Mayor Olivia Chow's Toronto

[nightstreak]

In point of fact, virtually none of the above is true.

Jesus Christ, I don't believe you're going out of your way to not understand what I'm saying, you're legitimately misunderstanding. In short points:

1. A topic got picked up by the media, got the city talking, giving the Mayor leverage to assemble resources to solve the problem that hadn't been solvable before due to bureaucracy.
2. The mayor has the ability to drive the news cycle. Wherever the Mayor appears, a microphone and camera follows.
3. By using that ability, she can therefore kickstart the above cycle to give her leverage to solve an otherwise unsolvable problem.

When the mayor became aware of these issues she did order action taken to address them. Action she is now ordering applied to the entire streetcar network. Something no one had done before here.

Yes. We're agreeing here. THAT'S THE POINT!!! She was able to compile resources, coordinate departments and have city council on board to solve a big problem. The public attention on a matter gave her enormous power to override the usual bureaucratic roadblocks by other departments and levels of government.

Now do that with other hard problems. Intentionally drive the news cycle where she wants to melt usual bureaucracy by pointing the heat at them.

1) I like Josh, and I know Josh, ... but you're wildly exaggerating. That's taking nothing away from him, he has a deft populist touch.

It's a fictitious story to demonstrate how a Mayor could drive the media cycle to focus on a problem the Mayor wants to solve. I know Josh too and yes, I could totally see him doing something like this. Ask him.

2) Mamdani has not and will not deliver on most of his promises. I like his overall direction, but NYC is teetering on a fiscal cliff and much of what he wants requires state support. Free bus service is not yet a thing, nor is universal childcare, nor is a rent freeze.

I didn't claim he'll solve all problems. But taxing the rich? That this is the one that got done early in his term is kind of mind boggling.

To recap: A Mayor who knows how to leverage media (the press, and now social media) to focus public attention on a matter, wields power to solve big problems.

 

[urbanclient]

With respect you made specific assertions about fare evasion and rider safety that are not supported by any facts and not because the mayor is suppressing them.

I don't know if it's been done yet in this instance, but I think it's tolerable, even acceptable to question the accuracy/precision of statistics without wholly dismissing them. Specifically the TTC stats.

For example, offences against customers could be trending down despite the opposite being true, if many are not reported in the first place. Disclaimer: I am not saying anybody higher up is suppressing the stats. It may be as simple as special constables not wanting to do paperwork.

It's also possible for homeless loiterers to not incur any provincial or criminal offences. Or commit any reported offences against customers. Many offences and antisocial behaviours are not against any customer. An increase in homelessness and disruptiveness partly due to less fare enforcement is plausible IMO.

Thinking back to this:

https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2025/ttc/bgrd/backgroundfile-254417.pdf

What surprises me is that not a single person was arrested under the Controlled Drugs Act for 5 years, much less charged. An arrest in itself is a tool that law enforcement can use, even if they don't end up laying charges. And less than two dozen for public intoxication (or related) arrests or apprehensions(?) under the Liquor Act!

https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-42/session-1/bill-138

Similar case with Trespassing. Only 11 cases in 2024?
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I bring up sources that favour my public argument frequently, but stats can be imperfect (e.g. StatsCan admitting to some undercount of NPRs, but how much? Nobody knows with 100% certainty). There are certainly times where someone could dig up stats favouring a different argument than mine.

Earlier I questioned the ~29.6% fare evasion stat, just through my own experiences validated by the sentiment of others.

Do I have a better stat than the TTC? No. But given the vague methodology, I think there is real possibility of an underestimate. Did they use cameras to record fare evasion? Or did they have a notepad out while staring at everyone that boarded?

Methodology on page 5/31: https://cdn.ttc.ca/-/media/Project/...Mar-19/1_2023_Fare_Evasion_Study_Overview.pdf

I don't think its anywhere near 67%, moreover the fare revenue collected statistics do not support that conclusion.

Playing a bit of devil's advocate here, fare evasion was 38% for Door 4 of the streetcars, that's close enough to the low-end 40% (2 out of 5) that @nightstreak anecdotally reported. Late evening fare evasion for streetcars was above 40% (2200-0100), I would assume Door 3 and 4 would be approaching 60% (3 out of 5).

Also this:

much of what [Mamdani] wants requires state support.

That's what he got for the pied-à-terre tax, included in the yet to be passed state budget. A compromised version, but many would chalk it up as a win. Similar to the vacant home tax in some Ontario cities.

 

[Northern Light]

@urbanclient rather than go point by point here.......... let me bring this back to where the exchange started.

@nightstreak indicated that it was somehow Olivia Chow's fault that police weren't engaging in sufficient traffic enforcement against scooter/ebike drivers moreover that he would vote for Cllr Bradford, (an idiot) if only his said he would fix it.

I didn't think that was reasonable and said as much.

Then the goal post moved and suddenly the problem was that progresisives caused fare evasion or homelessness on the TTC etc.

I took that apart because there was no evidence for that position, it was extreme, and raised only after previous the position was taken apart.

I don't consider that a reasonable way to debate.

It seemed and seems very clear that the conclusion drawn 'Olivia Bad' was made prior to any evidence for same, then arguments were mustered after the fact to justify that conclusion, even though the facts don't support that.

Yes the statistics may well be imperfect, but again, so long as they are the same imperfect as in 2019 they are a reasonable basis for comparison and none better is on offer.

