Next Mayor of Toronto?

[Mr.Tang]

I dont know, heavily unionized, city provided garbage service isnt really a must-have for me. I suspect a lot of other's in this city would agree with me regardless as to whether or not they are in the suburbs (what does that even mean for a Toronto election) or not. Further the fact that it is a broadly held idea is why both of them are selling it.

 

[T.O.Fanatic]

I should clarify, perhaps contracted out garbage service MAY be a good idea in light of the city's budget woes. I just oppose the mantra that public services are simply inefficient versions of the private sector.

 

[GraphicMatt]

I'm quite content to see garbage service contracted out, though getting a good deal through outsourcing will require a good administrator. I think Smitherman can do it, though. (Rossi I'm sure would be a disaster.)

I will say this, though, the armchair political strategists who think the way to win this upcoming election is to immediately distance yourself from Miller and turn hard to the right are completely out to lunch.

 

[Eug]

Smitherman would seem to be at least tolerable as mayor, except he seems to want to steal Rossi's thunder by contracting out garbage and TTC routes to please the suburbs. Lost my vote right there.

And he probably gained two more votes in the centre-right. That's the point.

He's a centre-left guy who has the mainstream vote that is trying to steal Rossi's thunder as well, whereas someone like Pantalone is firmly on the left, a holdover from the government who capitulated to the unions.

I'm quite content to see garbage service contracted out, though getting a good deal through outsourcing will require a good administrator. I think Smitherman can do it, though. (Rossi I'm sure would be a disaster.)

I will say this, though, the armchair political strategists who think the way to win this upcoming election is to immediately distance yourself from Miller and turn hard to the right are completely out to lunch.

I will say this, though, the armchair political strategists who think the centre-right vote doesn't matter are completely out to lunch. Smitherman understands this, which is precisely why he's going after them, but not so aggressively to alienate the centre to centre-left vote too much.

Interestingly, your stance on garbage seems to support this point. Contracting out garbage in previous years would have been considered a right move. Now it isn't really. It's just mainstream slightly right of centre, because people are so fed up with some of the unions. The electorate... IMO... has shifted slightly right, and being the politician that he is, Smitherman is trying to shift with them.

 

[MetroMan]

How's this for baseless speculation? Giambrone's name is still listed on the Candidates for Mayor list. Even though there's a section on the list provided for drop outs, he's still listed in the active candidates list.

I don't have any insider tips to support this (in fact one of my Giambrone sources tells me Adam really isn't running for Mayor) but I wouldn't put aside the idea that Giambrone could still leave his name on the list in a "wait and see" approach and potentially grasp at the opportunity to jump in between a fierce brawl with Smitherman and Rossi on either side.

 

[unimaginative2]

I should clarify, perhaps contracted out garbage service MAY be a good idea in light of the city's budget woes. I just oppose the mantra that public services are simply inefficient versions of the private sector.

That's not what Smitherman said. In fact, it's the exact opposite of what he said. He specifically criticized the attitude that privatization is a panacea. He simply said that the city should examine privatization as an option if it would result in lower costs or better service.

I tend to find that the best customer service around comes from government agencies that are under credible threat of privatization, such as the LCBO and VIA Rail.

 

[Eug]

That's not what Smitherman said. In fact, it's the exact opposite of what he said. He specifically criticized the attitude that privatization is a panacea. He simply said that the city should examine privatization as an option if it would result in lower costs or better service.

Yes. That's exactly what I was getting at. In fact, I don't expect him to necessarily seriously pursue this. However, the above statement alone is probably enough to win some centre-right voters IMO, and away from other right-leaning candidates.

 

[kEiThZ]

After the garbage strike and all the recent TTC crap, any candidate who decides to play for peace with the unions and not put privatization and outsourcing on the table is pretty much dead I think, for most of the public who are really sick of the unions' shenanigans in this town. I would have thought of writing Rossi off, but with every boneheaded move the unions and their members make in this town (like sleeping on the job in full public view), Rossi's anti-union policies start to look more and more attractive. He probably won't win, but he will probably succeed in shifting the tenor of debate in this election to the right. Who'd have thought that the outsourcing of the TTC's operations would even be allowed as a point of discussion a few months ago?

Left wing candidates like Pantalone don't stand a chance in the suburbs where the anti-Miller sentiment is probably the strongest. At the very least, he's going to have to distance himself from Miller and maybe even repudiate some of Miller's policies (like no outsourcing or so called 'War on the car' policies (which I personally support)).

 

[kEiThZ]

In fact, one of the major reasons behind the Miller victory is quite arguably the fact that he successfully found the key issue that spanned the political spectrum and allowed people who would not normally support an NDP candidate to join his coalition.

Who ever can do that this time around will sit in the big chair come November.

I'd be careful. That could be Rossi, given how high sentiments are running over the city's inflating budget and over the arrogance of Toronto's unions.

 

[kettal]

Do the suburbs really hold enough people to elect a mayor? Since the Lastman era, the population growth of the city has shifted heavily towards downtown.

 

[kEiThZ]

I tend to find that the best customer service around comes from government agencies that are under credible threat of privatization, such as the LCBO and VIA Rail.

Well put. Personally, I think if just one major city service was privatized, the rest of the unions would fall in line pretty quickly. Waste collection just happens to be the easiest one to outsource. And we've already got a template in Etobicoke.

 

[kEiThZ]

Do the suburbs really hold enough people to elect a mayor? Since the Lastman era, the population growth of the city has shifted heavily towards downtown.

Depends how you define the suburbs. Yonge and Eglinton is hardly the same as Rexdale but it is in North York. But I'd venture to say that residents on Eglinton are far more likely to have concerns in common with an Etobicoke or Scarborough resident than a downtowner who never has to worry about trash collection (lives in a condo with a magic chute) and probably doesn't even use the TTC that much (walks more often and rarely rides the TTC for an hour to get to work), or even owns a car.

For straight up numbers, my understanding was that it was about 50-50 at Eglinton.

 

[GraphicMatt]

Painting it as the suburbs versus downtown is a little too simplistic. If you look at the voting maps for 2003, Miller really won on the backs of downtown voters AND the more low-income suburban areas.

 

[unimaginative2]

I'd be careful. That could be Rossi, given how high sentiments are running over the city's inflating budget and over the arrogance of Toronto's unions.

I wouldn't underestimate Sarah Thompson, either. I don't know much about her but I think that an outsider image might appeal to a lot of people. She might also benefit from being the only female candidate.

Obviously there's a precedent in our province for an NDP government getting stabbed in the back by its union allies and then being replaced by an option that was previously seen to be on the right-wing fringe.

Do the suburbs really hold enough people to elect a mayor? Since the Lastman era, the population growth of the city has shifted heavily towards downtown.

Not at all. In fact, if you look at federal ridings most of the ones in the old City of Toronto have shrunk, especially Parkdale, Davenport, and Danforth.

 

[kettal]

Not at all. In fact, if you look at federal ridings most of the ones in the old City of Toronto have shrunk, especially Parkdale, Davenport, and Danforth.

Some neighbourhoods have shrunk in population because gentrification has brought smaller family sizes. I am absolutely certain that this is negated by the hundreds of thousands of new condo units built since 2000, which have replaced abandoned factories and vacant land in downtown.