Metrolinx: Sheppard East LRT (In Design)

[nfitz]

When the GTA reaches 10 million people this sort of infrastructure will be absolutely vital. If we skimp and build light rail to save money then we will be forced to waste money replacing the overloaded light rail lines with real subways 20 years from now, when the population of the GTA will be around 8 million and thousands of condo towers will have been built.

Agreed. However the modelling done to predict future subway and LRT usage 20 years in the future, is based on future employment and population density. We absolutely need more subways - Yonge for example is not physically capable of handling the doubling in demand for that line estimated to occur in the next 20 years. Which is why we need to spend money on subway where it is needed, rather than Sheppard east of Victoria Park, where the 2031 estimates show lower ridership then, than on the existing segment of the Sheppard subway now.

 

[andrewpmk]

Agreed. However the modelling done to predict future subway and LRT usage 20 years in the future, is based on future employment and population density. We absolutely need more subways - Yonge for example is not physically capable of handling the doubling in demand for that line estimated to occur in the next 20 years. Which is why we need to spend money on subway where it is needed, rather than Sheppard east of Victoria Park, where the 2031 estimates show lower ridership then, than on the existing segment of the Sheppard subway now.

Be careful with these ridership projections. It is impossible to really predict ridership on the Sheppard line which depends on many factors (population and employment growth along Sheppard, construction of other transit lines like Downtown Relief Line and Stouffville GO, the economy, fuel prices, etc.) It is easy to generate radically different ridership projections depending on the assumptions of the model. I strongly suspect that the Transit City ridership projections used very low estimates of population/employment growth and thus the ridership estimates were low.

Also please remember that the Yonge line is not the only piece of transportation infrastructure in the GTA which is severely overloaded. The vast majority of the population of the GTA does not work downtown. A Don Mills subway is needed from Union to Don Mills/Finch or Leslie/Highway 7 to relieve the Yonge subway but also to reduce congestion on DVP/404 (remember most of this traffic is not going downtown, as the traffic is worst between about Eglinton and Finch on this highway). Also subways on Eglinton and Sheppard are needed to relieve the severe congestion on Highway 401, which carries far, far more traffic than the DVP and Gardiner into downtown and the vast majority of the traffic on 401 is not going downtown. Never assume that everyone who is using the Sheppard subway will transfer to the Yonge line and go downtown because once extended, I suspect it will mostly carry crosstown traffic that is not going downtown.

 

[EnviroTO]

The vast majority of the population of the GTA does not work downtown.

The vast majority don't work in transit friendly developments. No transit system will ever compete with the car in places where the pedestrian environment and walking distance to major intersections played no factor in city planning, and a subway will rarely be required on a route where most of the people neither originated nor were destined to a place in walking distance from the route.

 

[Paleo]

Be careful with these ridership projections. It is impossible to really predict ridership on the Sheppard line which depends on many factors (population and employment growth along Sheppard, construction of other transit lines like Downtown Relief Line and Stouffville GO, the economy, fuel prices, etc.) It is easy to generate radically different ridership projections depending on the assumptions of the model. I strongly suspect that the Transit City ridership projections used very low estimates of population/employment growth and thus the ridership estimates were low.

Also please remember that the Yonge line is not the only piece of transportation infrastructure in the GTA which is severely overloaded. The vast majority of the population of the GTA does not work downtown. A Don Mills subway is needed from Union to Don Mills/Finch or Leslie/Highway 7 to relieve the Yonge subway but also to reduce congestion on DVP/404 (remember most of this traffic is not going downtown, as the traffic is worst between about Eglinton and Finch on this highway). Also subways on Eglinton and Sheppard are needed to relieve the severe congestion on Highway 401, which carries far, far more traffic than the DVP and Gardiner into downtown and the vast majority of the traffic on 401 is not going downtown. Never assume that everyone who is using the Sheppard subway will transfer to the Yonge line and go downtown because once extended, I suspect it will mostly carry crosstown traffic that is not going downtown.

Subways for suburb to suburb commuters don't make financial sense. They will lose way too much money. Then again if people want a 5-10% tax increase to subsidize the overbuilt gold-plated service, maybe but not before more pressing priorities are met.

By the way, hasn't population and employment density along Sheppard East been decreasing?

 

[datamouse]

By the way, hasn't population and employment density along Sheppard East been decreasing?

I don't know about employment, if anything I would say it's decreased or stayed about the same. Residential on the other has gone up no question about it with most growth being along the existing subway.

 

[nfitz]

I strongly suspect that the Transit City ridership projections used very low estimates of population/employment growth and thus the ridership estimates were low.

Ah yes, the "I know better than all the experts" justification of why Sheppard should be subway. Or is it the "they manipulated the results, so that subway didn't look necessary" justification.

The vast majority of people in the GTA do not work downtown ...

