So after 7 years of watching this whole Moose ordeal I couldn’t hold back anymore and had to leave a few thoughts about it.
I’ll start out by saying that there are at least a dozen reasons why Moose will fail, but I am not going to focus on the ones specific to the Moose plan, just the ones about commuter rail in general. And I don’t have anything against commuter rail, or a private commuter rail company. In fact I think both could/will be a good thing for the NCR in the near future. But right now, commuter rail doesn’t make sense, and it will take a few, pretty major projects, and important realizations, before the moment is right for it.
1. The Trillium line ROW is far too valuable as an LRT line to be given up, or even slightly compromised, for commuter rail.
No LRT line in Ottawa is going to spur as much high density, urban, development as the Trillium Line. Yes, the Confederation line will go through Hintonburg, Tunneys Pasture [sic], Westboro, etc. But these are all pretty well established neighbourhoods that are also somewhat resistant to change which means there is going to be a slow burn of new development (I also know that Lebreton Flats is the exception along that line). The change along many sections of the Trillium Line, however, will be fast and massive in scale.
The Trillium Line runs through a big part of Ottawa’s industrial history, which means there are now a lot of brownfields, and under-utilized urban areas, that are ready for development. If you follow even the first section of the line from Bayview to Carling you can see the vein of urbanity that it is going to be created, even when you only take into account the projects under construction or proposed today, let alone what else comes online in the next 5 to 10 years. (The re-development potential around Walkley, Greensboro, and South Keys, and connections to Carelton [sic] University, and the airport are also valuable aspects of the line). This corridor of growth is critical to Ottawa, and its because this corridor is being connected by an LRT line, providing fast local transit service, that connects it to downtown and other neighbourhoods, that this growth is, and will continue to take place. Commuter rail would just bypass most of these places, and have a frequency that would make it a pointless option. If anything put into jeopardy the future of a Trillium Line that was equivalent to the Confederation Line, you would see development arrested along it very quickly.
Yes, the city is doing its usual thing where they debate and discuss and consult for what seems like forever. But, they will also likely do their usual thing of one day getting it together and putting together a proper LRT plan for Trillium Line which will send development flying. The city knows how valuable the line is to urban development and the transportation network of the city, and there is not a chance they are going to let it be compromised in the slightest. Commuter rail on this line, in any shape or form, is a non-starter.
2. Ottawas rail network in the more central parts of the city is rubbish and totally unsuitable for commuter rail
As it stands right now Ottawa only has two rail stations. One at the cities edge in Barrhaven, and Tremblay, a central station which is a final destination for nobody. There are no rail connections to Gatineau (a sizeable, underserved population). And there is no rail station downtown.
Even if the city decided that the Trillium line wasn’t all that important (which it is), you still have a constrained line which doesn’t go downtown (Bayview is kind of close, but not really). While it would serve Gatineau, the same problem exists on that side of the river in that it would skirt around the downtown area.
The only reason the existing rail network kind of works is because intercity VIA travel brings in different people/travellers. Its not a big deal to have to carry on a while after your journey to the train station if you are coming for a few days, or you’ve already been travelling for a few hours, or more. But commuting is different. You do it every single weekday, almost every week of the year, and minutes matter. Most people don’t take commuter rail because they just really like trains, or want to virtue signal that they care about the environment and sustainable development and all sorts of other things (those people are going to buy a Tesla to do that). People take it because it’s a faster commute, or cheaper, or some combination of those and other very practical factors. A commuter rail network that feeds into Tremblay is going to provide those benefits to very few people.
3. Like LRT, building a proper, modern commuter rail network is going to be very, very expensive, when the time is actually right for commuter rail
Everyone here likely remembers the debates surrounding upgrading the Transitway to LRT in the early 2000’s. The cost was high, which scared a lot of people off. This lead to a “compromise/more affordable” plan that had LRT running on surface streets through downtown Ottawa, instead of in a tunnel. Luckily that was killed off, because for obvious reasons that would have been stupid. Since then LRT has pushed forward with a plan that is modern, and doesn’t make any tradeoffs. Yes, it means it is a lot more expensive, but for a city that is continuing to grow, and will keep doing so for the foreseeable future, it is the only way.
Commuter rail is the exact same. When the time is right for commuter rail (more on this below), it will be part of a very costly endeavour to actually serve central Ottawa and Gatineau with proper rail connections. This means tunnels, downtown stations, electrification, etc. It will allow the Gatineau side to finally have access to passenger and commuter rail services. It will involve the cooperation of two cities, two provinces, the federal government, and the NCC.
In short, it will likely be one of the biggest engineering projects the NCR has seen. And it won’t be commuter rail to Wakefield or Arnprior that fuels it. It will be intercity passenger rail that does. Which will also mean that when commuter rail does start to take shape, it could well be VIA providing the first commuter services along its existing lines. Then, communities that are on older rail lines, lines that will need additional capital investment to, most likely rebuild or heavily, upgrade to modern standards can be explored as potential places to expand commuter rail too.
But this is all decades out. Commuter rail needs to grow on the backbone of a strong intercity rail network, and Ottawa doesn’t have that right now, nor is it in the cards at the moment.
………….
Ottawa is a city in transition. Think about how different parts of the city will look when someone in 2023 is looking back to what it was in 2013. LRT will have 2 phases of construction done, and become a ubiquitous part of how people travel around parts of Ottawa. You will have all the urban development undertaken as part of the Zibi and Lebreton projects, construction along the Trillium Line, especially from Bayview to Dows Lake, and all the urban development in existing neighbourhoods. Ottawa is at a crossroads where it is becoming a big city. This is exciting because big thinkers can contribute forward thinking ideas that will help the city move grow in positive ways. But like any city in transition, timing can be tough to judge, and sometimes the big ideas being tossed around aren’t quite ready for primetime. Commuter rail is one of those ideas.
Ultimately Moose will fail because even a well backed, government subsidized commuter rail service wouldn’t succeed if it was launched on the existing rail network. What is needed for anyone to have a chance to succeed are massive, government funded, capital investments in new infrastructure to bring a modern rail network to the central part of Ottawa and into Gatineau.
I genuinely think that in the next 5 to 10 years intercity rail (aka VIA rail in the Quebec-Windsor corridor), will be a topic that isn’t just vaguely discussed when it gets close to Federal elections. Modernizing that corridor is around the corner (again, it took time for investing in it to make sense, and that time is almost here). And in the Ottawa context this will fuel regional governments to look at how that could help Ottawa and Gatineau, especially when it comes to dealing with the challenging subject of interprovincial commuting and travelling in the NCR.
I like Moose for trying something different. But it’s dead in the water. It might have hd [sic] a small chance of working with Ottawas thinking 10 or 20 years ago, but not todays Ottawa.