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Income Polarization in Toronto - The Three Cities study

Has it ever occurred to you and your wife that the effort you are making to insulate your daughters from the real world to this extent could be damaging down the road when they make mistakes that could have been avoided had they been allowed the opportunity of seeing others making them first. I am not disparaging your efforts but suggest that they are not bullet proof.
That's what we like about downtown east living. The kids definitely aren't sheltered and have been exposed to homeless folks and the rest of downtown grit. And learning through failure is a big thing for us. No sheltered princesses here.
 
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This has the individual income map for 2010 for the CMA. The increase in low and very low income areas has continued in the suburban parts of the GTA, especially in Malvern, Miliken, Rexdale, Malton and Brampton, although it seems to have slowed down compared to 2000-2005. Gentrification continues in the core, and in some more desirable inner suburban area like Central Etobicoke. The lower income ~1960s suburbia of Scarborough, Jane Finch and Downsview seems to have stabilized and/or hit rock bottom.

https://knowledgex.camh.net/researc...i - Toronto's Growing Divide Nov-2012 ppt.pdf

One of the things you seem to be starting to see is increased poverty in single family suburban neighbourhoods. Before with the 60s/70s suburbs it was largely high rise/apartment communities with the single family housing in those communities remaining more or less middle class. Brampton and Miliken seem to have less diversity in housing stock (or demographics for that matter). Before the 60s/70s suburbs declined, you had poverty in more single family neighbourhoods like Eglinton West but they were urban and on a street grid.

The other thing about Brampton is that it's pretty isolated from Toronto. Unlike Miliken it's not really part of Toronto's street grid, and further away, so it seems less likely to have good transit connections to Toronto. Also GO transit to Brampton is pretty limited, as opposed to Markham and Miliken which have almost twice as many GO stations and barely half the population. The other plus is that with Markham, it's mostly just Miliken that's declining, other parts of the city are doing ok, and Markham is a pretty big employment centre. Brampton has fewer jobs, a lot of the residents work in Vaughan or Mississauga, and it seems like just about the whole city is experiencing a drop in incomes, with only a few exceptions. Finally, Brampton is growing very fast right now, which means a lot of development fees and new tax base with little associated infrastructure maintenance, and an influx of residents that are probably a bit closer to middle class (though increasingly on the low end of middle class it seems?). Brampton looks like it could get into some serious financial difficulties if it continues to be increasingly on the low end of the income distribution + relatively low non-residential tax revenue + suburban growth ponzi scheme collapse issues (see here.

At this rate, Brampton in a decade might look like Scarborough today, but more isolated from Toronto, less employment and without the tax base of the wealthier and denser parts of Toronto (btw it seems Scarborough in 1998 was pretty similar to Brampton in the early 00s).

Some of these issues are related to the growing disparity in incomes in general, but I think a big part of it is just the general pattern of suburban decline. I used to live in Brampton in the 90s, does anyone live there now? Do you think the stats are accurate? Is Brampton transitioning from middle class to lower-middle class/working class? (not necessarily truly lower class, at least for now). If it is I really hope the trend slows down although I'm not sure how that could happen because it seems like it could be pretty disastrous.
 
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Speaking of Brampton vs Scarborough, where do you guys see the future of Scarborough?

I know it has a bad rep right now, but the parts I've visited have left me with a pretty good impression.

Transit: obviously are lots of plans for rapid transit, but even the current TTC bus grid still seems much better than the 905. I see plenty of buses.

In terms of streetscape and urban design, I think I'd prefer the strip malls of Scarborough to newer suburban places like parts of Brampton or Mississauga. I like that the strip malls don't have a vast sea of parking, but relatively smaller parking lots. The strip malls can be ugly, but they have character, culture & interesting shops. Also I find that Scarborough is incredible for food. The selection of interesting restaurants is amazing, which I'm assuming is due to the immigrant populations in the 'borough (as Drake calls it).

