Next Mayor of Toronto?

[MetroMan]

I hear ya, but the majority of downtowners, are dead set against Ford, and its downtown where the denser areas are and the highest number of voters... similar to the 2003 election, the support will be enough to have him squeeze by.

Why don't the polls show that?

 

[Calrissian]

Smitherman has never advocated priviatizing the TTC, he has mentioned private-public partnerships. If anything, Ford is the most likely to privatize the TTC. His director of policy is an advocate of outright privatization:



Transit is not a proponent of transit, pure and simple. It's clear that he is going to have to cut services and the TTC will be sacrificed in doing so. He can promise the world, but his transit plan is simply unfeasible and will serve fewer Torontonians.

And the real true biting irony is, the seniors/baby boomers/tax burdened families/immigrants that are rumoured to be supporting him, are signing their own death warrant in killing off these routes that they'd probably be relying on.

 

[Peepers]

Turn out at advance polling stations is up 82% over the last election!

Somehow I doubt that people are rushing to the polls early to vote for a failed provincial politician who is looking for his next job. A politician best known for his $Billion boondoggles, skyrocketing energy rates and diaper wearing stunts that insulted seniors.

REAL change is on the way!

The Gravy Train is about to make its last stop.

 

[Calrissian]

Why don't the polls show that?

Because when you get the polls that are 'randomly' selecting households.. they're not reflecting this proportionately.. come on, you know this stuff!

what were the polls like right before Miller went into the election?

 

[nfitz]

I don't believe that Rob is unintelligent. To the contrary. I believe that Miller, who has a degree in economics and is outright dismissive of the simplest principals of land economics, is unintelligent. Miller cares about how he is perceived, first and foremost.

Absolutely ... Miller is an idiot. How anyone can slow the growth of commercial property taxes. Clearly business should be paying more tax ... we need to curb employment in the city which is growing to the point where it threatens our road and transit infrastructure.

 

[MetroMan]

Turn out at advance polling stations is up 82% over the last election!

Somehow I doubt that people are rushing to the polls early to vote for a failed provincial politician who is looking for his next job. A politician best known for his $Billion boondoggles, skyrocketing energy rates and diaper wearing stunts that insulted seniors.

REAL change is on the way!

The Gravy Train is about to make its last stop.

wow Peepers, you truly are myopic. Did it not occur to you that people might be going out in droves to vote against the most destructive candidate to the essence of Toronto? Smitherman isn't the most inspirational candidate, but I've never seen so many people dead set in voting against the possibility of somebody becoming Mayor. Many non political friends of mine have already gone to vote. Some of them for Pantalone, most of them for Smitherman.

 

[Calrissian]

Turn out at advance polling stations is up 82% over the last election!

Somehow I doubt that people are rushing to the polls early to vote for a failed provincial politician who is looking for his next job.

Well, there are people on this forum that did.. so...

 

[MetroMan]

Because when you get the polls that are 'randomly' selecting households.. they're not reflecting this proportionately.. come on, you know this stuff!

what were the polls like right before Miller went into the election?

The polls showed Miller slightly ahead. He won... slightly ahead of John Tory.

 

[nfitz]

What do you mean by cut transit. Is he going to cut back bus services and routes or anything of the sort?

Ford has been talking about cutting transit for years. He's the one who questioned why the TTC needed to run buses in the evening. He's the one who wants to replace 30-metre streetcars with 12-metre buses (do the math ...).

And worst of all, he has said he will cancel the underground 12-km transit tunnel under Eglinton from Weston to Leslie!

 

[Calrissian]

Absolutely ... Miller is an idiot. How anyone can slow the growth of commercial property taxes. Clearly business should be paying more tax ... we need to curb employment in the city which is growing to the point where it threatens our road and transit infrastructure.

So nfitz, what's your 30 thousand ft overview of this election going in on Monday? You're probably one of the most realistic, grounded and sensible posters on this forum (and not just in this thread but on the other transit and projects ones too).. A lot of us respect your POV.

 

[nfitz]

The Gravy Train is about to make its last stop.

What is this gravy train your referring to? Ford's plan to cancel the Eglinton line?

Why are you against transit?

 

[Calrissian]

The polls showed Miller slightly ahead. He won... slightly ahead of John Tory.

Well, isn't that what the polls are doing now? Again, that latest one is a bit of a red herring since it occured over the same period of others, was random, and polled few ppl.. so it would average out to the same.

 

[nfitz]

So nfitz, what's your 30 thousand ft overview of this election going in on Monday? You're probably one of the most realistic, grounded and sensible posters on this forum (and not just in this thread but on the other transit and projects ones too).. A lot of us respect your POV.

I gave my forecast a few days ago ...

Smitherman 47
Ford 39
Pantalone 11
Other 3

That's based on all those polls showing a near tie; I've been saying that if the polls show Smitherman 3-4 % behind Ford then Smitherman wins. This is based on Smitherman's momentum, Ford's plateau, undecided leaning away from Ford, traditionally higher voter turnouts in anti-Ford areas, and Pantalone's soft support ... some of which is running for the hills with the recent poll results.

Now what I forgot to factor in is the huge early vote that has already been done at the advance polls; so that might make it a bit closer ... as they wouldn't have seen the results of the latest polling. I think right now if I was going to make another prediction it would be closer to 44 39 12 5 ... but I'll stand by my original numbers. I certainly don't think it would be any closer than a Smitherman win by 5%.

 

[MetroMan]

nfitz, with all of UT as witness, if your prediction is anywhere near accurate to the one you propose above, I'm buying you a beer.

The logic that I agree with is that Ford supporters are the kind who have already made up their minds. With as much as 18% still not sure who to vote for, Smitherman has a big reservoir of votes to draw from.

Now, how many of those will follow the headlines "Ford Ahead in the Polls!" and vote as bandwagon jumpers? What damage will Smitherman's refusal to release his donor list cause? Who will vote on likability rather than on policy? In a race full of negativity, Joe still stands out as the nice guy who if given a first look at the 3 candidates, would probably win the support of most. These factors, and having to depend on Joe's supporters to jump ship, leave me very uneasy and not so confident going in to Monday.

 

[nfitz]

nfitz, with all of UT as witness, if your prediction is anywhere near accurate to the one you propose above, I'm buying you a beer.

And if I'm very wrong, I'll be opening the scotch bottle and drinking it directly!

The timing of the latest poll is quite fun ... if the last poll heading into the election shows a tie, or a Ford lead, then I'd think it would hurt Ford.