Oct 10 Ontario Election: Predict the Result

[Jdot]

I voted NDP and I voted NO.
I guess I buck the trend???

I thought it would be opposite to what you said cacruden. I thought that the public was uninformed about MMP, and for that reason would vote FOR it. It is my view that the general public is unsatisfied with FPTP, so when faced with a question of keeping the current system or going to a new system that they know nothing about, I thought the general public would have "tried out" the new system. I guess I was wrong. Either people knew more about MMP than I thought and didnt like it, or they didnt know anything about it, and decided to stick with the devil they know rather than the devil they dont.

 

[AndreaPalladio]

I think the public knew what they were voting for, and voted for what they wanted. For all it's supposed faults, FPTP is easily understood: the candidate with the largest number of votes wins. People don't want to vote for parties, they want to vote for people, to represent them. Most people I spoke to were going to vote no to MMP because they didn't want to see the front bench of every party filled with people who were there to represent the party leader.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

I think the public knew what they were voting for, and voted for what they wanted. For all it's supposed faults, FPTP is easily understood: the candidate with the largest number of votes wins. People don't want to vote for parties, they want to vote for people, to represent them. Most people I spoke to were going to vote no to MMP because they didn't want to see the front bench of every party filled with people who were there to represent the party leader.

this is the problem with the green party IMO. their candidates need to get involved more with local issues and be more vocal in their ridings. i voted based on performance of my local candidate in my riding. it all boiled down to who cared more about local issues, even though i felt that issues relating to me and people similar to me could have been better addressed. the green party relies too much on their name to get elected. just because the package says organic, some of us aren't gonna by the product based on that. and to be fair, they are the 4th party of ontario and need better representation in the media. then they won't need MMP.

 

[syn]

I understood it, and I voted NO. I actually think a lot of people understood what they were voting on... they just did not think it was the best solution.

The only people pushing one side or the other was the pro-MMP group, they had people out in the financial core on a regular basis.

Assuming it failed because everyone was uninformed and uneducated -- just because a result did not go your way is sour grapes (IMHO). I constantly heard people debating the merits of YES/NO for that question at work.

Maybe the reason why the Green party did not get elected because everyone is uninformed and uneducated (as well)

I believe the results worked out close to what I figured would happen -- the NDP/Green's etc voted for MMP; those supporting the Liberals and Conservatives tended to vote no....

I didn't say everyone was uniformed and uneducated. I said the Ontario Citizens' Assembly did a bad job of educating the public and chose a very bad time to hold a referendum. No doubt many people knew what they were voting for, but I spoke to quite a few people who voted "No" simply because they weren't familiar with what was being proposed.

 

[cacruden]

I voted NDP and I voted NO.
I guess I buck the trend???

Probably. Whenever someone said whether they voted for or against MMP, I asked which party they usually support. From my poll sample, I found that those that regularly supported Liberal and Conservative were more often to say no to MMP, and those that supported the NDP were more often to vote yes to MMP.... To be quite honest, I could not get a real handle on Green party support since most of the people that I talked to -- did not seem to be "die-hard" greens (if there is that many of them). A number of people would say, I vote Liberal/Conservative usually - but Green this time. My poll sample did not have anyone that said they regularly vote NDP but are voting Green this time. I figured that like the NDP, they would more likely support MMP though (but no real data to back that one up).

 

[St. Even]

I didn't say everyone was uniformed and uneducated. I said the Ontario Citizens' Assembly did a bad job of educating the public and chose a very bad time to hold a referendum. No doubt many people knew what they were voting for, but I spoke to quite a few people who voted "No" simply because they weren't familiar with what was being proposed.

I think the media also did a lousy job of informing people on the referendum issue. Too distracted by the schools issue.

Just think, if the MMP system were in place with yesterday's results, we probably would have had a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power, and the Greens with about a half-dozen seats. Instead, we have two-thirds of the seats held by a party who won just over 40 per cent of the vote. It's just not right. I won't lose any sleep over it, but it's not a fair outcome.

I hope this referendum wasn't the end of the reform process. And I hope next time, there will be more than one option, and a concerted public education campaign.

 

[cacruden]

I think the media also did a lousy job of informing people on the referendum issue. Too distracted by the schools issue.

Just think, if the MMP system were in place with yesterday's results, we probably would have had a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power, and the Greens with about a half-dozen seats. Instead, we have two-thirds of the seats held by a party who won just over 40 per cent of the vote. It's just not right. I won't lose any sleep over it, but it's not a fair outcome.

