on the airport, they will keep their schedules. Were HSR to happen tomorrow to Ottawa and Montreal, you might see some YTZ service cuts, but I highly doubt you'll see any service reductions at YYZ. All you'll see are airlines going to smaller aircraft. So instead of A319s with 120 seats or A320s with 140 seats flying to Ottawa and Montreal, Air Canada would deploy E190s with 93 seats every hour instead.

3) The other big issue with HSR is funding. HSR relies entirely on taxpayer funds for construction and there is always the risk that the service may end up needing a subsidy. An airport requires only a government loan, and user fees will not only pay off the loan, they will actually generate revenue for the Crown. Aside from that is the amounts. A small airport might cost a few hundred million to build. HSR would cost tens of billions to build. What government wants to go to the electorate and pledge to spend tens of billions with no chance of recovery (HSR is profitable on ops but won't payoff the capital invested in any reasonable timeframe) of invested capital in any reasonable timeframe. There are people here who argue about spending a billion on a subway because it won't be "profitable". Imagine that discussion involving the rest of Canada, with more dollars and an even worse capital recovery ratio. I support HSR, but let's be honest, HSR is absolutely no comparison to an airport on capital return.

The last thing we want is to build a huge international airport in the eastern GTA and have all the severe noise problems that we have in northwestern Toronto, northern Mississauga or Brampton. The Pickering airport site is far too close to populated areas. Plus it would attract a lot of the same car dependent business park/industrial sprawl that Pearson has. Pearson still has room for 1 new runway and terminal expansion which has not been built yet. If the airport does get close to capacity, replacing 737/A320 with 787/A350 ought to add quite a bit of new capacity. Or one could start up a "Ryanair Canada" out of Hamilton. Building a general aviation airport is just an excuse to make building a large international easier, Pearson started out as a tiny airport originally.

It's funny. Pickering airport is too close to the population but Pearson and Billy Bishop aren't? Next. You're going to replace A320s with 787s? Seriously? One can be picked up by Air Canada for under $50 million. The other will cost Air Canada well over $100 million and still won't transport twice as many people. That high a capital requirement will also dramatically increase ticket prices. How much more are you willing to pay? And how much more are all your friends and neighbours willing to pay? And how much more do you think people in Ottawa and Montreal would be willing to pay to fly to Toronto?

I don't personally support building a second commercial airport in Pickering. But opponents of the airport had better come up with more sound arguments than these.

Does the province have any say at all in this matter or can the federal government do whatever it wants?

The feds in this case own the land. Transport Canada has been planning an airport there for decades. Hardly a secret. If the province had any interest in stopping this, they would have acquired the land from the feds by now.

 

[kEiThZ]

This actually aligns with my view. I think a new GA airport (perhaps with freight capabilities) makes a lot of sense. I'm just concerned that all the talk from the GTAA and the federal government is talk of a second major airport.

It's PR fluff in my opinion. There just isn't the business case for it. What airlines would want to move there? In reality it'll be an oversized GA airport at start.

We might end up with a small terminal catering to charter flights and short-hops to Ottawa and Montreal. But the latter requires no more infrastructure than what's there at YTZ and even that's a big if. The catchment area of the Pickering airport is 40% farmland. As long as YTZ is around, I would argue that between YYZ running A321s with 180 pax and YTZ running 110 seat CS100s, there is still plenty of capacity in the region to grow short-haul capacity. So I think it'll be a very long time before we see scheduled commercial flights at Pickering. It'll happen at YHM (Hamilton) before it happens at Pickering. Actually, I'm honestly surprised that Hamilton doesn't have more commercial passenger traffic (though they have lots of cargo).

The amount of money that has been spent in London and New York on trying to plan for a single, centralized airport (and that Berlin has spent on building one) should be a lesson to us that a second airport should only be considered once expansion at Pearson is completely maxed out.

It's very interesting to watch the debate in London. You won't find too many people arguing that air traffic should be capped (like you see over here). There is a broad consensus, that London's status as a global city is very much reliant on London being a strong aviation hub for the world. The consensus is broad enough that you have crazy plans like Boris Island which was rumoured to cost 23 billion pounds when fully built out.

Here in Toronto, Air Canada has some ambitions of becoming the next KLM, which a strong focus on connecting Europe to the US, Central and South America. Their fleet buys are positioning them in that direction and once the 787s come in, they'll be launching a whole bunch of new services from Toronto to Africa, India, China, Korea, Japan, and South America:

http://www.aircanada.com/en/about/media/presentations/documents/investor_day_2013.pdf

Slide 57: From Toronto to Accra, Brussels, Delhi, Moscow, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, Seoul, Osaka and Lagos.

It's an amibtion that is supported by the feds largely because of the economic implications of such a strategy for Toronto. Add to this to the fact that so many foreign carriers now have Toronto on their radar. It could just be that, the feds are hoping to make some room in anticipation of all this international traffic growth at YYZ.

 

[kEiThZ]

These people want us to be in the same mess we're in with transit. When the economy losing $6 Billion per year is not the time to take action.

Excellent point.

That said, when I look at Hamilton, I see so much underused potential. Hamilton needs another parallel runway (for GA) and a proper passenger terminal with airbridge, and some re-ordering of taxiways. Why hasn't that investment been made?

Hamilton is also substantially better suited to capture traffic from the western GTA than Pickering. It's catchment area has a higher population than pickering.