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Next Mayor of Toronto?

Regardless of growth, the old City of Toronto still makes up less than a quarter of the city.

Growth figures can be surprising, too. For example (from 2001 to 2006):
  • Ward 28 (Toronto Centre South) shrank by 0.4%
  • Ward 30 (Toronto-Danforth South) shrank by 6.9%
  • Ward 19 (Trinity Spadina West) shrank by 1.2%
  • Ward 18 (Davenport South) shrank by 7.2%
  • Ward 17 (Davenport North) shrank by 5.8%
  • Ward 14 (Parkdale East) shrank by 7.7%

Only Trinity Spadina East and Toronto Centre North grew significantly, by 16.3% and 9.5% respectively.

By contrast, ward 42 (Scarborough Rouge River East) grew by 24.6%. It also has 20,000 more people than the average downtown ward. Ward 23 (Willowdale West) grew by 29%.
 
kettal said:
Do the suburbs really hold enough people to elect a mayor? Since the Lastman era, the population growth of the city has shifted heavily towards downtown.
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But a different sort of demographic is now moving downtown ie. young professionals which might just negate the traditional social activist & union vote in parts of the downtown area.
 
unimaginative2 said:
I wouldn't underestimate Sarah Thompson, either. I don't know much about her but I think that an outsider image might appeal to a lot of people. She might also benefit from being the only female candidate.
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Outsider is an understatement. She knows nothing about Toronto. I guarantee, if you pulled out a map and asked her to point to where Flemingdon Park is, she will say "I don't know".
 
unimaginative2 said:
Regardless of growth, the old City of Toronto still makes up less than a quarter of the city.

Growth figures can be surprising, too. For example (from 2001 to 2006):
  • Ward 28 (Toronto Centre South) shrank by 0.4%
  • Ward 30 (Toronto-Danforth South) shrank by 6.9%
  • Ward 19 (Trinity Spadina West) shrank by 1.2%
  • Ward 18 (Davenport South) shrank by 7.2%
  • Ward 17 (Davenport North) shrank by 5.8%
  • Ward 14 (Parkdale East) shrank by 7.7%

Only Trinity Spadina East and Toronto Centre North grew significantly, by 16.3% and 9.5% respectively.

By contrast, ward 42 (Scarborough Rouge River East) grew by 24.6%. It also has 20,000 more people than the average downtown ward. Ward 23 (Willowdale West) grew by 29%.
Click to expand...

Well this pretty much conflicts with any number of news articles I've read claiming downtown is the fastest growing area in the city for the past decade.

e.g.
http://www.thestar.com/News/GTA/article/270694

And I have no doubt that a lot more growth happened between 2006 to 2010. I've read that there will be 50,000 new residents added to downtown in 2010 alone.
 
kettal said:
Well this pretty much conflicts with any number of news articles I've read claiming downtown is the fastest growing area in the city for the past decade.

e.g.
http://www.thestar.com/News/GTA/article/270694

And I have no doubt that a lot more growth happened between 2006 to 2010. I've read that there will be 50,000 new residents added to downtown in 2010 alone.
Click to expand...

Read that article again. For example.......

"Still, downtown growth was dramatic: 17,000 housing units were built in the area between 2001 and 2006. The downtown population stood at nearly 169,000 last year, up from 102,000 five years earlier"
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Seeing that the article is from 07, and they attribute an increase of 69,000 residents over roughly the same period with the addition of 17,000 residential units, that equates to an average of 4 per unit. If the growth was to have taken place in the newly created units.

Secondly, the article then goes on to state that more than half of the 'new' residents were in fact already living in the core.......

Planners sent 15,550 questionnaires to residents in the area bounded by Lake Ontario, the Don Valley, Bathurst St. and Dupont St.-Rosedale Valley Rd.

Eighteen per cent responded – 2,260 households – meaning the survey should be accurate within 1.7 percentage points.

Most of the new downtown residents didn't move that far from their old homes.

Of those who had moved within the past five years, 70 per cent came from another Toronto address; and of that group, eight out of 10 had moved from another downtown home or one within 5 kilometres.
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the article is full of inconsistencies.
 
Real population growth isn't going to happen in $400,000 condos - it happens in cheap housing on the edges of the city through immigration. Downtown residents get more attention now because they're wealthier.

But it doesn't matter. The suburbs don't vote as a block and low-income people tend to vote leftward anyway.
 
kettal said:
Well this pretty much conflicts with any number of news articles I've read claiming downtown is the fastest growing area in the city for the past decade.

e.g.
http://www.thestar.com/News/GTA/article/270694

And I have no doubt that a lot more growth happened between 2006 to 2010. I've read that there will be 50,000 new residents added to downtown in 2010 alone.
Click to expand...


Well the figures I cited come from Statistics Canada and the City of Toronto, so they're about as reliable as you're going to get. I'm not sure where you got that 50,000 new residents in one year but it sounds way out of line.

From a political standpoint, all of this is beside the point. Even if the downtown population increased to 169,000 and even if it goes up above 200,000, there are 1.5 million people living in Scarborough, North York and Etobicoke right now. If you don't win there, you're not going to win the mayoralty.
 
my guess would be he is resigning as Mayor as of whatever date the last budget vote is, which gives the dep mayor new credibility (assuming it is an automatic promotion)
 
I have no idea how the chain of succession works for the Mayor of Toronto - I'd assume council would vote and appoint someone interim mayor. That's what happened when Crombie resigned, I think. But the post-amalgamation rules might be different.
 
GraphicMatt said:
Miller's got an important announcement set for tomorrow, and no one seems to know what it is.

I hope he jumps back into the mayoral race because that would make things incredibly entertaining.
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Wow really? I'd LOVE for Miller to run again.. holy moly. That would be awesome. With Giambrone out, Miller's campaign machine has no current candidate to support. If they managed to convince Miller to run for a third term, I have no doubt he'd have a very good chance of beating Smitherman and Rossi.
 
There's nothing indicating he'll do it, though it's hard to imagine what else the surprise announcement could be. I doubt it'll just be a simple endorsement. Could be an announcement of funding from the province but I think that would have leaked by now.

Maybe Giambrone's stepping down as TTC chair and Miller's going to take over as interim chair until the election?

Or maybe he's just getting a haircut or something.

I do think the election needs something or someone to turn it away from being a "I'm more fiscally conservative than you" dick-waving contest. Who's got vision?
 
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