Income Polarization in Toronto - The Three Cities study

[intervention]

What I wonder is if these maps factor in aging in place. While the "middle class" is definitely eroding, many of the city's inner suburbs are seeing their (generally) blue and white collar residents aging in place and perhaps this helps to explain the drop in individual income over time.

 

[Memph]

Fair enough. Likewise, Parkdale has fantastic transit access, and is relatively low income. Nevertheless, we do know that there is a correlation to poverty and access to rapid transit, so that does suggest that, at least occasionally, there's some pressure for gentrification. But I don't think it's anywhere near as bad as I previously asserted.

There can be some pressure, yes. I think it's mostly tied to the way urban economies are changing and the fact that much of the high paying jobs and most of the growth in high paying jobs is downtown (and a little chicken and egg in terms of whether it was gentrification or high paying jobs that lead to the other). Downtown is difficult to access by car, so places that have good transit to downtown have the potential to be desirable.

However, while I don't have the numbers off the top of my head, I'm pretty sure that even with the LRT projects, much of the neighbourhoods around Jane, Finch W or Sheppard E are still going to be a rather long transit ride from downtown, certainly quite a bit further than Riverdale or Davisville for instance. I'm sure someone living in these outlying neighbourhoods working in the core who can't afford to live closer will appreciate a reduction in commute times from 80 min to 60 min each way, but for wealthier Torontonians that's still too far and they can afford to live closer. And of course, a major purpose of many of these transit projects should be to significantly improve non-downtown bound trips.

Some of the wealth near transit lines has also been there for a while. I mean they might have gotten wealthier but North Toronto or Kingsway/High Park area have always been fairly desirable, even before they got subway service. On the other hand, the neighbourhoods around Keele/Dufferin/Weston/Eglinton/St Clair have always been pretty working class.

If you look at the wealth patterns in Montreal or Vancouver, Montreal has rather little correlation between wealth and subways, and in Vancouver it even seems to be a negative correlation to Sky-Train lines. In Calgary it seems to be non-existent to slightly negative for C-Train lines (poorest area is NE which has C-Train).

 

[Admiral Beez]

That's why the Temporary Foreign Worker program should be cancelled!

Not likely. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...foreign-worker-growth-report/article23418844/

 

[DarnDirtyApe]

So, basically the Parliamentary Budget Officer wants to maintain or increase inequality by ensuring that low-paying jobs stay that way:

“The main consequence of this shrinking of the lower-skilled labour force is that it is potentially harder for employers, at current wages, to find ‘suitable’ candidates, namely candidates whose skill level matches that of the position for which they apply,” states the report.

 

[James]

I just read a Fiscal Times article based on a recent U.S. study which I thought was somewhat relevant to our discussions about the income gap in Toronto. The study by Brookings Institution noted that "big cities continued to exhibit greater income disparities between rich and poor households than the rest of the country" but at the same time noted that "incomes grew faster for both the rich and poor in cities than they did elsewhere."

Link to article: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/03/19/Big-US-Cities-Show-Bigger-Income-Gap

Quick notes:

• Income inequality between the richest and lowest income residents of the 50 largest U.S. cities continues to grow.
• High and growing levels of income inequality continue to animate debates on politics and public policy.
• Big cities continued to exhibit greater income disparities between rich and poor households than the rest of the country.
• Incomes grew faster for both the rich and poor in cities than they did elsewhere.

 

[ksun]

. Encourage unionization

Are you sure unions are an effectively way of achieving "fairness"? Seriously?

75% of OPG's employees (90% of them unionized) make over $100,000 last year, do you think that's fair?

While the unionized public servants have a wage freeze since 2011, the unionized workers still get their salary bump every year, irrespectively of how poor the province is, does that sound fair?

Unionization never protect the most vulnerable workers who actually need protection, but rather provide undeserved cushion and job security to those who are already making too much who are ready to hijack the economy anytime they want something more (and unfair)

 

[nrb]

Are you sure unions are an effectively way of achieving "fairness"? Seriously?

75% of OPG's employees (90% of them unionized) make over $100,000 last year, do you think that's fair?

While the unionized public servants have a wage freeze since 2011, the unionized workers still get their salary bump every year, irrespectively of how poor the province is, does that sound fair?

Unionization never protect the most vulnerable workers who actually need protection, but rather provide undeserved cushion and job security to those who are already making too much who are ready to hijack the economy anytime they want something more (and unfair)

What you're saying doesn't make any sense, historically or factually.

 

[ksun]

What you're saying doesn't make any sense, historically or factually.

Let me ask this, when unions do decide to go on strike, is it because they think their wage/benefits are unfairly low compared with the general workforce with similar qualifications, or because they think they want and can get something additional as their employer will be afraid of the disruptive consequences? In 2009 (?) when TTC decided to walk away from their job stranding tens of thousands of passengers, was it because their salary and benefits are unfairly low compared with drivers, ticket collectors, operators in Canada in other line of busies? Or the garbage workers?

Does fairness mean "I want more" or "I want something fair in line with people with similar skills have"?

If "fairness" is what unions care about, then if their wage/salary is too high compared with the general society, will they ask for a reduction? That would be fair.

 

[nrb]

As for the vanishing middle class, if you're referring to the semi-skilled, lower educated folks who at one time could afford a house, then yes those jobs are gone. However where I live my neighbours include nurses, teachers, police, lawyers (regular sort, not ultra rich Bay streeters), and small business owners. These are the new middle class, with a skill or profession that makes them scarce but not milionaires.

All of these professions would make well over what is considered middle-class in this study (20% above or below 39k/year average). They would be closer to the high - very high income categories, 20-40% above the average income. Redefining the upper range as the " new middle class" is really missing the point of the income disparity that exists.

