Pickering Airport (Transport Canada/GTAA, Proposed)

[kEiThZ]

An international airport in Pickering would cost tens of billions of dollars, and would create massive noise pollution problems similar to those in the western GTA near Pearson.

Pearson is well below maximum capacity anyway. If it were to get near maximum capacity, why not build high speed rail instead? HSR would cost a lot of money, but a new airport would cost a lot of money as well.

I don't get where people get facts. Pearson is not "well below maximum capacity". Sure, it's got room to max out. But there are economic consequences for the entire region if we aren't planning for when Pearson maxes out. Doesn't mean that an airport needs to built in Pickering now or never. But the discussion needs to happen.

And High Speed Rail won't do much to relieve Pearson. There just aren't enough flights to Ottawa, Montreal, Kingston, London and Windsor to make enough of a difference in the decision to build an airport. Any slots saved on domestic flights will likely be taken up by international flights.

Personally, I'd like to can the Pickering airport and tell airlines they have to start planning on upsizing their fleets to serve Pearson. But government needs to tell them that today so that the airlines can start planning for acquisitions 10-20 years down the road.

 

[androiduk]

Pickering Airport

From CBC News;

A new airport in Pickering, Ont., will be constructed on the Pickering Lands, the federal government announced today, ending what the finance minister called "decades of uncertainty" about a parcel of property that has long languished without a plan for its future.

Jim Flaherty characterized the decision to finally break ground on a new airport at the federally owned Pickering Lands as a "responsible, balanced approach" to development of the 18,600-acre property.

"For residents of Durham Region and the GTA, the Harper government is ending decades of uncertainty about the future of the Pickering Lands," Flaherty said. "There will be land for an airport, there will be urban and industrial development and there will be considerable green space on these lands."

The plan is to develop 4,650 acres of the land for the airport, then devote the rest of the space for an urban park and economic development.

The government acquired the Pickering Lands in 1972, but opposition to plans for the green space to be developed for an airport forced the project to be shelved for years.

Building a new airport, particularly in light of the imminent closing of the Buttonville Airport, would position Durham Region as a transportation hub that will spur job creation and energize business development, Flaherty said.

The government conducted a Needs Assessment Study in 2011 that concluded that an additional airport in the region would be needed between 2027 and 2037. The report identified the Pickering Lands as a prime space for such an airport and the government has now focused on the southeast quadrant of the site as appropriate for the facility.

"As we protect land for a future airport, a considerable tract of land will also be made available for job-creating development that will bring new opportunities to Pickering and Durham Region," Flaherty said.

Another 5,000 acres will be reserved for Parks Canada to create what will be known as Rouge National Urban Park — a plot of land that will be more than 13 times the size of Vancouver's Stanley Park.

Environment Minister Peter Kent said the development of a national urban park in the Rouge Valley would be the realization of a vision outlined in the Conservative government's 2012 Economic Action Plan.

"With federal and provincial commitments for lands, we are not one, but two steps closer to creating a true 'Canadian first' with Rouge National Urban Park — a place where nature, culture and agriculture can be protected, appreciated, experienced and supported," Kent said.

Transport Canada plans to meet with stakeholders, businesses and local communities for feedback on the proposed expansion project and management of the Pickering Lands.

The airport is tentatively scheduled to be built by 2027.

 

[kEiThZ]

Yeah, but all I'm talking about is GA. Oshawa less hemmed in than Buttonville ever was and, as you say, people don't seem to be objecting to the GA traffic.
Moreover, if all of this is true, it's pretty crazy that they removed the few million a year subsidy to Buttonville and are now going to spend billions to replace it.

Oshawa is hemmed in. I don't get how people can say Buttonville is hemmed in or argue that the Island is too close to residential and say that Oshawa isn't when there's houses right off the runway. Certainly, whenever I've flown there, I feel it's a lot more hemmed in than YTZ.

My other argument would be that Oshawa airport offers great redevelopment potential. It makes sense to redevelop the land and build an airport that's not close to any residential area, surrounded by more areas that can't be redeveloped.