No, they don't. However, from 2005 to 2010, employment in Toronto only grew by about 36,000, while employment downtown grew by 45,000. More new jobs were created downtown, than the rest of the city combined. Employment in most areas actually shrunk - though growth in North York Centre was quite respectable.

 

[datamouse]

To be fair the EA projected a subway ridership of 5000pphpd (2008) and recently the TTC produced the number of 7800 (2012). A four year gap doesn't account for the gap in those numbers. Someone's methodology was off and I'll assume it was who did the EA. (I'm not saying there's a conspiracy.)

 

[nfitz]

To be fair the EA projected a subway ridership of 5000pphpd (2008) and recently the TTC produced the number of 7800 (2012). A four year gap doesn't account for the gap in those numbers. Someone's methodology was off and I'll assume it was who did the EA. (I'm not saying there's a conspiracy.)

What's the source for the 7,800 number? Is that the current subway ridership?

Which EA gave a 2008 ridership of 5000. Was this the one in the 1980s?

 

[datamouse]

What's the source for the 7,800 number? Is that the current subway ridership?

Which EA gave a 2008 ridership of 5000. Was this the one in the 1980s?

Apologies, let me be more clear. These are the projection numbers for ridership along Sheppard for 20 years in the future.
The first source is from the Sheppard East LRT Environmental Assessment. It found that the LRT would bring in ridership at the level of 3000 at peak while a subway would bring in 5000. http://www.toronto.ca/involved/projects/sheppard_east_lrt/pdf/completion/ea_report_master_part1.pdf
The second source for the 7300 (error before on my part) is http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2012/cc/bgrd/CC20_1_app3_7.pdf

 

[andrewpmk]

I think that there will be a lot more growth in suburban office space along the subway system though. The main reason that there has been little growth in 416 suburbs office space is high commercial tax rates, too much growth has gone to 905 office parks with little transit, but commercial tax rates are gradually becoming more competitive again, Rob Ford is pushing for a 3 year freeze on commercial tax rates (effectively a cut by the rate of inflation). Office space in downtown is pricey (office space in the 416 suburbs or 905 causes half as much as downtown, costing thousands less per employee), and office space in 905 office parks has little transit and traffic congestion is severe in the Mississauga/Markham office park areas. North York Centre and the Don Mills DVP/404 corridor could easily see lots of commercial growth in the future, which will make the Sheppard subway (and a subway along Don Mills Rd) much easier to justify.

Also a subway running along Don Mills Rd from downtown to Sheppard (everyone here agrees that the south end is needed, but I think it needs to continue further north) will cause a big increase in Sheppard subway ridership east of Don Mills, from people going downtown and to the Don Mills area.

 

[Palma]

I am not sure where this talk of a Don Mills is subway is coming from. From what i remember hearing in the past was a Don MIlls LRT and Jane St LRT

 

[andrewpmk]

Don Mills subway = Downtown relief line

 

[gweed123]

Don Mills subway = Downtown relief line

But only the most extreme fantasy plans have the DRL going anywhere north of Eglinton for the foreseeable future. The generally accepted plan is from Eglinton & Don Mills to downtown.

Personally I think that if they're going to build the SELRT they should build it in such a way that it can continue south along Don Mills to Eglinton, so at least it's still a 1 transfer ride to downtown. But that's pretty unlikely to happen.

 

[nfitz]

Apologies, let me be more clear. These are the projection numbers for ridership along Sheppard for 20 years in the future.
The first source is from the Sheppard East LRT Environmental Assessment. It found that the LRT would bring in ridership at the level of 3000 at peak while a subway would bring in 5000. http://www.toronto.ca/involved/projects/sheppard_east_lrt/pdf/completion/ea_report_master_part1.pdf
The second source for the 7300 (error before on my part) is http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2012/cc/bgrd/CC20_1_app3_7.pdf

Oh, I see.

I think the difference is because of different assumptions. The 7,300 appears to be the 2031 of Sheppard East subway to Scarborough Centre. While 5,000 appears to be 2031 forecast if the subway was in the Sheppard corridor itself ... presumably to Morningside ... or perhaps Meadowvale. Either way, both are a fraction of the 15,400 that was forecast for 2011 back in 1992, which is when subway seemed to be necessary.

 

[Lone Primate]

GO REX is the single most important system that the GTHA will be building in the next 20 years. More important than any changes to the highway network, more important than the LRT network.

And yes, it will get people off the DVP, 404, 427, and 410.

Some, sure. Hey, again, don't get me wrong. I'm for it. But I know from experience that people are on the roads to go in all different directions. SOME are going downtown. My folks had jobs in Brampton and Hamilton and where we lived split the difference. Neither was going downtown and both had to take the roads just to get where they were going. There's a lot of that going on out there. We need things like LRTs and GO REX to stay ahead of gridlock, there's no question of that. I just want to hold the line at presenting anything as a panacea.