Metrolinx: Sheppard East LRT (In Design)

[nfitz]

Even if not a single extra person moves onto Sheppard East -- which, let's face it, is hardly the case; have seen what's going up at Provost? -- the thing already serves a purpose. I was there, I saw it, I lived it, and I'm here to tell you.

Sure it serves a purpose, but LRT could just as well have served the same purpose, given how much lower the Sheppard subway ridership is, than the 10,000 lower end at the peak-point that is normally used to consider such project. For the price of that 6-km subway tunnel, we could have instead have built about 35-km of LRT on Sheppard ... all the way from Kipling to Morningside. That too would have served a purpose ... and more riders! And it could have been running for over a decade already.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Go easy on Lone Primate... he has no problem with the LRT per se, just prefers subways. That's fine. So do I, but it what it is now.

 

[Lone Primate]

Sure it serves a purpose, but LRT could just as well have served the same purpose, given how much lower the Sheppard subway ridership is, than the 10,000 lower end at the peak-point that is normally used to consider such project. For the price of that 6-km subway tunnel, we could have instead have built about 35-km of LRT on Sheppard ... all the way from Kipling to Morningside. That too would have served a purpose ... and more riders! And it could have been running for over a decade already.

Yes, I agree with you. If I could go back in time and make a recommendation to city council in the 1990s, I'd be with you in recommending an LRT rather than a subway line on Sheppard... knowing what I know now about the relative expenses versus the return per cost of moving one person. I don't know but I'd be willing to bet we could have gotten a whole lot more LRT on Sheppard than we got subway for the same money.

But my point was, we DO have the subway, and I DID use it and saw it being well-used, and I am absolutely convinced that it's a major reason we're seeing so much development on that stretch of Sheppard today. Who I'm really arguing with is all the folks who say there's no reason to build X at Y because no one will use it. What I'm saying is, all else being equal, development tends to go where the infrastructure is. You may have to subsidize it initially, but if with a little foresight you can use it to plan out the development of your city sensibly instead of just leaving it up to the whims of developers and the vagueries of how far folks are willing to drive.

I think the construction of the LRT will lead to development, and rapid development, between Victoria Park and Kennedy. I think it will eat up most of the single family homes along Sheppard fairly quickly and make alphabet soup out of the vetted 2031 projections mentioned here.

Who can say what gas is going to cost by 2031. I don't even want to imagine.

 

[rbt]

Who can say what gas is going to cost by 2031. I don't even want to imagine.

Don't know. But if you make the assumption nobody drives then the LRT doesn't need to stop at lights or even make it all the way through intersections anymore (trains can be 200m long).

It would be the exact same speed as a subway underground if built with stops at the same locations.

 

[andrewpmk]

Gas prices would have to go up by an order of magnitude for the 401 to be empty. And if everyone who currently uses the 401 actually started using Sheppard LRT then there is absolutely no way LRT could possibly handle the demand. Sheppard would be as busy as the Yonge line in this case.

I expect that if the Sheppard subway were built, both 401 and the subway would be extremely busy at rush hour 20 years from now. The Sheppard subway is only underused because it is unfinished. There are short subway lines in Paris (3bis and 7bis) which have lower ridership than Sheppard. The Transit City ridership models used flawed assumptions to underestimate ridership in my opinion.

 

[nfitz]

And if everyone who currently uses the 401 actually started using Sheppard LRT then there is absolutely no way LRT could possibly handle the demand.

Wouldn't it? If you assume that 100% of the cars at peak on the 401 switch to the Sheppard LRT, and that there is 1 driver per car (the failures in these assumptions may cancel each other out a bit), and that the capacity of an expressway lane is about 2,000 cars per hour, and that there are 7 lanes, and that the 401 is at capacity, you'd add 14,000 riders per hour at peak. Add to 3,100 riders forecast on the Sheppard LRT at the peak point (according to Metrolinx), and your at about 17,000 riders an hour. Certainly just beyond upper edge of LRT. But not in the absolutely no way LRT could possibly handle range. You could still handle 17,000 riders with about 1 3-car LRT train every 2 minutes. Given that no one will be left driving on the roads, then there's less of an issue here with longer, more frequent, trains.

Given that the situation is extremely unlikely, LRT should be able to handle much of it. But if it really comes to that, there are options. Suddenly there's this 14-lane wide corridor across Toronto with no traffic. You could then run express trains along it. And nothing precludes you still extending the Sheppard subway to Scarborough Centre, other than some engineering work at Don Mills station to separate the lines - if ridership grew that much because gas was so expensive, really the Sheppard subway is the lesser concern!

