How many runs does oil have left??

[Admiral Beez]

It's only a matter of time before there is enough critical mass of EVs to necessitate the infrastructure.

Absolutely agree. The question was how much time, not the existence of time itself. My guess is by the mid 2030s, or about 14-15 years.

Electric cars are fine for commuting/errands in the city. I travel with my job. Charging stations are few and far between in the smaller towns. My neighbor has a Tesla, he takes his wife's gas powered Honda Civic, when they go to the cottage or travel to the US.

I wonder if the era of the family road trip is coming to an end, at least using one's own car. Instead you may need to rent a long range EV and then swap out battery packs along the way.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Absolutely agree. The question was how much time, not the existence of time itself. My guess is by the mid 2030s, or about 14-15 years.

I wonder if the era of the family road trip is coming to an end, at least using one's own car. Instead you may need to rent a long range EV and then swap out battery packs along the way.

I suspect it will happen faster - especially since US will be in that game full force.

AoD

 

[Admiral Beez]

I suspect it will happen faster - especially since US will be in that game full force.

Not if a Trumpist wins in 2024. That country swings so unpredictably that IDK.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Not if a Trumpist wins in 2024. That country swings so unpredictably that IDK.

It could swing however which way it want to - it doesn't change the trends - electric is here to stay, and to dominate. If they don't lead, they will be following and ceding that technological edge - and I don't think any US president can afford that.

AoD

 

[Admiral Beez]

Have you driven an electric car? If you get a car allowance, why not buy one? They are more fun to drive than 20 y/o VWs.

On the golf course, yes. I expect our next car will be fully electric, likely by 2030. I hate pumping gas, especially in downtown east with the beggars, filth and noise, like something at a bazaar in Indiana Jones or on Tatooine. Fully electric cars further advances my idea of having control over ones physical interactions with other people.

 

[Jonny5]

How many bull runs do you guys think oil has left before electric cars completely take over??
I say one for sure and perhaps and 2nd one, but no more than that.

Opinions??

The question is a bit confusing, but it really depends on both the supply side and the demand side. Cars and all other vehicles are far from the only users of refined crude oil; all the other users are in play too, and many of those users are not going away quickly, and may see a very big surge in the near future. There's reportedly massive pent up demand for long-distance global travel, so jet fuel may have a 12 or 24 month period of huge demand that could cause another mini-spike in prices, even profitable enough to siphon off gasoline production, which would cause price spikes at the pumps here.

In the longer term, if supply starts trailing off in anticipation of a drop in demand, and the demand does not drop as quickly as anticipated there's a path for a longer term bull market. If there has been one constant in the past few decades, it's that the speed and demand for refined oil products declines far less than projected, and often still manages to increase when it is widely believe to have peaked. Or, to put it another way, change in global energy use is always far slower than even well-informed people expect.

EDIT: Another note is people have totally discounted the money that is backing technological enhancement and innovations to gasoline engines for cars and fuel efficiency. That has never gone away. There's a lot in play there to keep them in the game, and even ahead of electric cars for a long enough time, all of which can be easily marketed to consumers as "green". Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sudden breakthroughs that raise fuel efficiency in gasoline engine cars significantly in the next 10 years to keep them competitive. Some of those innovations we may discover could have been done a long time ago but they would put upward price on the initial cost of the car.

My personal expectation is that by 2050, the developed world will still not reach 20% of personal vehicles as electric, and the world as a whole will be under 5%.

 

[afransen]

Absolutely agree. The question was how much time, not the existence of time itself. My guess is by the mid 2030s, or about 14-15 years.

I wonder if the era of the family road trip is coming to an end, at least using one's own car. Instead you may need to rent a long range EV and then swap out battery packs along the way.

Charging is going to make a lot more sense. Show me a family that does not need to stop every hour or two anyway because of diaper changes, little bladders, hunger, crankiness.

A Tesla can gain enough range in 20-30 minutes to drive for 3 hours.