Also the Bluffs are amazing. If some rapid transit lines were built and parts of it were more urbanized, I think it could be improved quite a lot. For example if when the Eglinton Crosstown is built, some of those big box stores near Eglinton fill in their parking lots with new development. If GO runs frequent service on the Stouffville line and the Sheppard LRT is built, it would really help as well. Especially the GO Stouffville line (SmartTrack & RER).
 
I grew up in Scarborough and have no idea where the bad rep comes from. At all.
Granted, I haven't lived there since October 2000, but have frequented my old neighbourhood due to friend connections ever since. The neighbourhood I grew up in was a sort of mixed middle income (with some small pockets of higher income) and low income place (with a couple of pockets of rather disturbing housing estates thrown in). It has housed successive waves of new immigrants ever since I first moved there (1990). (Bonus points to those who remember the Nicaraguans and Salvadorans from the early, early 90s)

I see it as largely unchanged in the last 25 years in terms of income levels within the neighbourhood with one exception: the horrid housing estates seem to be nicer places in which to live now than they were even 10 years ago (not to mention the early 90s *shudder*).
On top of all of this, the crime rate (in keeping with general trends) ain't sh*t compared to what it was like in the early to mid 90s. So, while the neighbourhood's residents may be poorer in relation to their central city compatriots, I'd venture to say that they are better off than they were 10, 20, and 25 years ago.

This is, of course, simply my personal on-the-ground experience as well as that of current and former residents who I am familiar with.

I realise what I have written here can be seen as a sort of apologist's view of income inequality. It shouldn't be construed as such. I am fully aware of the dangers of income inequality. I am simply putting forward a hopeful and optimistic viewpoint of the situation re: my little corner of Scarborough.
 
I grew up in Scarborough and have no idea where the bad rep comes from. At all.
Granted, I haven't lived there since October 2000, but have frequented my old neighbourhood due to friend connections ever since. The neighbourhood I grew up in was a sort of mixed middle income (with some small pockets of higher income) and low income place (with a couple of pockets of rather disturbing housing estates thrown in). It has housed successive waves of new immigrants ever since I first moved there (1990). (Bonus points to those who remember the Nicaraguans and Salvadorans from the early, early 90s)

I see it as largely unchanged in the last 25 years in terms of income levels within the neighbourhood with one exception: the horrid housing estates seem to be nicer places in which to live now than they were even 10 years ago (not to mention the early 90s *shudder*).
On top of all of this, the crime rate (in keeping with general trends) ain't sh*t compared to what it was like in the early to mid 90s. So, while the neighbourhood's residents may be poorer in relation to their central city compatriots, I'd venture to say that they are better off than they were 10, 20, and 25 years ago.

This is, of course, simply my personal on-the-ground experience as well as that of current and former residents who I am familiar with.

I realise what I have written here can be seen as a sort of apologist's view of income inequality. It shouldn't be construed as such. I am fully aware of the dangers of income inequality. I am simply putting forward a hopeful and optimistic viewpoint of the situation re: my little corner of Scarborough.

Well Toronto basically has quadrants in terms of incomes. NW of the city (and Malton) is one lower income quadrant, E of the city is the other. However while the eastern lower income quadrant corresponds quite well to the Scarborough boundaries, there's no name for the NW area, only names for the individual neighbourhoods. So I think that's part of it.

Anyways though, the numbers seem to show that the SW corner of Scarborough is starting to get wealthier and gentrify a little. The areas a bit further out but still south of the 401 and west of Morningside have declined in income up until now but I'd expect that to stabilize soon. They'll probably remain a mix of middle and lower income, but could see increased demand from people who can't afford to live closer to the core, especially if transit is improved (Eglinton LRT, Scarborough Subway). Areas around Lake Ontario seem to be fairly stable middle class. North of the 401 seems to be have been experiencing greater declines in income in the last decade, although I'm not sure how long that'll go on.

