NDP sets conditions on backing Liberals

[unimaginative2]

The NDP always tends to do better between elections than at election time. I expected them to do much better last time than they did, with an electorate more left-wing than it has been in years and a huge number of voters angry with the Liberals looking for a protest vote that isn't Stephen Harper. Nevertheless, the NDP does have a big chance to win a lot of seats in BC. Interestingly, though, it could have the unfortunate effect of turning the NDP into a BC regional party with the majority of its seats in one (relatively) small province. In the "Eastern 9," I figure they have a decent chance at picking up a seat or maybe two in Saskatchewan, maybe gaining one in Manitoba (though Churchill is at risk now that Desjarlais lost her nomination). There are pretty much no ridings in Quebec where the NDP poll above the single digits, so I doubt they have much chance unless they can round up some kind of huge star candidate. They've got a few seats in the Maritimes that they'll almost certainly hold. I can't really see them gaining any more, since many of them got elected on Alexa McDonough's coattails and a downtown Toronto leader is likely not quite as popular. That leaves Ontario. I have a feeling they'll trade Ottawa for Oshawa, and Olivia Chow of course has a good shot, along with Marilyn Churley. Other than that, the pickings look pretty slim. All in all, they have a decent chance of climbing up to twenty-five or even thirty if they can keep up the momentum they've been building. Or they could increase their share of the popular vote, keep their current seat count, and elect a couple dozen more Conservatives... Just my guesses...

jeicow... I will eat a hat store full of hats if Calgary elects an NDPer.

 

[rbtaylor]

Every NDP government in this country has implemented disastrous economic policies that had to be drastically .rectifed by subsequent governments.

Can't say every. At very least Saskatchewan seems to be making out quite well financially and the NDP has been in power on and off since about the mid 40's with Tommy Douglas.

 

[rbtaylor]

Olivia Chow of course has a good shot

She threw a hissy fit after the last election claiming that she deserved all of the green votes. That pretty much turned me off from voting for her. We will see if it was enough to get me to donate to or help a competitor.

Nobody deserves votes.

 

[mpolo2]

As a British Columbian who lived through the Glen Clarke-through Ujal Dosanjth years I can honestly say their policies were brutal on the economy. Remember those were the late nineties. The global economy was experiencing the largest sustained economic expansion of the century and BC went through it mired in recession and underperformance. There was a net population outflow from BC for the first time in its history. 2 of the 3 leaders resigned due to criminal charges. The whole reason I live in Ontario is because when I hit the workforce there was no hope for us. Sure I carry an irrational grudge, but it is hard to argue the facts in this case. From what I understand the Bob Rae years werent exactly high-points here in Ontario either. I think the argument that the centre-left Saskatchewan part of the party has run successful governments is well put, but when the more Left-wing governments get into power, the NDP have not performed well and unfortunately I feel the federal NDP are cut more of the left-wing variety than centre left.

 

[Antiloop33rpm]

In terms of the federal NDP, there past failures seem to have a lot do with a weak leadership. Not that the people they elected to head the party where not qualified, competent, politicians, and Ed Broadbent certainly had many qualities that one would associate with a typical Canadian view of leader figures. But there really has not been someone to take hold of the party and give it a direction, give it leadership, and deal with some of the problems that persist in terms of peoples perception of left wing parties.

Jack Layton is somewhat sideways in terms of how most people see a Prime Minister, but I think that is really just a minor detail and one that he just has to overcome by developing the savy that is needed to play in federal politics. If he can continue to build on some of the momentum they gained in the last election and really build a strong base of supporters then I see no reason why they wont make some modest gains again this time around. I would hope (barring another quick election call after this one) that they can really work on developing there policies, continuing to appeal to the more grassroots and under represented parts of the countries citizenry, and develop a bit of political sophistication, they could do really well.

In terms of Ontario and Bob Rae, I either hear that he was horrible and the NDP made a gigantic mess, or that it was unfortunate timing, or something along those lines, and having been young at that time, I cant say I was paying that much attention to recall. Id like to one day actually do some detailed research on both Rae and Harris governments and see just what exactly went on.

 

[adma]

There are pretty much no ridings in Quebec where the NDP poll above the single digits, so I doubt they have much chance unless they can round up some kind of huge star candidate.

As a matter of fact, the NPD [franco-politically-correct sic] *did* crack the double-digit mark in some Quebec seats last time around: at least a couple in Montreal, plus Hull and former leadership candidate Pierre Ducasse over in Manicouagan. But only "just"...

 

[ganjavih]

But there really has not been someone to take hold of the party and give it a direction, give it leadership, and deal with some of the problems that persist in terms of peoples perception of left wing parties.

I think that's the problem... as long as people perceive them as a left-wing party, they won't go anywhere. The state of the economy is probably the most important issue to Canadians and I don't think people are ready to trust the NDP with its management yet.

 

[unimaginative2]

The NDP has had excellent governments in both Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Also, the poor economic performance in B.C. can't be entirely blamed on the NDP government, I don't think. B.C. is much more closely tied to Asia than most other parts of North America, so it would've been hit hard by the Asian financial crisis and post-97 drop-off in Hong Kong immigration. Even so, I don't think Harcourt/Clark helped.

That's true, adma, though Hull is obviously a rather exceptional riding, and in no case were they at a particularly high double-digit number.

 

[adma]

I know, I was just being pedantic (albeit in a way to give the NDP whatever faint hope they can use)...

 

[Fighting Madd]

Jack Layton's gott'a rid himself of that odd looking aid-de-camp Jamie Heath. Every time I see that guy on television speaking about Layton he creaps me out. Heath's got that odd, Rex-Murphian eye ball thing going on, plus that gaunt, vegan'esk skeletally thin look that more suits POWs, OCAP leaders or HIV sufferers than political spokesmen. I knew Heath at university back in the 1990s, and back then he looked healthy and personable; now he's just plain creapy.

 

[blixa442]

Blixa: Mind giving a few examples of these policies and their effects?

Under Rae, Ontario became an economic basket case. The same could be said for British Columbia. That province quickly became a have-not jurisdiction under their rule during one of Canada's biggest economic expansions. It's always amazing to see how quickly economies recover as soon the NDP is removed from power, or, we have yet to see how any NDP government has ever improved an economy. Over all, I'm sure the NDP social policies mean well for the average Canadian, but when it comes to economic issues this party is completely clueless and misguided.

 

[GeekyBoyTO]

blixa:

Now you're implying that Bob Rae caused Ontario to become an economic basket case, something that isn't entirely substantiated, especially considering the recession AND structural changes to the North American/Canadian economy at the time. Nor did the Ontario economy "miraculously" improves due to their removal from power.

If only it's as simple as switching parties...

GB

 

[Darkstar416]

That province quickly became a have-not jurisdiction under their rule during one of Canada's biggest economic expansions.

Ontario never became a "have not" province under Rae's rule and in case you've forgotten the early 90s represented one of the biggest periods of global economic downturn since the Great Depression. The only major expansion during these years was actually...in British Columbia.

Bob Rae's amateurish government could be blamed for a lot during that period, but you are clearly overstating and not being honest.

 

[unimaginative2]

Jamie Heath's their candidate to replace Broadbent in Ottawa Centre.

 

[adma]

No he isn't