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Moose Rail (National Capital Region)

^ Thanks Charles. Look forward to the clarifications from MOOSE to the contradictions in what they've posted.
 
I hope they are. But I suspect a realtor trying to use a constitutional loophole to use rail to boost land value, with no real benefit to the public, is not going to be under consideration.

When they say non-government proposals, think REM.

No, from the context of the discussion, she meant outside of transit agencies as well.
 
Regarding a few recent statements about both the fact that this is more about making money through property than running a railway company, as well as why MOOSE wouldn't be the operator of the system. Both of the links below take you to diagrams explaining MOOSE's business model. In the first it shows MOOSE in the middle collecting all the revenue, and in the second it shows MOOSE in the middle paying out all the fees to operators.
https://www.letsgomoose.ca/wp-content/uploads/Cost-Effectiveness-EN-02.png
https://www.letsgomoose.ca/wp-content/uploads/Cost-Effectiveness-EN-01.png

By sitting in the middle MOOSE is able to take their share of the pie, but eliminate all of the risk for themselves. They have no concern about whether there is actually a requirement or not, they don't care if the system is efficient enough. As long as they can convince enough folks that this makes sense and get some initial property investors to jump in, they simply sit there in the middle, collect money with one hand and distribute it with the other, ensuring of course that they get appropriately compensated in the meantime.

If a developer can't pay their share, no problem according to Joseph Potvin, they'll just create a whole new development just down the road.

Now, even if this whole scheme works out initially, it's not sustainable in my mind. Regardless, MOOSE can take their cut off of the initial boost in property values. Then as the system collapses around them because revenue doesn't match expenses, they simply fold up shop and declare bankruptcy. They don't actually own anything, much of the original investors money has gone towards infrastructure that MOOSE won't own, according to the model they won't own the rolling stock either. They simply close up their numbered company and let the investors try to recuperate their losses from the operators and station owners.
 
If "bullshit" is too vulgar for you, I suggest you avoid TV after 8pm and satellite radio completely. There's also other safe spaces beyond UT for your delicate sensitivities.
I don't mind it. I often swear. I am simply using the more conservative definition of 'vulgar' language.
 
Just wanted to repeat my questions for Mr. Potvin. He insist this project is in the public interest. So surely, he can answer a few basic questions:

1) How much ridership does MOOSE need to breakeven?

2) What will the density standard around MOOSE's stations locations be?

3) What is the transit modal share target for feed at MOOSE stations? And how much parking will be built at the stations?

4) What level of service and how many stations will be provided to residents inside the Greenbelt? Will they have exactly what is expected under Trillium Stage 2? YES or NO.

These are questions every single Ottawa resident, politician and other interested parties will be asking. Surely, Mr. Potvin has answers prepared for them.
 
Just wanted to repeat my questions for Mr. Potvin. He insist this project is in the public interest. So surely, he can answer a few basic questions

@kEiThZ,

1) How much ridership does MOOSE need to breakeven?

You have juxtaposed two factors in your question that make it unanswerable. The PPR business model drives system revenues from value increments amongst participating properties, through their participating station enterprises. In our documentation we clearly state how and why transit service per se is a positive externality, by design. MOOSE's breakeven considerations are a factor of property value, and it is the ridership "option value" rather than "ridership" per se that is critical.

2) What will the density standard around MOOSE's stations locations be?

This will be determined on a whole-system scale,. but it won't be a "standard". The train subscription will be an algorithmic contract.
"The train service provider will develop a portfolio of 35-50 autonomous station projects. Each station project is assumed to be operated by a “common elements freehold commercial condominium corporation” although that legal form is in no way a requirement. In turn, each of these is controlled by independent owners/investors of commercial/residential/industrial/government property units. They are presented the option to subscribe to train service under a standing offer agreement that consists of a data access clause, a price algorithm, and an automated method of payment. A station's monthly purchase order for train service two months in the future is benchmarked to its data from two months in the past. The algorithm provides that the realized property income and asset value increment that is statistically attributable to the addition of regional rail connectivity within a defined distance from the given station (0.8 km) is apportioned through negotiation amongst the three levels: the property units, the station corporations, and the train operator."