I hope this referendum wasn't the end of the reform process. And I hope next time, there will be more than one option, and a concerted public education campaign.

Hmmm, as you said, under the MMP the NDP would be holding the balance of power -- is that government representative -- is that fair... IMHO no.

All of the Liberal members won their riding.... that sounds fair to me. Any responsible member of parliament will represent the wishes of their riding (as per local consensus) -- not just the people that elected him.

 

[syn]

Hmmm, as you said, under the MMP the NDP would be holding the balance of power -- is that government representative -- is that fair... IMHO no.

All of the Liberal members won their riding.... that sounds fair to me. Any responsible member of parliament will represent the wishes of their riding (as per local consensus) -- not just the people that elected him.

The problem is that party policy is not often dictated by local affairs.

 

[syn]

I think the media also did a lousy job of informing people on the referendum issue. Too distracted by the schools issue.

Just think, if the MMP system were in place with yesterday's results, we probably would have had a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power, and the Greens with about a half-dozen seats. Instead, we have two-thirds of the seats held by a party who won just over 40 per cent of the vote. It's just not right. I won't lose any sleep over it, but it's not a fair outcome.

I hope this referendum wasn't the end of the reform process. And I hope next time, there will be more than one option, and a concerted public education campaign.

I think with the MMP system people would've taken elections a lot more seriously. There are many who don't vote simply because they feel it's a waste...or they vote for one of the two leading parties because they feel their vote would be wasted on a lesser party.

It certainly isn't perfect but I think it would've been an improvement. Oh well.

 

[cacruden]

The problem is that party policy is not often dictated by local affairs.

Party policy usually is a mix of interests. It can be part of the platform drawn up at a party convention (some things). It can be driven by what the Leader thinks is the right policy, and driven from the top down.... and sometimes.... it is driven through caucus (which is made up of all the members for that party). In the last case (which will typically never be aired publicly) -- ordinary backbench members can make a difference -- especially if they can show their local constituents are strongly making their opinions known.

 

[St. Even]

Hmmm, as you said, under the MMP the NDP would be holding the balance of power -- is that government representative -- is that fair... IMHO no.

All of the Liberal members won their riding.... that sounds fair to me. Any responsible member of parliament will represent the wishes of their riding (as per local consensus) -- not just the people that elected him.

Actually, I do think it would be a fairer outcome. The Liberals and NDP combined garnered 58 per cent of the vote (42 + 17 respectively). What could be more fair or more accurately representative of the actual results than a Liberal minority government (they got less than 50 per cent, so that seems fair) having to work with another party that when combined with their support represents more than half of the actual vote? That's democracy 101.

We're obviously not going to agree and I'm not trying to convert you to an idea that's now dead anyway. I just don't do not see for the life of me, and I've tried to keep an open mind, how people can think that giving majority status to a party supported by a minority of people (yes, 42 per cent is still a minority) is fair or representative. When's there's no clear majority of popular support, as there was in Newfoundland this week, you'd have to hit me hard, repeatedly, over the head, to convince me that it is "fair" to give all that power to a party that more people voted against than for. And to completely shut out a party that got a full eight per cent of the vote....I don't think that's consistent with basic democratic principles. At all.

The proposed MMP was not perfect, by a long shot, but I think it would have been a H-U-G-E improvement on our current punitive process.

 

[adma]

I believe the results worked out close to what I figured would happen -- the NDP/Green's etc voted for MMP; those supporting the Liberals and Conservatives tended to vote no....

Not necessarily. Peter Kormos was reelected in a landslide in Welland, yet they voted something like 2/3 FPTP. Likewise, it bombed in the NDP-leaning North...

 

[Canuck]

I just don't see the logic in a system where the majority of those (who bothered) voting, voted against one party, and yet that party wins a massive victory.

I hope MMP can come back within the next few years. If not the version we had, then some modified form that produces a house representative of the percentage of votes a party received.

 

[salvius]

^ it's probably not wrong to assume that up to 50% of the ballots once again elected nobody... How anyone can find that acceptable, I've no idea. I've a lot of respect for BC where STV, a much more complicated system, was at least met with some understanding and actually almost got the super majority required to pass it. While BCers complained about the lack of inofrmation, the big difference is that even the parties were willing to talk about it. The only thing we were willing to talk about was about funding of religious schools...

The newspapers also all pretty much came dead against the idea; even Toronto Star vehemently opposed it, which I found somewhat strange.

 

[JasonParis]

The newspapers also all pretty much came dead against the idea; even Toronto Star vehemently opposed it, which I found somewhat strange.

The Star's editorial board has been getting stranger by the month.