The bungalow areas of Scarborough, especially closer to the core could potentially see some tear-down activity. That's not something that's going to happen in the northern parts of Scarborough where the houses are already 2 storeys and on small lots.

I don't think any part of Toronto is that bad. A lot of the "low income" parts of Toronto actually have a larger middle class than the "middle income" areas because the middle income areas are more of a mix of high and low while the low income areas are more of a mix of low and middle. So I would say that poverty in Toronto is not quite as concentrated as in some American cities.
 
Speaking of Brampton vs Scarborough, where do you guys see the future of Scarborough?

I know it has a bad rep right now, but the parts I've visited have left me with a pretty good impression.

Transit: obviously are lots of plans for rapid transit, but even the current TTC bus grid still seems much better than the 905. I see plenty of buses.

In terms of streetscape and urban design, I think I'd prefer the strip malls of Scarborough to newer suburban places like parts of Brampton or Mississauga. I like that the strip malls don't have a vast sea of parking, but relatively smaller parking lots. The strip malls can be ugly, but they have character, culture & interesting shops. Also I find that Scarborough is incredible for food. The selection of interesting restaurants is amazing, which I'm assuming is due to the immigrant populations in the 'borough (as Drake calls it).

Also the Bluffs are amazing. If some rapid transit lines were built and parts of it were more urbanized, I think it could be improved quite a lot. For example if when the Eglinton Crosstown is built, some of those big box stores near Eglinton fill in their parking lots with new development. If GO runs frequent service on the Stouffville line and the Sheppard LRT is built, it would really help as well. Especially the GO Stouffville line (SmartTrack & RER).

I kind of get what you mean. The stroady nature of much of Scarborough kind of sucks, but otherwise there is a certain sense of character and vibrancy. A lot of the older strip malls are built with brick and have 2nd storeys, so maybe that's also part of it. They're also smaller and seem to have more varied shop fronts. The greater abundance of non-chains is probably part of it too but not everything.

I would say Downsview, Jane/Lawrence, Thistletown and Cooksville have a similar sort of "suburban vibrancy" to Scarborough.
 
I grew up in Scarborough and have no idea where the bad rep comes from. At all.
Scarborough does get an unfair rep. It's not all crime ridden projects, even during the 1990s. I grew up at Fallingbrook and Kingston Road, and my parents now live south of Kingston Rd. near mcCowan. These two areas of Scarborough are IMO some of the nicest places to live in Toronto, with highly educated and successful families living in million dollar homes. Scarborough isn't all gangsta ville.
 
I kind of get what you mean. The stroady nature of much of Scarborough kind of sucks, but otherwise there is a certain sense of character and vibrancy. A lot of the older strip malls are built with brick and have 2nd storeys, so maybe that's also part of it. They're also smaller and seem to have more varied shop fronts. The greater abundance of non-chains is probably part of it too but not everything.

I would say Downsview, Jane/Lawrence, Thistletown and Cooksville have a similar sort of "suburban vibrancy" to Scarborough.

Yeah, I prefer those strip malls & plazas, which at least face the road, to big box stores where the stores face into a massive parking lot. Or malls.

You guys are right, my impression of Scarborough has been pretty good. The housing, retail, everything seems to be in good shape from what I've seen.
 
I feel in the future the highways will start to have more psychological and physical meaning with respect to how we define income in the city rather than the old ideas about municipal boundaries etc.

I know there are some high income areas in this strip but I think the area between the 401 and 407 will continue to be the area where poverty will concentrate. Maybe local slang will start to refer to living North of 401 (in Toronto speak) and for the outer suburbs south of 407.
 
1920px-Guild_Park_ruins.JPG

This is among the most beautiful parts of Scarborough. Without context, especially those who are not familiar with Guildwood, many people would assume otherwise.
 