As documented in our materials, the revenue requirement of independent station enterprises will be determined by the external cost to them of the railway operation, and their internal costs of station operations. If you read the PPR white paper, you will see that the proportion of increment that stays with the property owners, and that stays with the station enterprise, and that goes to the railway operations consortium, will be negotiated on an annual basis.

3) What is the transit modal share target for feed at MOOSE stations? And how much parking will be built at the stations?


There is, and will be, no "target" of the type you state. Volume of parking will be determined later, but we doubt it would make any sense to dedicate the most valuable property around stations to sprawling parking lots. The PPR incentive structure will probably favour multi-level garages however, mainly below-ground.

4) What level of service and how many stations will be provided to residents inside the Greenbelt? Will they have exactly what is expected under Trillium Stage 2? YES or NO.

That remains to be determined and negotiated. Several commenters on this blog appear not to see why this intiative is set up to be a "consortium", and is specifically not set up to be a "monopoly". We invite OC-Transpo, the STO and other operators to participate in a consortium. The decisions to answer this Q4 you pose would be worked out in a collaborative way. Certainly, however, a whole-region consortium would not place the interests of people inside the greenbelt as more important that the interests of people outside the greenbelt, nor would it place the interest of Ontario taxpayers over the interests of Quebec taxpayers, and nor would it favour urban over rural perspectives. We view a regional transit system as the circulatory system of a live body. Ignoring circulation to a leg or a foot is not justified on the rationale that so much more lifting can be done by the arms.

Will residents inside the Greenbelt have exactly what is expected under Trillium Stage 2? No, almost certainly not, it will be different and we think better. More generally, our bet is that when those residence are given a genuine choice to optimize for the part to the neglect of the whole, or to optimize for the whole even if their part is not to be treated as more deserving, most will choose the health of the whole National Capital Region. We think this is the case because most households and extended families and workgroups actually "live" thoughout the region, even if their home or workplace is in just one or two parts of it. Saying this takes nothing away from your right to express opposition to such a perspective.

These are questions every single Ottawa resident, politician and other interested parties will be asking. Surely, Mr. Potvin has answers prepared for them.

This conversation would be so much more helpful to this blog community if you'd also answer questions.

Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com
 
This conversation would be so much more helpful to this blog community if you'd also answer questions.

Last time I checked @kEiThZ isn't proposing a new rail system so I don't think the onus is on him to answer questions. Speaking of questions, you're pretty selective yourself at which questions to answer or acknowledge. Glass houses, etc.
 
1) How much ridership does MOOSE need to breakeven?

You have juxtaposed two factors in your question that make it unanswerable. The PPR business model drives system revenues from value increments amongst participating properties, through their participating station enterprises. In our documentation we clearly state how and why transit service per se is a positive externality, by design. MOOSE's breakeven considerations are a factor of property value, and it is the ridership "option value" rather than "ridership" per se that is critical.

Despite your argument that there is no breakeven point because you don't depend on passengers for revenue, there is still a very direct linkage between the two. If the train is not used by locals in a residential setting, or if it does not bring in additional customers in a commercial setting, than the increase in property value would be limited if not potentially negatively affected. People like to see value for their money, and a lack of passengers will be seen as a lack of value.
 
Re "We invite OC-Transpo, the STO and other operators to participate in a consortium". And I wonder how long they'll have to wait and how the potential investors would view the waiting period.
 
Apologies to anyone who follows both forums for my cross posting.

@Joseph Potvin,

Three questions:

1. What frequency of service does MOOSE intend to provide?

2. How many trains does MOOSE intend to purchase?

3. Does your financial estimate for both upfront capital expenditures and for annual operating costs account for this number of trains?


The issue:

In your Letter of Application to CTA of 29 Jun 16 you claim that MOOSE will operate a 400km (para 20) network over 3 lines (Annex F). There will be approximately 50 stations (para 20). You indicate that you will use 6 trains to do that. (Annex J, para 3b) and that you will provide hourly service (page 6 of update 25 Nov 16).

