High-Speed Rail Proposals (was Post: Alberta)
Link to article
Albertans hear that train comin'
The province has long dreamed of a high-speed line
Kevin Libin
National Post
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
CALGARY - Albertans have dreamed of a bullet train whisking them between Calgary and Edmonton almost since there have been bullet trains.
And for nearly as long, skeptics dismissed the idea as economically unrealistic. But after the province revealed recently that it is buying up land in both major cities that may one day serve as high-speed rail terminals, suddenly, Albertans are starting to think they hear that train a comin', fast.
Love the idea or hate it -- and there are plenty on either side -- there is, according to one provincial Tory insider, "really good traction" for the idea in the power corridors of Edmonton.
Finance Minister Lyle Oberg enthusiastically backed the idea while campaigning for the party leadership last fall.
And Premier Ed Stelmach, while still a transport minister, met a few years back with executives of at least one major rail firm interested in bidding on the project.
Right now, the province is studying the patterns of passengers up and down the northsouth corridor -- snapping photos of cars at each end of the Queen Elizabeth 2 highway and surveying drivers, bus and airline passengers about how much they would pay to cut down on their travel time.
Rather than a three-hour drive or a plane trip that could take nearly as long, after accounting for airport cab rides, a high-speed passenger train could zip from downtown Calgary to downtown Edmonton, with a stop midway in booming Red Deer, in anywhere from 60 to 90 minutes (depending on whether it is a fast diesel, an electric TGV or one of those ridiculously cool magnetic-levitation trains).
And spending an hour with a glass of Chablis and a copy of the National Post on your lap, instead of jostling with transport truckers for space on an underscenic and overcrowded stretch of highway, has got to be worth a lot.
But the bigger question may be how much taxpayers are willing to shell out for a flashy new people-mover.
"You can't make a good economic case for it right now," says Frank Atkins, a University of Calgary economist who has studied transport issues in the province.
To justify it, he says, "you've got to have some vision and be willing to say 'if you build it they will come.' "
Most high-speed trains move between contiguous, extremely dense urban networks. Japan's famous high-speed rail system, for instance, which connects Kobe, Osaka and Tokyo, serves a population of 60 million -- and still requires subsidization.
The number of people in and around Calgary, Red Deer and Edmonton is about 2.5 million.
Then there's the price tag: anywhere from $6-billion to $12-billion, says Jerry Belikka, a spokesman for the provincial infrastructure and transportation department.
That doesn't include annual operation subsidies.
Alberta is aware enough of its worrisome addiction to outof- control spending that on the same day Mr. Oberg delivered his record $33-billion budget last week, a 17% increase over 2006, he warned that "we just can't keep raising our spending at these levels," without facing a deficit.
So, now might not be the best time to shop around for pricey new projects. Already, labour and material shortages are doubling the price of major capital plans in the province.
According to a 2004 report from Aalborg University in Denmark, nine out of 10 major rail projects worldwide run over budget, and on average, end up with less than half the passengers planners promised.
And the airlines and bus companies now serving provincial travellers will surely point out that a provincially backed rail competitor would make a liar out a pro-privatization PC party that once promised to get the government out of "the business of being in business."
Not surprisingly, the transport ministry is careful to downplay suggestions the government is readying to roll with rapid rail.
"We're always looking 20 years ahead," Mr. Bellika explains about the land purchases. The province, he says, is hedging, locking up land now just in case it needs it sometime in the future.
Still, it must do something about the growing congestion up and down the QE2, where 50,000 cars and trucks rumble daily. Simply expanding the highway from four to six lanes could cost more than $1-billion.
The province has promised in the past that any high-speed rail project would be built with a financial hand from the private sector.
And with politicians eager to shore up their environmentalist credentials, a promise to take SUV drivers off the road and put them into rail cars might offer more than just good PR.
It could convince Ottawa, under pressure from pro-Kyoto groups to go after the province with the most greenhouse-gas emissions, to chip in, too -- leaving not just Albertans, but taxpayers in all 10 provinces on the hook.
In the end, that might be just the fuel to get a high-speed train moving. After years of picking up the tab for goodies in other provinces, the irresistible appeal to Albertans of sailing in style along a ribbon of steel subsidized by Easterners, might be what it takes to finally make this project politically palatable.
- - -
HIGH-SPEED PROJECTS
PARIS-STRASBOURG
Latest extension to France's high-speed network is due to open in June, with trains able to travel up to 320 km/h.
HANOI-HO CHI MINH CITY
Vietnam announced plans in February for a $37-billion, 1,630-km network with trains travelling up to 320 km/h.
SAN FRANCISCO-SAN DIEGO
California is studying French rail for proposal that would cover 1,100 km to San Francisco to L.A. and San Diego.
SHANGHAI-BEIJING
This summer China plans to have 36 trains connecting Shanghai to Beijing, Chongqing and other cities, travelling at 200-250 km/h.