Not sure if anyone's read the short Toronto Life interview with David Hulchanski, the U of T professor behind the Toronto "Three Cities" report. Here is the source and the article:

http://www.torontolife.com/informer...t-professor-sounding-alarm-income-inequality/

Q&A: David Hulchanski, the U of T professor sounding the alarm on income inequality

David Hulchanski has been thinking about affordability and cities ever since he moved here from upstate New York in the late ’60s (tuition was cheaper in Canada). After decades of research, the University of Toronto professor is currently best known for his series of “Three Cities†reports, which detail the steady disappearance of middle-income neighbourhoods in Toronto and other Canadian cities. Over the years, Hulchanski has emerged as the voice of scientific inquiry into income polarization in Canada, his name regularly invoked in legislative chambers and in the media. We asked him about growing inequality in Toronto, what the loss of the mandatory long-form census means for his research, and making $1.25 an hour at his first job.

How did you become so invested in the idea of inequality?
I was always involved in issues like this, right from high school, and I just continued. As a professor, part of my job is research. In the past ten years we’ve had a couple of very large social science research grants focused on income inequality, income polarization, and how cities and neighbourhoods are changing. This is during a period where income inequality and income polarization are dramatically growing.


And then there was the Occupy movement. Some people say, “oh, what did it achieve?†It put inequality on the broad public agenda. People have been writing about poverty forever, but poverty is about one defined group within society, whereas income inequality is about what is happening to everyone in society.


Why is that an important distinction for you?
It’s moving on from a narrow discussion. I think poverty was a proper discussion in its day, which was, frankly, the ’50s and ’60s. It’s in the ’80s and especially the ’90s that everything changed. We introduced tax cuts and tax breaks to help people who pay a lot of taxes, not those who pay very little taxes. We began redistributing income up. We’re now 25 years into this, so there’s plenty of data to illustrate that the issue is growing income inequality, and the growing redistribution of income from the middle upward, putting more and more people in the lowest group, with minimum wage jobs and all that.

My first job was in the late ’60s as a busboy at Woolworth’s. I made $1.25 an hour. If you inflation-adjust that to today, it’s near $10 an hour. It’s only recently that the minimum wage here reached $10 an hour, and now it’s a touch higher, but all prices are way higher today. I left university with no debt. It was a different world.

Your research has earned a lot of media attention in recent years. How have you managed to do that?
Just by doing our best. You get to know some reporters, you make some judgement calls. The first “Three Cities†report came out in 2007 and covered a period up until 2001. It was my decision to contact the Globe and Mail rather than the Toronto Star to say, “We have this report and here’s what it shows. Are you interested?†They wanted an exclusive and we said yes. They put it on their front page.

Your landmark “Three Cities†research on inequality in Toronto wouldn’t have been possible without the mandatory long-form census, which was eliminated in 2011. What happens if it never comes back?
When we submitted the proposal for the social science research grant we now have, we said that our research may have to be, in effect, historical research covering 1971 to 2006. From ’71 on, the census has been consistent and highly professional, and we can study trends during that period. We still have individual income data from the Canada Revenue Agency, so we can still update income, which is vitally important in the study of inequality and inequality trends. But we can’t link any of that CRA income data to other demographic characteristics—like age, ethnicity or immigration. That’s what has been lost.

Why is Toronto so sharply divided between rich and poor?
Four things explain Toronto’s situation, and while cities can do something, they can’t do much. First is the labour market. Most people work, and most new jobs are not quality paying jobs with benefits. It’s the provinces and the feds that make rules about the labour market, about unionization. Then comes housing, the most expensive budget item for the average person. Housing prices are outpacing inflation. Then there are cutbacks to social benefits. We exited World War II talking about social security. We got rid of all that. Finally, what don’t Canadians talk about? Discrimination. Where do you find newspaper articles, magazine articles, about discrimination in Canada? Housing discrimination, labour market discrimination, education discrimination. Oh, we’re not as bad as the United States? Well, I hope so! But Canadians don’t live in the United States.

