News   Sep 27, 2021
 718     1 
News   Sep 27, 2021
 639     1 
News   Sep 27, 2021
 417     0 

Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

Northern Light

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
May 20, 2007
Messages
14,578
Reaction score
27,706
Location
Toronto/EY
A little perspective is a useful thing.

Current estimated death toll from novel Corona Virus ~50

Estimated death toll from influenza in a typical year can range as high as 80,000 in the U.S. alone; and between 290,000 and north of 600,000 globally.


Known mortality rate of Corona Virus to date ~ 4%

Peak mortality rate for influenza, during peak of season, as high as 10%.

SARS was 20%

For further contrast.......270,000 pedestrians die in car accidents each year.


Now, I don't want to underplay this at all.

This could still be quite serious, and needless to say has been for those who have been infected and have suffered, are suffering or in pain, as well as those who have died; along with many more considerably inconvenienced.

It certainly has the potential to spread or mutate or otherwise become a more pressing issue.

But anything resembling panic about it here, is certainly premature.
 

Johnny Au

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 4, 2010
Messages
7,733
Reaction score
4,865
Location
Near the North York, York, & Old Toronto tripoint
Over 80 died from the Wuhan coronavirus so far.

The current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo killed over 2200 people and is ongoing.

Both are dangerous, yet mainstream news didn't report on the current Ebola outbreak as much as the Wuhan coronavirus, despite the Ebola outbreak killing much more people than the Wuhan coronavirus so far (though to be fair, the current Ebola outbreak began in 2018).
 

jje1000

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
4,839
Reaction score
2,331
The issue is also whether you can trust the CCP’s numbers or not.

Even if you do, the issue is contextual- why are they essentially shutting down parts of Beijing and other cities (even Shanghai is affected), and imposing what’s probably the largest quarantine in modern history if this is nothing more than the common flu?

Why ruin CNY celebrations and risk the economy over this? Something may not be lining up here.
 
Last edited:

Admiral Beez

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 28, 2007
Messages
9,860
Reaction score
3,589
Over 80 died from the Wuhan coronavirus so far.

The current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo killed over 2200 people and is ongoing.

Both are dangerous, yet mainstream news didn't report on the current Ebola outbreak as much as the Wuhan coronavirus, despite the Ebola outbreak killing much more people than the Wuhan coronavirus so far (though to be fair, the current Ebola outbreak began in 2018).
Ebola is perceived as an African, exotic disease that is believed to be easily avoided by not going to Africa and by avoiding contact with the very few people who may fly from the Congo to Canada. Corona is from China, the epicentre of SARS, in a country that is known to lie, prevaricate and obstruct, where thousands fly every day from China to Canada. Then there’s the Chinese predilection for wearing facial masks in public, making western people rather nervous - are they trying to protect themselves from us, or us from them? Those masks serve as a beacon of attention and worry - looks like a scene from a scifi flick.

surgical-mask.png
 

Jasmine18

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Oct 21, 2016
Messages
1,779
Reaction score
518
Yeah, I'll rely on the usual experts to keep me informed and should they fail I shall rely on my decently robust immune system and should that fail....well, we all have to die sometime.


Well this could be all avoided if some morons did not think it was a good idea to eat raw bat soup.

The Flu exists but this occurred due to a very unsanitary and stupid idea of eating raw meat of exotic animals that is kept in very unsanitary manner.


Yes this disease is no Black Death but I think we have to be vigilant. If The disease mutates and has a higher death rate like SARS or MERS but is as contagious as it now it has the potential to kill many people
 

AlvinofDiaspar

Moderator
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 22, 2007
Messages
30,623
Reaction score
22,230
Location
Toronto
Well this could be all avoided if some morons did not think it was a good idea to eat raw bat soup.

The Flu exists but this occurred due to a very unsanitary and stupid idea of eating raw meat of exotic animals that is kept in very unsanitary manner.

Yes this disease is no Black Death but I think we have to be vigilant. If The disease mutates and has a higher death rate like SARS or MERS but is as contagious as it now it has the potential to kill many people

There is nothing to indicate that this incident has anything to do with the image of the bat soup circulating online (pure shock value). Also, exotics are risky and a probable cause of this outbreak, but by it no means the only source of disease (swine and avian flus are from domesticated pigs and chickens; bovine spongiform encephalopathy from domesticated cows, etc.)

Ebola is perceived as an African, exotic disease that is believed to be easily avoided by not going to Africa and by avoiding contact with the very few people who may fly from the Congo to Canada. Corona is from China, the epicentre of SARS, in a country that is known to lie, prevaricate and obstruct, where thousands fly every day from China to Canada. Then there’s the Chinese predilection for wearing facial masks in public, making western people rather nervous - are they trying to protect themselves from us, or us from them? Those masks serve as a beacon of attention and worry - looks like a scene from a scifi flick.

Actually wearing face mask in public originated in Japan, not China - and it was done first and foremost as a courtesy to avoid spreading the illness to others when someone is sick. And of course in China there is another very good reason (beyond what's covered) - pollution.

And the only reason why we aren't having this conversation about Ebola is that it isn't transmittable in the same way as SARS or nCoV and not because of any superiority in governance.

AoD
 
Last edited:

Jasmine18

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Oct 21, 2016
Messages
1,779
Reaction score
518
There is zero risk in Canada in getting Ebola

However, the chances of the Virus in Canada spreading are likely very high.

That is why its a different news story.
 

AlvinofDiaspar

Moderator
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 22, 2007
Messages
30,623
Reaction score
22,230
Location
Toronto
There is zero risk in Canada in getting Ebola
However, the chances of the Virus in Canada spreading are likely very high.
That is why its a different news story.

