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How many runs does oil have left??

Fresco

Fresco

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How many bull runs do you guys think oil has left before electric cars completely take over??
I say one for sure and perhaps and 2nd one, but no more than that.

Opinions??
 
Why can't it have a bull run in a world of declining demand and production? If production drops off faster than demand due to underinvestment, could it not cause bull runs?
 
Not sure if you mean share prices, crude prices or market demand. As alternative transportation options gain traction, The industry's heyday will no doubt wane but it's not going to go away until other technologies are found or a massive social shift takes place. This website lists products made from crude. Another site claims 6600 products but doesn't list them.
 
lenaitch said:
Not sure if you mean share prices, crude prices or market demand. As alternative transportation options gain traction, The industry's heyday will no doubt wane but it's not going to go away until other technologies are found or a massive social shift takes place. This website lists products made from crude. Another site claims 6600 products but doesn't list them.
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If/when renewables become very cheap and widely deployed, we can choose to use a lot of batteries to shift production to when it is needed, or produce more power at peak times so that only a small % of the time there is a shortfall in renewables production to meet grid demand. Then all the remaining surplus power can be plowed into chemical synthesis (hydrogen, methane, ammonia, etc.) which can become the feedstock for the chemicals industry.
 
Fresco said:
How many bull runs do you guys think oil has left before electric cars completely take over??
I say one for sure and perhaps and 2nd one, but no more than that.

Opinions??
Click to expand...
At least another 30 years. Internal combustion cars can reliably and cost efficiently run for decades. My VW is 22 years old and still running fine, my Suzuki motorcycle is 40 years old and still runs like new. We recently bought a new Subaru for my wife and I expect we‘ll still be running it in 2035. I bet if I buy an electric car today it won’t be running in 2035, due to planned obsolescence of its IOS and battery.

Unless..... the federal government forces an age limit on cars, like they do in Singapore, Japan and in some Caribbean nations, where no car older than 10 years or some age cannot be registered. But I don’t see that flying in Canada, especially since Alberta basically depends on gas. And Canadians are not a wealthy people, a lot of us depend on old junkers to get to work and about. When a new 400 km range five seat electric car is available for under $20k incl. tax, that’s when we’ll start to see the lines intersect.
 
Admiral Beez said:
At least another 30 years. Internal combustion cars can reliably and cost efficiently run for decades. My VW is 22 years old and still running fine, my Suzuki motorcycle is 40 years old and still runs like new. We recently bought a new Subaru for my wife and I expect we‘ll still be running it in 2035. I bet if I buy an electric car today it won’t be running in 2035, due to planned obsolescence of its IOS and battery.

Unless..... the federal government forces an age limit on cars, like they do in Singapore, Japan and in some Caribbean nations, where no car older than 10 years or some age cannot be registered. But I don’t see that flying in Canada, especially since Alberta basically depends on gas. And Canadians are not a wealthy people, a lot of us depend on old junkers to get to work and about. When a new 400 km range five seat electric car is available for under $20k incl. tax, that’s when we’ll start to see the lines intersect.
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They can make fossil fuels expensive through mechanisms like carbon tax. That will push the ICE fleet out of use. Cars in use >20 years is more the exception than the rule.
 
afransen said:
They can make fossil fuels expensive through mechanisms like carbon tax. That will push the ICE fleet out of use. Cars in use >20 years is more the exception than the rule.
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What Canada and the west needs is a carbon tariff. We may feel proud driving a battery-powered car, but the cost of mining and creating that battery is massive. And unless we make the batteries here in Canada a punitive carbon tax on gas punishes our domestic energy sources while driving demand to foreign energy sources.... not smart for the economy, just look at the semi conductor shortage today because China is choking supply. Do we really want to be beholden to a communist, genocidal dictatorship for our daily transport.

I dislike punitive taxes. You want me to take public transit, but the service sucks..... so instead of making it superlative you make the alternative that already meets the service requirement (i.e. cars) so expensive that the public transit option is forced upon any that can't afford the new punitive taxes. My car is used almost exclusively for work, I am fully compensated for any fuel I buy and the millage.... if you want to get me, and anyone else who can afford a carbon tax into electric cars we need to do better than punitive fees. Instead make it an amazing experience.
 
Admiral Beez said:
What Canada and the west needs is a carbon tariff. We may feel proud driving a battery-powered car, but the cost of mining and creating that battery is massive. And unless we make the batteries here in Canada a punitive carbon tax on gas punishes our domestic energy sources while driving demand to foreign energy sources.... not smart for the economy, just look at the semi conductor shortage today because China is choking supply. Do we really want to be beholden to a communist, genocidal dictatorship for our daily transport.