 

[afransen]

Another note is people have totally discounted the money that is backing technological enhancement and innovations to gasoline engines for cars and fuel efficiency. That has never gone away. There's a lot in play there to keep them in the game, and even ahead of electric cars for a long enough time, all of which can be easily marketed to consumers as "green". Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sudden breakthroughs that raise fuel efficiency in gasoline engine cars significantly in the next 10 years to keep them competitive. Some of those innovations we may discover could have been done a long time ago but they would put upward price on the initial cost of the car.

If commitments to cut emissions by 50% from 2005 by 2030 are serious, governments are really going to be turning the screws on fossil fuels. I expect us to be pushing European levels of fuel taxation.

My personal expectation is that by 2050, the developed world will still not reach 20% of personal vehicles as electric, and the world as a whole will be under 5%.

This is ludicrous. You know that many European countries are banning ICE vehicles, right?

 

[Admiral Beez]

This is ludicrous.

Goodness, that’s a little strong. @Fresco asks us how long, the man gives an answer and he’s ludicrous?

 

[afransen]

Half the developed world has banned new ICE vehicle sales! Ludicrous is too strong, but the answer did not consider the proposed bans in many countries on new ICE vehicle sales. You can disbelieve that countries will stick with those bans much like countries slip on emissions reductions, but the fact is governments made those promises because they were popular with their electorate and there are feasible replacements for most ICE vehicles being brought to market.

Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Admiral Beez]

Ludicrous is too strong

Agreed. Let’s dial back the hyperbole. My vote is another 14 years, so 2035. And that’s with a forced government ban of ICE new car sales in 2030 and a regulation that existing ICE cars must be off the road by 2039 (giving those sold in 2029 ten years of use).

We are seeing the end soon of the private mechanic business. That’s tens of thousands of professionals out of work. That’s progress, some get left behind, but we’d better have something for them to move to, and colleges had better scale back their auto mechanic courses. Cars will become like disposable cell phones. Does Canada even have a means to scrap expired EVs?

 

[lenaitch]

Agreed. Let’s dial back the hyperbole. My vote is another 14 years, so 2035. And that’s with a forced government ban of ICE new car sales in 2030 and a regulation that existing ICE cars must be off the road by 2039 (giving those sold in 2029 ten years of use).

We are seeing the end soon of the private mechanic business. That’s tens of thousands of professionals out of work. That’s progress, some get left behind, but we’d better have something for them to move to, and colleges had better scale back their auto mechanic courses. Cars will become like disposable cell phones. Does Canada even have a means to scrap expired EVs?

I'm kinda missing the point about 'disposable cars', Admiral. Is there some believe that EVs will become super cheap? True that the need for mechanical services will change, but there will still be a need to service suspension, tires, bodies, cooling and electrical systems, etc.

 

[afransen]

EVs still require service, just far less. There are few moving parts compared to an ICE car. I don't think EVs will become disposable. If anything, the battery pack has a potential second life beyond the life of the vehicle. Cell phones are not designed to preserve the battery and as a result, the battery is subjected to a lot of abuse (very high and very low state of charge, poor thermal management, etc). On the other hand, EVs are designed to baby the battery, and maintain it within ideal operating temperate ranges and software to encourage owners not to abuse the battery.

 

[Jonny5]

If commitments to cut emissions by 50% from 2005 by 2030 are serious, governments are really going to be turning the screws on fossil fuels. I expect us to be pushing European levels of fuel taxation.


This is ludicrous. You know that many European countries are banning ICE vehicles, right?

I am fully aware of what "many European countries" are doing, and the relevancy of that to the greater world. That's why I gave 20%.
Though I will allow that 20% could be exceeded somewhat on a metric of the 'distance of private vehicles actually driven on the road.'

 

[Admiral Beez]

EVs still require service, just far less.

Yes, but they won't be serviced by independent mechanics, but instead the software will lock them out, forcing owners to return to Tesla, or whichever brand for pricey dealer service.