So, are you for redistribution from the rich back to the middle?
Out there in society, anybody who mentions redistribution is jumped on, as if it’s some sort of crazy idea. It isn’t. We are doing redistribution right now, and we’ve been doing it for years. How is it that so much more of our national income goes to a minority at the top? It’s larger than the one per cent—it’s the top 10 per cent or 15 per cent. People with good jobs, like tenured professors and other professionals, are doing really well compared to our equivalents twenty years ago, whereas the rest of the population compared to their equivalents twenty years ago are doing way worse. We are engaged in redistribution. We’ve got to stop redistributing income to the top. They don’t need it.
 
Scarborough does get an unfair rep. It's not all crime ridden projects, even during the 1990s. I grew up at Fallingbrook and Kingston Road, and my parents now live south of Kingston Rd. near mcCowan. These two areas of Scarborough are IMO some of the nicest places to live in Toronto, with highly educated and successful families living in million dollar homes. Scarborough isn't all gangsta ville.

Oh....well, yeah, you're talking about the wealthy bits! ;)

I grew up near Cedarbrae and Woburn. Scarborough Golf Club Road. *sigh* So fond of the place, in spite of its shitty suburbanness.
 
Why is Toronto so sharply divided between rich and poor?
Four things explain Toronto’s situation, and while cities can do something, they can’t do much. First is the labour market. Most people work, and most new jobs are not quality paying jobs with benefits. It’s the provinces and the feds that make rules about the labour market, about unionization. Then comes housing, the most expensive budget item for the average person. Housing prices are outpacing inflation. Then there are cutbacks to social benefits. We exited World War II talking about social security. We got rid of all that. Finally, what don’t Canadians talk about? Discrimination. Where do you find newspaper articles, magazine articles, about discrimination in Canada? Housing discrimination, labour market discrimination, education discrimination. Oh, we’re not as bad as the United States? Well, I hope so! But Canadians don’t live in the United States.

So, are you for redistribution from the rich back to the middle?
Out there in society, anybody who mentions redistribution is jumped on, as if it’s some sort of crazy idea. It isn’t. We are doing redistribution right now, and we’ve been doing it for years. How is it that so much more of our national income goes to a minority at the top? It’s larger than the one per cent—it’s the top 10 per cent or 15 per cent. People with good jobs, like tenured professors and other professionals, are doing really well compared to our equivalents twenty years ago, whereas the rest of the population compared to their equivalents twenty years ago are doing way worse. We are engaged in redistribution. We’ve got to stop redistributing income to the top. They don’t need it.

While Hulchanski's research is very valuable, his policy prescriptions belie his lack of expertise in economics (he is part of the Faculty of Social Work, after all). Ontario's tax rates are steeply progressive past $75,000 (at $90K the marginal rate is 43.8%) and there are a wide range of benefits targeted at low income households. There is no "redistributing income to the top", in reality middle/upper middle income taxpayers pay the bulk of income taxes that support the social safety net, healthcare and education for all.

Most new jobs have low pay because they have low productivity.

Housing is expensive because enough people can afford high prices.

Toronto is stratified because of globalization, technological change and immigration.
 
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My latest blog post: Rexdale (North Etobicoke) is the federal electoral district with the largest middle class in the City of Toronto.
http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/06/rexdale-bastion-of-torontos-middle-class.html

That's followed by Central Scarborough (Bendale, Wexford, Ionview) and Humber River-Black Creek (Jane-Finch and adjacent neighbourhoods) and Scarborough North (Milliken, Sandhurst, Malvern West, Agincourt East). Basically the most middle class parts of Toronto are the ones with the lowest average incomes.

There are parts of the 905 with a larger middle class though, most notably Brampton.

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I also looked at the other income brackets.

It seems like even the upper-middle class (2nd & 3rd deciles) is finding North Toronto too expensive?

And how would you explain the low income population in University-Rosedale and Willowdale? Students and young adults in room-mate arrangements?
 
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