I dislike punitive taxes. You want me to take public transit, but the service sucks..... so instead of making it superlative you make the alternative that already meets the service requirement (i.e. cars) so expensive that the public transit option is forced upon any that can't afford the new punitive taxes. My car is used almost exclusively for work, I am fully compensated for any fuel I buy and the millage.... if you want to get me, and anyone else who can afford a carbon tax into electric cars we need to do better than punitive fees. Instead make it an amazing experience.
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We've always seemed to be content as 'hewers of wood and drawers of water', where our raw resources are shipped off to others to make value-added products from them, then sell them back to us. Even at the resource level, which many people don't support in the first place, a lot of the extraction and processing can benefit from electricity and other sources (assuming they are accessible), but exploration and proving require energy and still take place in the middle of the bush.

Personal and commercial land transportation are, admittedly, a big sector, but not the only one. I'm not enough of a scientist to comment on whether chemical synthesis can fill all the gaps that would be left. The carbon atom has proven itself to be pretty versatile.
 
Admiral Beez said:
What Canada and the west needs is a carbon tariff. We may feel proud driving a battery-powered car, but the cost of mining and creating that battery is massive. And unless we make the batteries here in Canada a punitive carbon tax on gas punishes our domestic energy sources while driving demand to foreign energy sources.... not smart for the economy, just look at the semi conductor shortage today because China is choking supply. Do we really want to be beholden to a communist, genocidal dictatorship for our daily transport.

I dislike punitive taxes. You want me to take public transit, but the service sucks..... so instead of making it superlative you make the alternative that already meets the service requirement (i.e. cars) so expensive that the public transit option is forced upon any that can't afford the new punitive taxes. My car is used almost exclusively for work, I am fully compensated for any fuel I buy and the millage.... if you want to get me, and anyone else who can afford a carbon tax into electric cars we need to do better than punitive fees. Instead make it an amazing experience.
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Taxes work, and are cost effective. That's the reality. It makes sense that many/most may not like it, because it makes them change their behaviour. The goal of carbon taxes is not to force everyone onto public transit. It is to narrow the gap between carbon-powered uses and renewable/electric or energy efficiency investments. It will help encourage people to upgrade the windows in their home, consider a heat pump instead of a furnace/AC, get an electric car (BEV of PHEV) for your next purchase.

Have you driven an electric car? If you get a car allowance, why not buy one? They are more fun to drive than 20 y/o VWs.
 
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crude oil has many other uses then just gasoline , look it up like plastics , feedstock , Plexiglass, asphalt ,clothing etc..
think about how much minerals & oil is required to build this green economy they are planning
we will be using it for long time
 
Electric cars are fine for commuting/errands in the city. I travel with my job. Charging stations are few and far between in the smaller towns. My neighbor has a Tesla, he takes his wife's gas powered Honda Civic, when they go to the cottage or travel to the US.
 
slickpete83 said:
crude oil has many other uses then just gasoline , look it up like plastics , feedstock , Plexiglass, asphalt ,clothing etc..
think about how much minerals & oil is required to build this green economy they are planning
we will be using it for long time
Click to expand...

Only 21% of oil is used for non-fuel purposes in Canada - and this ain't an environmentalist website:

Uses for Oil

Oil is an important part of daily life in Canada and the world. Oil is used to move us, heat our homes, and make everyday consumer products. Learn how oil is used.
www.capp.ca www.capp.ca

Nevermind plastics used casually is already on the hit-list as well (and plastics sequester carbon instead of dumping it in the atmosphere like burning oil as a fuel does). It's only a matter of time before oil cease to be the energy source of choice for certain modes of transportation.

AoD
 
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slickpete83 said:
crude oil has many other uses then just gasoline , look it up like plastics , feedstock , Plexiglass, asphalt ,clothing etc..
think about how much minerals & oil is required to build this green economy they are planning
we will be using it for long time
Click to expand...
Plastics etc. can be made from green feedstocks. Just a matter of how cheap renewable energy will become and to what extent oil is faced with paying for associated environmental damage.
 
gabe said:
Electric cars are fine for commuting/errands in the city. I travel with my job. Charging stations are few and far between in the smaller towns. My neighbor has a Tesla, he takes his wife's gas powered Honda Civic, when they go to the cottage or travel to the US.
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It depends on your tolerance. They can definitely be used for road tripping. Charging infrastructure is not as advanced in Canada as US, but it's coming.
 
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