Ontario Northland/Northern Ontario Transportation

[crs1026]

Maybe this is why Metrolinx is involved. Maybe there is plans for something more than just the old Northlander service back in.

I don’t mind a fantasy discussion, but now you’re smoking something.

The decision to pull out of Orillia was monumentally shortsighted, but it’s done. 25 year have passed, and Barrie has vastly improved its waterfront. That investment isn’t about to be undone.

- Paul

 

[christine]

Most of it is intact.



Maybe this is why Metrolinx is involved. Maybe there is plans for something more than just the old Northlander service back in.

Over 30 miles of track was pulled, with another 5-10 to be pulled at some point (Longford to Washago). Some of the former alignment is now owned by private land holders (including Casino Rama), the City of Barrie would be opposed and the Orillia station was recently sold to a private owner just to name a few issues. It's gone. Never coming back.

 

[micheal_can]

I don’t mind a fantasy discussion, but now you’re smoking something.

The decision to pull out of Orillia was monumentally shortsighted, but it’s done. 25 year have passed, and Barrie has vastly improved its waterfront. That investment isn’t about to be undone.

- Paul

I agree that we will never see the entire ROW be returned.

Over 30 miles of track was pulled, with another 5-10 to be pulled at some point (Longford to Washago). Some of the former alignment is now owned by private land holders (including Casino Rama), the City of Barrie would be opposed and the Orillia station was recently sold to a private owner just to name a few issues. It's gone. Never coming back.

Everyone thought the Northlander would not return, yet here we are looking at the return of it. If it could be shown that it is of vital importance, they could take back the old ROW that is still intact and build a new ROW where the sections have been built up and no longer exists. The old ROW will not return as it was was, but it could return back with some of it. When the Northlander comes back, no part of me thinks that it will have an Orillia or Barrie stop. Doesn't mean a decade from it's return that the same will be true.

 

[lenaitch]

I agree that we will never see the entire ROW be returned.



Everyone thought the Northlander would not return, yet here we are looking at the return of it. If it could be shown that it is of vital importance, they could take back the old ROW that is still intact and build a new ROW where the sections have been built up and no longer exists. The old ROW will not return as it was was, but it could return back with some of it. When the Northlander comes back, no part of me thinks that it will have an Orillia or Barrie stop. Doesn't mean a decade from it's return that the same will be true.

That would mean buying up new ROW around Casino Rama, building a new swing bridge, somehow augering a way around the severed portions in the middle of Orillia and completely bypassing downtown Barrie, plus I assume re-purchasing all of the rest. I'm not sure it makes the grade of "vital importance". I'm not sure of the demographics, but anecdotally, I'm not convinced many commute from Orillia to the GTA. It maybe shouldn't have happened, but it did.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

Maybe this is why Metrolinx is involved. Maybe there is plans for something more than just the old Northlander service back in.

I eagerly await the business case to see what is in store for the highly anticipated Northlander sequel.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

Facebook won’t let me share the link, but ONTC is currently replacing jointed rail with continuous-weld rail near Cobalt. Probably just generally an improvement for running trains, but it would also greatly benefit passenger rail.

 

[micheal_can]

That would mean buying up new ROW around Casino Rama, building a new swing bridge, somehow augering a way around the severed portions in the middle of Orillia and completely bypassing downtown Barrie, plus I assume re-purchasing all of the rest. I'm not sure it makes the grade of "vital importance". I'm not sure of the demographics, but anecdotally, I'm not convinced many commute from Orillia to the GTA. It maybe shouldn't have happened, but it did.

You are assuming it will be built all at once. I am thinking they will find a route that will connect Orillia to Barrie. After that, they may try to go to Washago. It will be at that time that the Northlander may move over.

I eagerly await the business case to see what is in store for the highly anticipated Northlander sequel.

Same here. I am tryign to not go into fantasy, but merely speculating options that could happen.