To do that you would need each train to complete its run from end to end of each line in under an hour, give some time to conduct your “pit stop program” at the end of each line (Annex J, para 4.2), and then head out again in the opposite direction.

This is obviously impossible. Some simple math:

Assuming each line is 130km long.

Assume 15 stops per line and each stop reduces travel time by 2 minutes due to deceleration, offloading/onloading passengers, and acceleration. Total time lost at stations = 30 min.

To get from one end of the line to another in an hour would require the train to travel over 300km/hr. (60 min/hr -15x2 min/stop – 5min pitstop)=35min leaving 25min or 0.416 hours for travel. 130km/0.416hr = 312km/hr.

A more likely scenario is about a 3 hr turn around. This would give you a much more comfortable 3 minutes loss per station (45 min total), a 15 minute pit stop at each end, and 2 hours to travel 130km equating to an average of 65km/hr (remember we’re dealing with passing tracks, bridges, etc). In my mind that means you would require at least 18 trains and would probably need another 2 or 3 for ongoing maintenance issues.
 
You have juxtaposed two factors in your question that make it unanswerable. The PPR business model drives system revenues from value increments amongst participating properties, through their participating station enterprises. In our documentation we clearly state how and why transit service per se is a positive externality, by design. MOOSE's breakeven considerations are a factor of property value, and it is the ridership "option value" rather than "ridership" per se that is critical.

So you don't care about ridership at all? Only about the real estate uplift. Glad to know where your interests lie.

"The train service provider will develop a portfolio of 35-50 autonomous station projects. Each station project is assumed to be operated by a “common elements freehold commercial condominium corporation” although that legal form is in no way a requirement. In turn, each of these is controlled by independent owners/investors of commercial/residential/industrial/government property units. They are presented the option to subscribe to train service under a standing offer agreement that consists of a data access clause, a price algorithm, and an automated method of payment. A station's monthly purchase order for train service two months in the future is benchmarked to its data from two months in the past. The algorithm provides that the realized property income and asset value increment that is statistically attributable to the addition of regional rail connectivity within a defined distance from the given station (0.8 km) is apportioned through negotiation amongst the three levels: the property units, the station corporations, and the train operator."

You could have just said you have no density standard. This exposes your suggestion of high-density rural living as a lie. By the way, I'd like an example of high density rural community built in the post-war era. Do you have an example?

There is, and will be, no "target" of the type you state.

Which means, you are not planning for a feeder bus service and/or don't give a damn about how your passengers arrive at the station. Which can only mean one thing: sprawl.

That remains to be determined and negotiated.

You want Ottawa residents to support you and you think their politicians should acquiesce to surrendering a major rail corridor, but their service is negotiable?

I am genuinely curious if you are the least bit self-aware of how you come off in your public image with statements like this.

This conversation would be so much more helpful to this blog community if you'd also answer questions.

Am I the one proposing to upend transit in the fifth largest city in Canada?

That wasn't even a great try at deflection.
 
Despite your argument that there is no breakeven point because you don't depend on passengers for revenue, there is still a very direct linkage between the two. If the train is not used by locals in a residential setting, or if it does not bring in additional customers in a commercial setting, than the increase in property value would be limited if not potentially negatively affected. People like to see value for their money, and a lack of passengers will be seen as a lack of value.

This is actually an excellent point I hadn't considered. The uplift is proportional to usage. If there is little to limited usage...read feeder traffic to businesses along the line, values will tank.

The last few posts on SSP Ottawa have been so enlightening. This really is starting to look less like a naive but innocent attempt at improving transit. And more like an attempt at scamming rural investors.

The good thing, the longer this and the SSP thread, the more that Mr. Potvin will be on record for any and all to see.
 
Re "We invite OC-Transpo, the STO and other operators to participate in a consortium". And I wonder how long they'll have to wait and how the potential investors would view the waiting period.

It's hilarious when you think about it. This is like suggesting that I want to start a rail line tomorrow and saying I'm going to suggest that VIA and CN join me in a consortium, right after I suggest legal manoeuvering to gain access to their assets. Why would they not tell me where to stick my "proposal"?
 

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