I'm not convinced those things would push people out of the city. Note how Bloordale and Crescent Town have had subway access for decades and pretty good bus service, but are still fairly ungentrified. And Bloordale is even somewhat historic with small scale urban fabric that seems to attract gentrification. It's not quite like Cabbagetown, but it still has a lot more "gentrification appeal" than Jane Finch or Rexdale which are much further from downtown, suburban built form and non-historic. I don't think improving transit to these outer areas would lead to such a huge increase in rents.

I just want to point out the data in this study is ten years old. Bloodale has definitely been extensively gentrified in that period.

Crescent Town is a different case because there is a structure to the neighbourhood that resists gentrification (huge towers that are difficult to demolish similar to other high rise low income neighbourhoods).

 

[nrb]

Let me ask this, when unions do decide to go on strike, is it because they think their wage/benefits are unfairly low compared with the general workforce with similar qualifications, or because they think they want and can get something additional as their employer will be afraid of the disruptive consequences? In 2009 (?) when TTC decided to walk away from their job stranding tens of thousands of passengers, was it because their salary and benefits are unfairly low compared with drivers, ticket collectors, operators in Canada in other line of busies? Or the garbage workers?

Does fairness mean "I want more" or "I want something fair in line with people with similar skills have"?

If "fairness" is what unions care about, then if their wage/salary is too high compared with the general society, will they ask for a reduction? That would be fair.

You're being very disingenuous (or stupid, I can't really tell) in only focusing on public sector unions. It doesn't really sound like you have even a basic grasp on how employee contracts are negotiated.

 

[Admiral Beez]

You're being very disingenuous (or stupid, I can't really tell) in only focusing on public sector unions. It doesn't really sound like you have even a basic grasp on how employee contracts are negotiated.

What does this contribute the discussion?

 

[Memph]

All of these professions would make well over what is considered middle-class in this study (20% above or below 39k/year average). They would be closer to the high - very high income categories, 20-40% above the average income. Redefining the upper range as the " new middle class" is really missing the point of the income disparity that exists.



I just want to point out the data in this study is ten years old. Bloodale has definitely been extensively gentrified in that period.

Crescent Town is a different case because there is a structure to the neighbourhood that resists gentrification (huge towers that are difficult to demolish similar to other high rise low income neighbourhoods).

I guess, but still, Bloordale started to gentrify, what, 40 years after the subway was built? Many neighbourhoods without as good transit were gentrified earlier.

And Crescent Town is pretty similar to the lower income suburban areas without rapid transit.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Interesting article here that suggests it's not only income that's polarizing but social divide.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/marriage-is-the-new-class-divide/article23545818/

While MW's articles are often filled with oversimplifications and generalizations, much of this piece runs true in my experience. My wife and I have a stable 16 year marriage, fiancial security has always been a focus, leading us to work smart and hard to pay off the house and focus on education, our kids go take Extended French and music at school, have stable home environments where reading, music (piano lessons at home, sax and violin at school) and learning are central, with tutors where needed, and no screen time whatsoever for the kids except for Friday nights and the weekends, with no tv in our livingroom or any bedrooms (tv is in dedicated tv room), if they need a computer for homework it's the desktop pc in the kitchen. I would say the girls are fit and healthy but not athletic, though one has asked for ski lessons that I might take with her (might be fun). I like my girls to have a strong money sense. We drive old cars, take family vacations twice a year, which are always saved and paid for before we go, and RESPs have been in place for the girls since birth (can you tell that I fear debt, and want the girls to think the same?)

We choose the above life for our family with the objective to giving our girls a headstart in life, as MW's article suggests. I can definitely see that people with different circumstances would face the article's social divide. Yes, you need income to live our life, but we're hardly rich and there's a ton or prioritizations and choices as well.

 

[King of Kensington]

In 1970, average income in Bloordale (census tract 97) was 70% of the Toronto CMA average. Since then, Tract 97 has been split into 2 tracts.

Tract 97.01:

1990 59%
2012 62%

Tract 97.02:

1990 62%
2012 68%

Being less affluent relative to the Toronto CMA today than it was in 1970 = "extensively gentrified"?

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_ha...p-continues-to-widen-finds-u-of-t-expert.html

 

[spider]

Interesting article here that suggests it's not only income that's polarizing but social divide.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/marriage-is-the-new-class-divide/article23545818/

While MW's articles are often filled with oversimplifications and generalizations, much of this piece runs true in my experience. My wife and I have a stable 16 year marriage, fiancial security has always been a focus, leading us to work smart and hard to pay off the house and focus on education, our kids go take Extended French and music at school, have stable home environments where reading, music (piano lessons at home, sax and violin at school) and learning are central, with tutors where needed, and no screen time whatsoever for the kids except for Friday nights and the weekends, with no tv in our livingroom or any bedrooms (tv is in dedicated tv room), if they need a computer for homework it's the desktop pc in the kitchen. I would say the girls are fit and healthy but not athletic, though one has asked for ski lessons that I might take with her (might be fun). I like my girls to have a strong money sense. We drive old cars, take family vacations twice a year, which are always saved and paid for before we go, and RESPs have been in place for the girls since birth (can you tell that I fear debt, and want the girls to think the same?)

We choose the above life for our family with the objective to giving our girls a headstart in life, as MW's article suggests. I can definitely see that people with different circumstances would face the article's social divide. Yes, you need income to live our life, but we're hardly rich and there's a ton or prioritizations and choices as well.

Has it ever occurred to you and your wife that the effort you are making to insulate your daughters from the real world to this extent could be damaging down the road when they make mistakes that could have been avoided had they been allowed the opportunity of seeing others making them first. I am not disparaging your efforts but suggest that they are not bullet proof.