The risk is never zero even for something like Ebola. There are no indications that the risk of uncontrolled community transmission in Canada is very high - the risk of getting more imported cases with limited transmission (e.g. the 2nd case) is another thing entirely.

AoD
 

lenaitch

Senior Member
Member Bio
Joined
Sep 5, 2017
Messages
3,292
Reaction score
2,973
The issue is also whether you can trust the CCP’s numbers or not.

Even if you do, the issue is contextual- why are they essentially shutting down parts of Beijing and other cities (even Shanghai is affected), and imposing what’s probably the largest quarantine in modern history if this is nothing more than the common flu?

Why ruin CNY celebrations and risk the economy over this? Something may not be lining up here.

Perhaps because they can control society to such a massive degree, and those who have power often feel they must wield it (when you only have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail).
Perhaps because it's similarity to the flu might be over simplifying the issue. Most of us have developed various immunity levels to many viruses either through exposure or inoculation. Just because someone didn't get full blown flu symptoms but only minor ones may mean that they contracted a strain of the virus but their immune system beat it down. The CV appears to be such a new strain that the fear is no one has any level of immunity to it.
The death toll in China may or may not be reflective of a general level of health in the population (although you'd think with the exposure to substances one sees in images of the Wuhan market they'd have a fairly healthy immune system based on exposure). Of, course, simple population density might be playing into the state's actions as the potential for things to go really sideways really quickly seems fairly high.

Interesting about the influenza mortality rate in the US. Their health care system is complex compared to ours and I don't profess to understand it, but the poor and elderly has access to Medicaid, which covers the vaccines, as do most health plans, but some sources say approximately 33 millions are caught in the middle with no insurance. Vaccine costs seem to vary widely, although not horrendously expensive (recognizing that is a relative term). Perhaps lack of health education, mistrust of government institutions, general anti-vax views, poverty levels/living conditions,etc. are part of it.
 

Northern Light

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
May 20, 2007
Messages
14,578
Reaction score
27,706
Location
Toronto/EY
Interesting about the influenza mortality rate in the US. Their health care system is complex compared to ours and I don't profess to understand it, but the poor and elderly has access to Medicaid, which covers the vaccines, as do most health plans, but some sources say approximately 33 millions are caught in the middle with no insurance. Vaccine costs seem to vary widely, although not horrendously expensive (recognizing that is a relative term). Perhaps lack of health education, mistrust of government institutions, general anti-vax views, poverty levels/living conditions,etc. are part of it.

Worthy saying here.

Medicaid serves only the poorest of the poor. The income cut-off for coverage is $1,426 in monthly income, under $18,000 a year (except in the case of severe disability)

Medicare (the Seniors Plan) which generally has substantial co-pays, does, generally, cover the full cost of the flu shot.

The U.S. system(s) also have CHIRP (the Children's Health Insurance Plan, and dedicated coverages for military vets.

Medicaid does not pay for the Flu Shot for healthy adults who are over 18 and under 65.
 

AlvinofDiaspar

Moderator
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 22, 2007
Messages
30,623
Reaction score
22,230
Location
Toronto
Also flu shots are perceived less as a "must have" and more as an "ought to have" especially if you are elderly or immunocompromised. I doubt the cost have much to do with the upper or middle class not getting it.

AoD
 

Northern Light

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
May 20, 2007
Messages
14,578
Reaction score
27,706
Location
Toronto/EY
Media coverage of this is annoying to me.

Overly focused on things of little concern (currently), such as the local cases; under concerned with examining things we don't know yet and should, or may need to prepare for...

What I would like to know; do we have evidence on transmissibility from inanimate objects to humans? How long does the virus survive when exposed to air? (HIV, for instance dies nearly instantly).

The importance of this info is not for our day to day lives here, at this point; its for considering what to do about shipments of goods from China, that were produced/packaged within days prior to, or since patient zero.

If there is no concern, excellent! If there is concern, the potential for massive supply chain disruptions is enormous.

Some of that can be lived with, but may require amended EI programs to cover some layoffs.

But impacts to critical items such as food, medical supplies, or essential electronic components for things will need a sourcing strategy.

I don't want to sound at all hyperbolic as I'm not sure there is any such risk, nor will there be; but we really ought to have a strategy if there is any indication of risk at all.
 

AlvinofDiaspar

Moderator
Member Bio
Joined
Apr 22, 2007
Messages
30,623
Reaction score
22,230
Location
Toronto
Media coverage of this is annoying to me.

Overly focused on things of little concern (currently), such as the local cases; under concerned with examining things we don't know yet and should, or may need to prepare for...

What I would like to know; do we have evidence on transmissibility from inanimate objects to humans? How long does the virus survive when exposed to air? (HIV, for instance dies nearly instantly).

The importance of this info is not for our day to day lives here, at this point; its for considering what to do about shipments of goods from China, that were produced/packaged within days prior to, or since patient zero.

If there is no concern, excellent! If there is concern, the potential for massive supply chain disruptions is enormous.

Some of that can be lived with, but may require amended EI programs to cover some layoffs.

But impacts to critical items such as food, medical supplies, or essential electronic components for things will need a sourcing strategy.

I don't want to sound at all hyperbolic as I'm not sure there is any such risk, nor will there be; but we really ought to have a strategy if there is any indication of risk at all.

To be fair, CBC did have specialists answering some of these questions:


Not to say that there aren't other issues even if contamination of product is unlikely:


AoD
 

Northern Light

Superstar
Member Bio
Joined
May 20, 2007
Messages
14,578
Reaction score
27,706
Location
Toronto/EY
This answer is still a problem.

Hota said that we don't know how long the new coronavirus lives on surfaces — and that its lifespan likely depends on the surface.

We need to know that answer, sooner than rather than later.
 

Top