 

[Lone Primate]

Gas prices would have to go up by an order of magnitude for the 401 to be empty.

Whoa, whoa, guys, when I mentioned gas prices, I wasn't predicting the end of civilization. Just that every time it jumps, it probably prompts more people to consider the TTC. And if it's available and timely, like crisscrossing town with light rail transit, we could really see some boosts in ridership by 2031. But I'm not saying I expect you'll need to trade equivalent weights of gold for gas or something.

 

[rbt]

Wouldn't it? If you assume that 100% of the cars at peak on the 401 switch to the Sheppard LRT, and that there is 1 driver per car (the failures in these assumptions may cancel each other out a bit), and that the capacity of an expressway lane is about 2,000 cars per hour, and that there are 7 lanes, and that the 401 is at capacity, you'd add 14,000 riders per hour at peak. Add to 3,100 riders forecast on the Sheppard LRT at the peak point (according to Metrolinx), and your at about 17,000 riders an hour. Certainly just beyond upper edge of LRT.

Put together 6 to 8 car trains. Loads of space.

Remember, there's no traffic to blocking intersections when that 8 car train stops to load/unload doesn't matter. Presumably all streets, in this extremely fictional scenario, are now pedestrian spaces.

8-car surface LRT train every 2 minutes should be approaching 40,000 pphpd. Actual daily ridership of the line could be in the ballpark of 600,000 passengers (extrapolated from other line numbers peak vs actual ridership numbers). That estimate is remarkably similar to highway 401 + Sheppard numbers combined in their peak points for auto traffic.

 

[Lone Primate]

Wouldn't it?

I don't think that's realistic. These are, as usual, fun games with numbers that don't have much to do with reality. Unless you're really expecting the Sheppard LRT to carry people from, say, their jobs in Ajax to their homes in Cooksville, and vice versa. It's a nice thought, but I don't think it's practical. And I think 14,000 an hour at peak is a number from around 1970, not today. The last I heard it's currently closer to 20,000 an hour through Toronto (AADT 2008 about 440,000), and that's averaged out over 24 hours. I would imagine the actual numbers during rush hours are two or three times that. If we ever have upwards of 50,000 people an hour crossing Sheppard to get to platforms, we can write it off as a thoroughfare.

When I mentioned gas, I wasn't talking about emptying the 401 or anything. The 401 suits a different purpose. I think the Sheppard line will do its work making northern Scarborough a better place to live if you work in more towards the centre of town and would like to leave the car at home. I think the Sheppard subway will largely suit the purpose of keeping cars from Markham and elsewhere in York from congesting Toronto.

 

[nfitz]

I don't think that's realistic.

And $14/Litre gas is?

 

[nfitz]

And I think 14,000 an hour at peak is a number from around 1970, not today.

14,000 is the design peak of a 7-lane expressway. That's all it can carry. Nothing to do with 1970 ... if it's 20,000 then it means that it's a complete and total mess, operating well above capacity. Is 20,000 in both directions?

Clearly if it ever came to that, there would be other options ... LRT is for local travel. It's a good replacement for Sheppard Avenue - not the 401. REX is what you replace 401 with.

 

[Ansem]

any chances there will be fences along the whole routes?

Fences would allow the LRT to be operated at full speed between stops and not worry about the jaywalkers we see on St.Clair and Spadina

 

[nfitz]

any chances there will be fences along the whole routes?

Fences would allow the LRT to be operated at full speed between stops and not worry about the jaywalkers we see on St.Clair and Spadina

No. The Spadina and St. Clair ROWs are designed to be crossed by pedestrians. You're not jay-walking, unless you are doing something dangerous. There's no law in this country about crossing the street in the middle of a block.

 

[W. K. Lis]

No. The Spadina and St. Clair ROWs are designed to be crossed by pedestrians. You're not jay-walking, unless you are doing something dangerous. There's no law in this country about crossing the street in the middle of a block.

Jay-walking is a 20th century invention. See this video from 1900, where traffic lights did not exist, keeping to right was not the law, and jay-walking was the norm.

[video=youtube;IJfTa5SjDCY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJfTa5SjDCY[/video]

 

[Ansem]

No. The Spadina and St. Clair ROWs are designed to be crossed by pedestrians. You're not jay-walking, unless you are doing something dangerous. There's no law in this country about crossing the street in the middle of a block.

Well, pedestrians shouldn't be able to cross the ROW except at intersections to make sure that the LRT vehicles can operate at optimal speed without having to break causing a delay.

This line should be operated like a rapid transit line is supposed to be operated, not like a streetcar