And there' no way a GA airport will cost "billions". I am not suggesting some massive airport the size of Pearson. More like something slightly bigger than Buttonville, sized sufficiently to close Buttonville and Oshawa. This would still leave the vast, vast majority of the land as protected farmland.

A lot of people wouldn't agree, though, starting with the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. They're counting on it for virtually all of the future demand growth in NYC.

Definitely should be investigated. But I just can't see Nextgen saving many slots at YYZ. NY/NJ has weather issues which do impact Terminal Arrivals. Continuous descent and nextgen will help with that, by increasing throughput in bad weather. We don't have the same issues for Pearson.

The 05/23 twin is already in the plans and they wouldn't even need to rebuild the cargo terminal. I'm talking about the long-term future, and I'd much rather have another independent at Pearson than build a whole new commercial airport on farmland both for the environmental benefits and the service benefits.

Agreed. And ultimately, that's why I don't think the feds should support another major commercial airport. But I do see a good GA airport surrounded by lots of farmland as a pretty useful entity in the region. Particularly if it facilitates the shutdown of Oshawa and Buttonville.

Absolutely, though in practice I'd say that--though I'm a huge supporter of HSR--its effect on airport movements is fairly limited. It's unlikely that Air Canada would give up its hourly Rapidair flights; they'd be more likely to downshift to E-Jets to maintain frequency. I agree that flights like Toronto-London and Toronto-Kingston could be eliminated and replaced with code-shares on HSR.

edit: Then again, travel time to Ottawa would likely be less than two hours. That would make it pretty difficult for the airlines to compete. They might be able to be coaxed into a code-sharing arrangement there too, which would definitely free up some slots.

IMHO, people really overestimate the impact of HSR on flights. What they reduce is origin-destination travel. That's the YTZ crowd. But a lot of YYZ-YOW and YYZ-YUL travel is also connecting traffic. Air Canada and Westjet will always want hourly flights to service these passengers. They also don't want crowding up check-in counters at Pearson. You really have to plan truly integrated HSR to cut back on this traffic. And I've never seen any actual enthusiasm to take HSR to Pearson beyond railfan theories.

So I agree, what we'll see are smaller aircraft with the schedule maintained.

 

[kEiThZ]

Autoroute 15 goes pretty might right to Mirabel. More roads wouldn't have solved anything. You just can't avoid that Mirabel is 55km from Place Ville-Marie (imagine the cab fare!) while Dorval is only 19km.

Marc Dufour is right... in all likelihood Mirabel was an airport killed by the lack of a train.

I think the government should have forced it by closing Dorval. Anything short of that would never have had seen Mirabel become viable.

OK, that may be true, but is there any reason to believe that Pearson is actually nearing capacity?

Depends from what perspective. I think it's possible that Pearson could hit capacity based on air movements. That said, I don't believe there are constraints on the terminal infrastructure or space. So I personally think the government should simply tell the airlines to start planning for airside constraints and to buy bigger airplanes.

That said, I aslo believe that a GA airport at Pickering makes sense to close Buttonville and Oshawa. And heck, a GA airport will actually mean that a lot of greenspace is preserved. I think people forget that had this land not been reserved for an airport, a lot of it would be paved over with subdivisions today.

 

[Swarez99]

Is there a reason Pearson can't grow out to a 40-50-60 Million airport?

Other airports around the world can do it, is there a real reason Pearson can't? The biggest issue to me is we don't have enough airlines in this country to make it a hub. Air Canada got out of Hamilton as fast as it could, and doesn't even do transborder out of Edmonton, they want people to connect through Van or Calg. Can't see them doing Pearson which has many feeders, the island doing Montreal (and prob Ottawa). West Jet is growing, but they have lots of code shares with international airlines that use Pearson. Can't see them moving that much over.

 

[kEiThZ]

Autoroute 15 goes pretty might right to Mirabel. More roads wouldn't have solved anything. You just can't avoid that Mirabel is 55km from Place Ville-Marie (imagine the cab fare!) while Dorval is only 19km.

Marc Dufour is right... in all likelihood Mirabel was an airport killed by the lack of a train.

So is this new airport a full fledged secondary international airport (akin to Newark or LaGuardia in NYC) or is it a small airport that happens to accept international flights?