Facebook won’t let me share the link, but ONTC is currently replacing jointed rail with continuous-weld rail near Cobalt. Probably just generally an improvement for running trains, but it would also greatly benefit passenger rail.

View attachment 308276

I saw that too. The timing doesn't make sense. It is too close to the time to the test. My thinking it was planned for the spring, and spring has sprung.

 

[lenaitch]

You are assuming it will be built all at once. I am thinking they will find a route that will connect Orillia to Barrie. After that, they may try to go to Washago. It will be at that time that the Northlander may move over.

[/QUOTE]

You are free to look at the geography and topography of the area (hint: the 'Oro Morraine', while not Rockies, is a abrupt enough to host ski hills) and consider a reasonable and cost effective routing to a city of ~31K that has grown a grand total of 2K since 2001 (an unknown number of which commute out to area on a regular basis).

Same here. I am tryign to not go into fantasy, but merely speculating options that could happen.

That bridge was crossed a long time ago.

 

[micheal_can]

I know the topography isn't easy. However, that doesn't mean it cannot be done. Give me a little bit and I may find a route that might work.

 

[Allandale25]

Another view of the test earlier this month.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1376095214557872128

 

[micheal_can]

Orllia GO - Google My Maps

From he Barrie Line north to Orillia and to Washago

www.google.com

I told you to give me a bit and I would come up with something. South of Orillia, the ROW is intact till you get to the edge of Barrie. The distance across Kemptenfelt Bay is about 2km Maybe a bridge to link them? Obviously it would need to be high enough to allow sailboats to clear, but maybe that would work?

... I'm not done. That is just my initial thought. Give me a little bit longer and I may find a new ROW around Barrie.

 

[christine]

Orllia GO - Google My Maps

From he Barrie Line north to Orillia and to Washago

www.google.com

I told you to give me a bit and I would come up with something. South of Orillia, the ROW is intact till you get to the edge of Barrie. The distance across Kemptenfelt Bay is about 2km Maybe a bridge to link them? Obviously it would need to be high enough to allow sailboats to clear, but maybe that would work?

... I'm not done. That is just my initial thought. Give me a little bit longer and I may find a new ROW around Barrie.

Because I'm bored I decided to assess some of the fantasy. I'm not even touching GO to Orillia because I'll deal with that another time.

'Barrie Bypass' Purple Line
- Goes through rougly $20 million in assessed properties.
- Metrolinx says grade separation (bridges) can vary between $25 million - $100 million.. There are three - Bayfield ($25 million) + Penetanguishene Road ($25 million) + Highway 400 ($50 million) = $100 million.I am lowballing the Highway 400 crossing since this area was already redone recently and there is a river crossing int he same location.
- Seven at grade crossings (no idea the cost)
- $100 + $20 = $120 million. Properties could be annexed but the land assessments that Simcoe has on file could actually be lower than what one could argue.
- 17.4 miles will have to be laid. I'm sure if I bothered I could find out the amount Metrolinx says a mile of track costs. It isn't cheap though.

Complications
- Use of CP's main line for several miles. That line has so much traffic that I was surprised that GO even entertained the idea of an initial analysis of a Bolton line a decade ago. That's a no go.
- My assessed values is based upon what Simcoe County has on file. Value could actually be higher for a number of properties
- I didn't even look at the Meaford Sub and Penetang Spur. Lots of money there just for upgrade alone.
- Didn't look for culverts
- This line goes through some seriously environmental sensitive areas. Enough so that it would not fly just for that reason alone.

Newmarket Sub former ROW (Orange+Green)
- Goes through or uses around $25 million in assessed properties.
- At least one grade-separated crossing that still exists from 1997 (Highway 12), so that's a free pass.
- Twenty-five at grade crossings
- Swing Bridge in Orillia
- 22 miles of rail will have to be laid.