I won't argue anyone's preferences. If you don't like Olivia, that's fine, just like your favorite colour is pumpkin....swell, just don't tell you're voting for an idiot, because she's somehow is responsible for a problem that preceded her by several years or because her opponent may claim he can wave a magic wand and make things better.

My posts here show that I'm a regular critic of the City where I feel they come up short. Nothing wrong with stating the status quo is need of improving. Indeed it does.

I'm not here claiming Toronto is in a panacea, I simply have an allergy to exaggeration , overreach and illogic

I'm tired of the entire back and forth and have no willingness or desire to go further with it.

 

[picard102]

Yes, this. I rarely ever take a subway because I live and work downtown so I'm on the streetcar network 99% of the time.

So no source then for the claim that fare evasion on the TTC is 3 out of 5?

I could be wrong, but I think @nightstreak is talking about the streetcars. Anecdotally, fare dodging does seem to be worse on the streetcars. I've never even witnessed fare dodging on the subway, but maybe that's because I'm not paying attention.

Edit, yes:

I wouldn't be surprised if 29.6% is an underestimate for both 2023 and now.

Even if we're just looking at the streetcar numbers, that's still 1 in 5. Not 3 in 5.

 

[thettctransitfanatic]

Toronto: Chow 46%, Bradford 35%; Voters Split on Island Airport

April 17, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies survey show Mayor Olivia Chow holding a 11-point lead among decided voters while Councillor Brad Bradford sees a significant surge in support, particularly among younger demographics. If a mayoral election were held today among decided and...

press.liaisonstrategies.ca

Toronto: Chow 46%, Bradford 35%; Voters Split on Island Airport

A new Liaison Strategies survey show Mayor Olivia Chow holding a 11-point lead among decided voters while Councillor Brad Bradford sees a significant surge in support, particularly among younger demographics.

If a mayoral election were held today among decided and leaning voters, Olivia Chow would lead with 46% support, followed by Brad Bradford at 35% and Anthony Furey at 11%.

The survey also found support split on allowing jets to fly out of Billy Bishop Airport.

"Mayor Chow continues to dominate in the Downtown core and among older residents, but Brad Bradford has effectively tied her among voters aged 18-34 and holds a lead in Etobicoke. The city is also perfectly split on its trajectory, with an equal number of residents believing Toronto is moving in the right versus the wrong direction."

Mayoral Approval and City Direction

Approval Rating: Mayor Olivia Chow’s job approval stands at 56%, with 40% disapproving and 4% unsure.
Regional Divide: Her approval is highest in Downtown (67%) and lowest in Etobicoke (32%).

City Trajectory: Residents are evenly divided on the direction of the city, with 48% saying it is moving in the Right Direction and 48% saying Wrong Direction. This represents a shift from earlier in the year when Right Direction held a narrow lead.

"Toronto is split right down the middle on bringing jets to Billy Bishop, with 49% opposed and 46% in favour. That divide isn’t random, it’s driven by geography and age. Downtown residents are firmly against it, while younger voters (18–34) lean the other way. And where the airport actually impacts people, opposition hardens."

"Support is also pretty soft. The minute you start talking about losing parkland or harbour access, majorities flip against expansion. But if you frame it around economic upside or more business destinations, support jumps back up into the high 50s and low 60s. In other words, people like the idea, until there’s a tradeoff."

"What’s not up for debate is process. Two-thirds of the city thinks Toronto needs a say before anything happens. Most voters won’t decide an election on this alone, but there’s more upside for candidates opposing expansion than supporting it. And with 72% saying this matters for the future of the waterfront, this isn’t going away anytime soon."

 

[DrivingAlong]

"Mayor Chow continues to dominate in the Downtown core and among older residents, but Brad Bradford has effectively tied her among voters aged 18-34 and holds a lead in Etobicoke. The city is also perfectly split on its trajectory, with an equal number of residents believing Toronto is moving in the right versus the wrong direction."

Kinda curious about what they call "older residents."
Wouldn't those be the ones who remember her shambolic time on the police board as a commissioner from 99 to 2000, the co-op housing controversy,
and all the lousy optics that came with it?

 

[txlseries4]

Kinda curious about what they call "older residents."
Wouldn't those be the ones who remember her shambolic time on the police board as a commissioner from 99 to 2000, the co-op housing controversy,
and all the lousy optics that came with it?

Basically 35+. Here's the breakdown from the survey on the question "If an election were held today, for whom would you cast your vote for mayor?"

Everyone

Decided and leaning

The whole survey with questions and breakdowns is here:

https://storage.ghost.io/c/5a/2c/5a2c6702-fc8c-4232-bdc0-33fad8d71a80/content/files/2026/04/2026.04.17---Toronto-Pulse-Check.pdf

 

[christiesplits]

Basically 35+. Here's the breakdown from the survey on the question "If an election were held today, for whom would you cast your vote for mayor?"

Everyone
View attachment 729924

I'm curious how many of those 18-34 voters show up on election day. It's a tough constituency to drag to the polls, especially in municipal elections which have lower turnouts than provincial or federal elections.

 

[adma]

Kinda curious about what they call "older residents."
Wouldn't those be the ones who remember her shambolic time on the police board as a commissioner from 99 to 2000, the co-op housing controversy,
and all the lousy optics that came with it?

The ones most preoccupied with that staledated stuff would likelier be parking their vote with Furey than with Bradford.