An international airport is simply one which is defined as a "port of entry", where immigration and customs facilites are available. Size of the airport is irrelevant. Even if all the new airport got was trans-border traffic, it would be an international airport.

 

[kEiThZ]

Autoroute 15 goes pretty might right to Mirabel. More roads wouldn't have solved anything. You just can't avoid that Mirabel is 55km from Place Ville-Marie (imagine the cab fare!) while Dorval is only 19km.

Marc Dufour is right... in all likelihood Mirabel was an airport killed by the lack of a train.

Is there a reason Pearson can't grow out to a 40-50-60 Million airport?

Other airports around the world can do it, is there a real reason Pearson can't? The biggest issue to me is we don't have enough airlines in this country to make it a hub. Air Canada got out of Hamilton as fast as it could, and doesn't even do transborder out of Edmonton, they want people to connect through Van or Calg. Can't see them doing Pearson which has many feeders, the island doing Montreal (and prob Ottawa). West Jet is growing, but they have lots of code shares with international airlines that use Pearson. Can't see them moving that much over.

Pearson can grow. But it'll be constrained, forcing airlines to upsize. I'd like to take that route.

You raise a good point about who would move. I could see the new airport largely catering to charters or discount carriers. Sunwing for example. Or maybe there will be some inducement for Westjet to move its entire operation. All in all though, I still think they should grow Hamilton before they consider building Pickering as a commercial airport.

 

[yyzer]

Good stuff....this is part of a long standing masterplan that goes way back to when Pearson started its revitalization...

The original plan was for Buttonville, and also a small airport in Oshawa, to close...these airports handle mostly small private planes aka 'general aviation'....these 2 airports would be replaced by a single new airport at Pickering..

Pickering would not be like Pearson, there would be no longhaul, intercontinental flights - but there might be limited passenger flights to places like Montreal and Ottawa..

Should be good for the economy of the eastern GTA, although I am sure the usual NIMBYs will be out in force..

 

[andrewpmk]

I don't get where people get facts. Pearson is not "well below maximum capacity". Sure, it's got room to max out. But there are economic consequences for the entire region if we aren't planning for when Pearson maxes out. Doesn't mean that an airport needs to built in Pickering now or never. But the discussion needs to happen.

And High Speed Rail won't do much to relieve Pearson. There just aren't enough flights to Ottawa, Montreal, Kingston, London and Windsor to make enough of a difference in the decision to build an airport. Any slots saved on domestic flights will likely be taken up by international flights.

Personally, I'd like to can the Pickering airport and tell airlines they have to start planning on upsizing their fleets to serve Pearson. But government needs to tell them that today so that the airlines can start planning for acquisitions 10-20 years down the road.

High speed rail could serve as far as Chicago, NYC, Washington, Boston if we are ambitious enough. Also I think that airlines would cut their flight frequencies between Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal significantly if HSR is built due to lack of passengers, they do not want to fill up valuable slots with tiny planes running low margin short haul flights, so they would cut to every 2 hours, the demand for these flights being mostly from passengers connecting from long haul international flights which run at most a few times a day.

The last thing we want is to build a huge international airport in the eastern GTA and have all the severe noise problems that we have in northwestern Toronto, northern Mississauga or Brampton. The Pickering airport site is far too close to populated areas. Plus it would attract a lot of the same car dependent business park/industrial sprawl that Pearson has. Pearson still has room for 1 new runway and terminal expansion which has not been built yet. If the airport does get close to capacity, replacing 737/A320 with 787/A350 ought to add quite a bit of new capacity. Or one could start up a "Ryanair Canada" out of Hamilton. Building a general aviation airport is just an excuse to make building a large international easier, Pearson started out as a tiny airport originally.

 

[rbt]

Is there a reason Pearson can't grow out to a 40-50-60 Million airport?

No, there isn't. This is expected to occur within 20 years at which time another airport had better be ready to go (built, tested, kinks worked out, staffed, and with roadway/train infrastructure in place).

Toronto Island Airport actually absorbed much of the domestic growth over the last 5 years. It is also approaching capacity (within 5 to 10 years).