Complications:
- Didn't look for culverts
- The Longford-Washago segment is to be abandoned at some point..
- Cost of the Orillia station is included in the asssesed amount $25 million but would require upgrades on its own

I'm sure I'm missing a bunch of stuff but I already wasted 30 minutes typing this all out so. This is an expensive project to keep the North Bay seat blue.

 

[Allandale25]

^ Where do you get the stat for the $20 million in assessed property from?

 

[micheal_can]

Because I'm bored I decided to assess some of the fantasy. I'm not even touching GO to Orillia because I'll deal with that another time.

'Barrie Bypass' Purple Line
- Goes through rougly $20 million in assessed properties.
- Metrolinx says grade separation (bridges) can vary between $25 million - $100 million.. There are three - Bayfield ($25 million) + Penetanguishene Road ($25 million) + Highway 400 ($50 million) = $100 million.I am lowballing the Highway 400 crossing since this area was already redone recently and there is a river crossing int he same location.
- Seven at grade crossings (no idea the cost)
- $100 + $20 = $120 million. Properties could be annexed but the land assessments that Simcoe has on file could actually be lower than what one could argue.
- 17.4 miles will have to be laid. I'm sure if I bothered I could find out the amount Metrolinx says a mile of track costs. It isn't cheap though.

Complications
- Use of CP's main line for several miles. That line has so much traffic that I was surprised that GO even entertained the idea of an initial analysis of a Bolton line a decade ago. That's a no go.
- My assessed values is based upon what Simcoe County has on file. Value could actually be higher for a number of properties
- I didn't even look at the Meaford Sub and Penetang Spur. Lots of money there just for upgrade alone.
- Didn't look for culverts
- This line goes through some seriously environmental sensitive areas. Enough so that it would not fly just for that reason alone.

Newmarket Sub former ROW (Orange+Green)
- Goes through or uses around $25 million in assessed properties.
- At least one grade-separated crossing that still exists from 1997 (Highway 12), so that's a free pass.
- Twenty-five at grade crossings
- Swing Bridge in Orillia
- 22 miles of rail will have to be laid.

Complications:
- Didn't look for culverts
- The Longford-Washago segment is to be abandoned at some point..
- Cost of the Orillia station is included in the asssesed amount $25 million but would require upgrades on its own

I'm sure I'm missing a bunch of stuff but I already wasted 30 minutes typing this all out so. This is an expensive project to keep the North Bay seat blue.

Good assessment.
TBH I don't expect anything north of Orillia to happen any time soon. The sections south, though, could already be on some drawing board. I'd bet that Mertolinx has some preliminary plans of how to get to Orillia with GO. I fully expect that once GO's ridership returns to pre-covid numbers that this could be about 10 years away from then. The question would be whether the Northlander would cross over to this line if it ever got built. I would expect it would.

It was pointed out that it would be impossible. I found a way to do most of it, with a 17km section that would need to be new ROW. The rest is mainly there and might be possible to use. So, not that impossible.

As far as from today, when we would see the Northlander pass through Orillia? At best, 15-20 years.

 

[christine]

^ Where do you get the stat for the $20 million in assessed property from?

Simcoe Maps has it.

The sections south, though, could already be on some drawing board. I'd bet that Mertolinx has some preliminary plans of how to get to Orillia with GO.

They do not. They did not when Peterson promised it in the 1990 election (only politicians mentioned it, GO had not studied it even when the rail corridor was still available). Orillia GO rail service will never happen.

It was pointed out that it would be impossible. I found a way to do most of it, with a 17km section that would need to be new ROW. The rest is mainly there and might be possible to use. So, not that impossible.

You did it without any environmental or planning considerations. And if cost is no object anything could be possible. I could draw a line across from Kempenfelt Bay to Orillia and it would be even less than 17 km. I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone suggest burying the line under Barrie until outside city limits. In any case it's too late, the Northlander (or whatever the successor will be named) will never serve Orillia or Barrie again.