Le Gique
Active Member
why can't we all just... agree on where the subways should go?
seems to me the metrolinx exercise may instigate some putting-or-shutting-up 'round the transit water-cooler...
who here wants X transit technology to be built where the projected ridership numbers are too low to justify the cost? hands up.
in general terms, you don't build LRT where BRT will do. you don't build subway where LRT is sufficient. nobody will say they want to waste money.
it's also irresponsible to under-build capacity too.
then can we shift the debate to how to credibly estimate potential ridership numbers...?
a credible estimate depends on projected work/live density along the corridor and projected volumes of feeder lines, etc.
that gets tricky -- and so much also depends on shifting political realities of zoning and funding
this doesn't even get into how long are the projections... two decades? three? the existing Spadina line is almost 30 years old -- is it close to capacity?
these numbers are too complicated for anyone to do in their heads -- although that doesn't stop us from extrapolating that a BRT or LRT or subway is best (and then smacking somebody else who is likewise projecting numbers from their gut feelings and coming up with a different mode...)
it's up to the gang involved in Metrolinx to compare choices of technology with trustworthy ridership figures, not the highly-debatable (but rarely quoted) numbers that "justified" some of the stuff already in the pipeline before MO 2020
if we get this data and mostly agree it's good, then the job is to estimate how much has changed since transit city came out -- how much more money will Metrolinx leverage?
how much more intestinal fortitude will politicians locate in order to see real density come to corridors proposed for expansion?
alas, it's loads more fun to fling our crystal balls around instead of searching for real numbers...
seems to me the metrolinx exercise may instigate some putting-or-shutting-up 'round the transit water-cooler...
who here wants X transit technology to be built where the projected ridership numbers are too low to justify the cost? hands up.
in general terms, you don't build LRT where BRT will do. you don't build subway where LRT is sufficient. nobody will say they want to waste money.
it's also irresponsible to under-build capacity too.
then can we shift the debate to how to credibly estimate potential ridership numbers...?
a credible estimate depends on projected work/live density along the corridor and projected volumes of feeder lines, etc.
that gets tricky -- and so much also depends on shifting political realities of zoning and funding
this doesn't even get into how long are the projections... two decades? three? the existing Spadina line is almost 30 years old -- is it close to capacity?
these numbers are too complicated for anyone to do in their heads -- although that doesn't stop us from extrapolating that a BRT or LRT or subway is best (and then smacking somebody else who is likewise projecting numbers from their gut feelings and coming up with a different mode...)
it's up to the gang involved in Metrolinx to compare choices of technology with trustworthy ridership figures, not the highly-debatable (but rarely quoted) numbers that "justified" some of the stuff already in the pipeline before MO 2020
if we get this data and mostly agree it's good, then the job is to estimate how much has changed since transit city came out -- how much more money will Metrolinx leverage?
how much more intestinal fortitude will politicians locate in order to see real density come to corridors proposed for expansion?
alas, it's loads more fun to fling our crystal balls around instead of searching for real numbers...