 

[nfitz]

Since it's a Federal project under Federal authority on lands entirely owned by the Federal government, there's not a lot the province or the municipality can do directly to stop planning and construction. But since the province/municipality control the roads, transit, water/wastewater hookups, etc they can give a hard time. I might expect the City of Pickering and Town of Ajax to resist and even the province to put up some resistance, but not Durham Region which of course controls a lot of those services.

The province gives a hard time?

The feds didn't even bother to tell the province they were going ahead and building the airport. Surely it's the feds that are being difficult here!

Part of the failure of Mirabel, was that the feds built the airport and train station, and expected someone else to build the connecting highways and railway link. Autoroute 13 still hasn't been extended to Mirabel, and the province finally finished one half of the cariageway of Autoroute 50 in 2012. The rail link still consists of nothing more than a roughed in train station in the terminal basement.

I expect Pickering would begin is simply cargo and general aviation. Which is how Mirabel is now. The've been talking about this now for over 40 years. Will Pearson be at capacity in 2027? Who knows what the future holds. Didn't they forecast around 1900 that by 1925, New York City would be drowning in horse manure, with all the population growth?

 

[Swarez99]

No, there isn't. This is expected to occur within 20 years at which time another airport had better be ready to go (built, tested, kinks worked out, staffed, and with roadway/train infrastructure in place).

Toronto Island Airport actually absorbed much of the domestic growth over the last 5 years. It is also approaching capacity (within 5 to 10 years).

Pearson can grow. But it'll be constrained, forcing airlines to upsize. I'd like to take that route.

You raise a good point about who would move. I could see the new airport largely catering to charters or discount carriers. Sunwing for example. Or maybe there will be some inducement for Westjet to move its entire operation. All in all though, I still think they should grow Hamilton before they consider building Pickering as a commercial airport.

You don't build now for 20 years down the road, there will be too much change in the industry. Right now there is consolidation, and more people in the same planes compared to few years ago. If Pearson was say 5 years out from maxing out built it, 20, way to early. Do not need another Hamilton, complete waste of tax dollars. BTW Hamilton is Toronto's Mirable, 3rd busiest cargo airport in the country. I just think if you are going to build it you need an airline commited to base a hub out it. Without a main tenant its doomed. If you are building it for Charters/leisure, don't. Business travelers drive airports, if its the Air Transit/SunWing's of the world, let them go to Hamilton and lets save our billions in taxes. Leisure Travelers in the GTA have shown we will drive to Buffalo, so why not Hamilton, put money to turn it into a leisure/low cost hub a la Gatwick. Plus with our higher cost structure (I assume airport will pay for its own debt, like all other large airports) no real low cost carriers can exist in Canada, especially with a new Airport. So fares won't really go down. The GTAA's biggest expense is debt repayment, and main reason for high landing fee's is it covers its own debts.

If there is a legitimate business demand, Pearson can't grow, the island is maxed out built it. I want to know what the capacity for Pearson is after all its expansions (theirs room there they say) if its 50 Million, well we are 18 Million shy of that how long will it take? Can you bump it 55Million with larger planes? Problem is Governments talk for votes, not for sound policy. Yes I am jaded towards all parties.

 

[gweed123]

An international airport is simply one which is defined as a "port of entry", where immigration and customs facilites are available. Size of the airport is irrelevant. Even if all the new airport got was trans-border traffic, it would be an international airport.

Very true. For a fair amount of time Ottawa's Carp Airport had international airport status. Kanata Tech companies used to use it for charters all the time, so it had a customs office.

 

[pman]

Does the province have any say at all in this matter or can the federal government do whatever it wants?

 

[dowlingm]

Capacity has a number of pinch points:
total passengers (55m pax per annum from what I remember of the Master Plan)
total movements
total passengers on any given day/time of day
max movements on any given day/time of day

If small planes like those doing connecting services to London/Kingston got booted in favour of more jets, possible max pax goes up if the constraint was movements. On the other hand you could see airlines being dissuaded from switching an existing service to a larger plane at certain times of day, being offered incentives instead to add another daily frequency at a quieter time of day. Time will tell.

edit: pman - unless the feds want to build all of the transport connections at their own expense, some kissy kissy with the province will have to happen at some point.